Diesel vs. EV: Why electric cars have yet to become mainstream in Lithuania
Electric Cars in Eastern Europe
Lithuania’s plans for a rapid transition to electric vehicles have collided with reality: high prices, technological limitations, income levels, and deeply rooted driving habits. In a country where roughly 64 percent of cars run on diesel, EVs remain a niche choice. But rising fuel prices amid the wars in Ukraine and the Middle East have revived the question: could crisis push Lithuania toward electric cars?
A report by Novaya Gazeta Baltia.
“I Can Drive From Vilnius to Berlin for Five Euros”
Lithuania has around two million cars, but only slightly more than 1 percent are electric vehicles. The government offers purchase subsidies, discounted parking, and access to A+ lanes, yet EVs have still not become mainstream.
One of those relatively rare owners is Hayal Azizov, who has lived in Vilnius for eight years. He chose a used 2013 Tesla Model S for practical reasons.
“I used to drive a diesel Volvo that constantly needed refueling because I travel long distances quite often. A round trip to Riga, for example, would cost me €65 to €70. Then there was the regular maintenance — oil changes, filters. Once I calculated what an average trip in an electric car would cost, the decision basically made itself.
“In the end, my expenses were cut nearly in half. Over two years of owning the Tesla, I drove about 150,000 kilometers, and maintenance and repairs cost me €2,500.”
Despite the car’s age, the battery still provides a range of about 300 kilometers in summer and up to 280 in winter. Hayal says driving an EV has also changed his habits behind the wheel: “You move into the right lane, set the cruise control, and just enjoy the drive.”
In Vilnius, he says, charging stations are no longer a problem. Several operators now make it possible to find an available charger within a few kilometers almost anywhere in the city. On a slower charger, one kilowatt-hour costs about 30 euro cents, meaning 100 kilometers of driving comes to roughly €4.50 to €5.
But the biggest savings, he says, come during long-distance travel. He uses Tesla’s Supercharger network — still free for his vehicle — along routes through Kaunas, Białystok, Warsaw, Poznań and Berlin.
“In the end, a trip to Germany costs me about five euros,” he says. “In theory, I could probably make it all the way to Portugal, though I haven’t tried yet.”
Environmental concerns matter to him as well. “Cities would be cleaner if more people managed to overcome their fears and skepticism,” he says. Concerns about running out of charging stations on highways, in his view, are largely exaggerated.
The only reason he would consider returning to a gasoline or diesel car, he adds, would be a sharp change in his financial situation.
“Diesel Was Cheaper Than Gasoline — and for Me, It Was the Best Choice”
But the experience of a Tesla owner bears little resemblance to that of the average Lithuanian driver. Diesel cars still dominate the country’s roads: by various estimates, they account for between 65 and 70 percent of the national vehicle fleet.
Vilnius resident Darius Bakanauskas drives a Volkswagen Golf TDI. He bought the car in 2015, when diesel fuel was still cheaper than gasoline.
“I wasn’t interested in whether the car was electric or not,” he says. “The most important factor was the price: German engineering, inexpensive spare parts, affordable repairs and maintenance.”
For many people in Lithuania, a new car remains simply out of reach. According to Eurostat, the average age of a vehicle in the country reached 14 to 15 years in 2024. Buying decisions are shaped not only by the purchase price, but also by the long-term cost of repairs.
Volkswagen models, Darius says, are cheaper to maintain in Lithuania than Toyotas, largely because the country is closely tied to the German spare-parts market.
Environmental arguments do little to persuade him.
“I don’t think cars are the main threat,” Darius says. “There are factories, industrial plants, massive workshops. An ordinary person driving a car — no matter how far — won’t pollute in a year as much as some enterprise does in a month.”
Research, however, suggests that roughly 30 percent of air pollution in Lithuania is linked to road transport, while in cities the figure rises to between 60 and 80 percent.
Even today, Darius says, he would choose a car based primarily on fuel prices: if diesel were cheaper, he would buy diesel; if gasoline were cheaper, he would switch to gasoline. An electric vehicle, he says, is not something he would consider — citing the purchase price, doubts about long-term maintenance costs, battery disposal, and the amount of electronics involved.
He is also skeptical of the infrastructure. If electric vehicles suddenly became widespread, he believes, the charging network would not be able to handle the demand, especially outside major cities.
“What we are seeing instead is lower fuel taxes”
Eduardas Kriščiūnas, president of the Lithuanian Pedestrians’ Association, notes with irony that interest in electric vehicles faded almost as soon as government subsidies for purchases ended. He advocates reducing car dependency in Vilnius, though he acknowledges that if the choice is between two forms of private transport, electric vehicles are less harmful to urban life.
