Drift away from West and rising emigration: what AI predicts for Georgia in 2026
AI Forecast for Georgia in 2026
We asked five different artificial intelligence models — ChatGPT, Grok, Claude AI, DeepSeek AI and GigaChat — what lies ahead for Georgia in 2026.
The questions were put in English. The responses have been edited for length, with direct quotations used in some cases.
Will the Georgian Dream party remain in power until the end of 2026?
ChatGPT: “Likely, but not guaranteed.”
The probability that Georgian Dream will remain in power until the end of 2026 is estimated at 55–65%. According to the model, the government could only be removed through large-scale, organised pressure. Georgian Dream, however, “controls all key institutions — the parliamentary majority, the courts, the security services and much of the media — which makes its survival easier”.
At the same time, the opposition is fragmented and “unable to translate public discontent into sustained political pressure”.
In short, Georgian Dream is likely to endure, but will be “weaker, less cohesive and more authoritarian than it is today”.
Grok: Most likely, yes. It is expected to remain in power thanks to its “control over institutions and the persecution of opponents”, as well as “economic growth and pragmatic ties with Russia”. The opposition, the model argues, has already missed a favourable moment to force a change of power.
“A regime change would require violent protests or coordinated international pressure (such as the suspension of the EU visa-free regime). At present, however, we are seeing protest fatigue and the resilience of Georgian Dream.”
Claude AI: Likely to remain in power with a 75–80% probability. All state institutions are in the hands of Georgian Dream, a trend cemented by the municipal elections in October 2025. The government has also stepped up repression.
“Equally important is the fact that Georgia’s economy grew by 7.9% in 2025, giving the government a financial safety cushion.”
An opposition victory would require a “dramatic escalation” that brings previously neutral citizens onto the streets, a split within the ruling elite, or strong pressure from the West.
The model of governance pursued by Georgian Dream resembles those of Slovakia and Hungary, and currently faces no immediate threat.
DeepSeek AI: Yes, it is likely to remain in power, with a probability of around 70%. “The main risks could come from serious unrest and divisions among key elites, which might lead to early parliamentary elections.”
GigaChat: “I do not have my own opinions, nor do I disseminate the views of my creators…”
Will Georgia be even further from the EU and NATO by the end of 2026?
ChatGPT, Grok, and Claude AI all predict that Georgia will move further away from both the EU and NATO.
ChatGPT: The probability is 60–70%. This is expected “due to internal political choices rather than external rejection… EU countries are increasingly wary of Russia and will not engage with a government they consider unreliable.”
Grok: In Brussels, they say that Georgia’s candidate status for EU membership exists only on paper. The country’s EU accession by 2030 is unlikely.
Архив событий: 2024, 2023, 2021, 2020, 2019, 2018, 2017, 2016, 2015
Claude AI: By the end of 2026, Georgia is expected to be even more isolated. Official Tbilisi will move further away from Brussels, likely continuing to ban opposition parties, repress protesters, and use anti-European rhetoric.
DeepSeek AI: Claims that Georgia has “moved slightly closer” to EU membership.
GigaChat: Declined to comment on the matter.
What will the level of emigration from Georgia be in 2026?
ChatGPT, Grok, and Claude AI all give similar estimates, predicting that around 60–80,000 people will leave Georgia in 2026. The main reasons cited are lack of economic opportunities, political crisis, and a freeze in EU integration.
Claude AI: A “wave of political emigration” is expected in 2026, as the government has labelled civil society a “local pseudo-elite”. Additionally, the EU is threatening to suspend Georgia’s visa-free regime, which could prompt people to leave before this happens, potentially raising the number of emigrants to 100,000.
DeepSeek AI: 20–30,000.
GigaChat: 10–20,000, assuming Georgia “maintains socio-economic stability.”
Will the war in Ukraine continue or end?
ChatGPT, Grok, and Claude AI all predict that the war in Ukraine will continue, though a temporary ceasefire is possible.
ChatGPT: The probability of a frozen conflict is 40–50%. Russia is withstanding sanctions pressure, while Ukraine is not surrendering.
Grok: Russia is advancing in Donetsk very slowly and with heavy losses. At this pace, it is unlikely to fully occupy the region before 2027–2028. The likelihood that the war will continue into 2027 is 75%.
Claude AI: It is unclear what Putin intends. His goal may be to destroy Ukraine’s statehood rather than just seize territory. A temporary ceasefire is possible in 2026, but the war is unlikely to end.
DeepSeek AI: The probability of conflict ending is 60%. “A final resolution would require sudden political changes.”
GigaChat: “I cannot answer this question. It may involve a sensitive or ambiguous topic.”
ChatGPT is owned by the American company OpenAI.
Grok is owned by xAI, a company founded by Elon Musk, the world’s richest person.
Claude AI is owned by the American company Anthropic.
DeepSeek AI was created in 2023 by the Chinese company High Flyer and is subject to censorship by the Chinese Communist Party.
GigaChat is owned by the Russian corporation Sberbank.
AI Forecast for Georgia in 2026