“If we truly want to reduce pollution levels in cities, then at the very least access to the city center should be restricted for the main sources of emissions,” he says. “Instead, what we are seeing is the opposite process: lower excise taxes on fuel.”
In his view, such policies effectively encourage the continued use of diesel cars. Fuel excise taxes, he argues, should function as a pollution tax: the more harmful the product, the fewer incentives there should be to use it.
“As long as electric vehicles are not financially advantageous, private buyers will not purchase them,” Kriščiūnas says. “Companies buy EVs because they are less concerned with the sticker price and more with tax incentives, profits and employee benefits.”
But the issue, he argues, goes beyond cost. Technology itself remains a barrier.
Kriščiūnas recalls a trip to Šiauliai in a vehicle belonging to the Ministry of Transport. The driver chose a diesel station wagon because they needed to return to Vilnius the same day, and there were doubts about whether an electric vehicle would have enough range.
Infrastructure, however, is a solvable problem, he says. The market is competitive, and supply will eventually adjust to demand.
Another factor is Europe’s climate commitments. By 2030, Lithuania is expected to reduce harmful emissions by 21 percent compared with 2005 levels. But rising car ownership is making that target increasingly difficult to reach.
The European Union’s system of emissions quotas, borrowing and trading allows countries to offset shortfalls. At the same time, critics say, it also postpones more painful structural changes.
Secondary market and systemic inertia
Economist and member of the Lithuanian Parliament, Ekateryna Rojaka, argues that the slow transition to electric vehicles in the Baltic states is driven less by a lack of policy than by the structure of the existing vehicle fleet.
In Lithuania, roughly one in six or seven cars runs on diesel. In Latvia, diesel vehicles account for about 60 to 65 percent of the fleet; in Estonia, 50 to 55 percent; and the EU average stands at roughly 40 to 45 percent. At the same time, Lithuania’s car fleet remains among the oldest in Europe.
“In Lithuania, since 2020, the number of electric vehicles has increased more than elevenfold. In 2025 alone, an average of 1,375 cars were added per month, but unfortunately this still barely changes the overall picture.”
A similar situation is observed across the European Union. In 2025, electric vehicles account for around 15–20 percent of new car sales, yet their share of the total vehicle fleet remains low due to the cumulative effect of past decades.
The main drivers are the used-car market and systemic inertia. In the Baltic states, for every new car, there are as many as five to ten used vehicles, mostly diesel-powered and 10 to 15 years old. As a result, more than 97 percent of cars in Lithuania still have internal combustion engines. Even an active policy shift, experts say, would only produce a visible effect over 10 to 15 years.
“Electric vehicles are not competing with new gasoline cars,” Rojaka says. “They are competing with cheap used diesel cars—and for now, they are losing in that segment.”
Electrification remains largely an urban phenomenon: around 40 percent of electric vehicles are registered in Vilnius. Outside major cities, infrastructure is developing slowly and requires significant investment.
At the same time, Rojaka says change is necessary. Older vehicles impose real costs on society—air pollution and additional pressure on the healthcare system. But, she argues, this should not be addressed through bans, but through predictable policy: stable subsidies, clear rules, development of public transport, expansion of charging infrastructure, and limits on the most polluting vehicles.
“Lithuania faces a difficult autumn”
Rising diesel prices—first after Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine, and later due to the war in the Middle East—have exposed the country’s vulnerability to dependence on older technologies and imported fuels.
Lithuania’s Prime Minister, Inga Ruginienė, has warned that the country faces a difficult autumn, with economic slowdown and rising prices expected. She has urged residents to make greater use of public transport and electric vehicles.
At the same time, the Lithuanian Parliament is considering amendments to the law on alternative fuels. If adopted, fuel stations with more than three pumps would be required to install fast-charging points for electric vehicles.
“The world is facing an ongoing oil crisis, and the past few months have clearly shown how quickly and directly oil prices respond to political or military decisions,” said Thomas Tomilinas, the sponsor of the amendments. He argued that such infrastructure would prompt some drivers to reconsider purchasing electric vehicles.
Lithuania’s Minister of Transport, Juras Taminskas, told Novaya Gazeta Baltia that investment in electric vehicles is only effective when paired with the rapid expansion of charging infrastructure, targeted subsidies, and tax incentives.
But the main barrier, he said, remains unchanged: “Electric vehicles are still largely inaccessible to lower-income households, effectively limiting ownership to more affluent people.”
According to him, the ministry plans to discuss new financial instruments for lower-income families with the ministries of finance, energy, and environment.
For now, Lithuania’s choice appears straightforward: environmental logic favors electric vehicles, while economic reality still favors older diesel cars. And it is this reality—not the absence of political slogans—that determines the pace of transition.
Produced with the support of the Media Network
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