Robert Kocharyan named prime minister candidate: will he become represent opposition in Armenia’s upcoming elections?
Kocharyan as PM candidate: Armenia elections
Former Armenian president Robert Kocharyan will run as a candidate for prime minister from the Armenia bloc in the parliamentary elections scheduled for June.
At the end of January, Kocharyan said no one could “lead the country out of this situation” better than him. At that time, however, he did not say that he himself would be the candidate for prime minister.
“We will conduct a sociological survey and decide who will lead the bloc. If the poll shows that it is me, I will take the lead. If it is someone else, then they will lead. I will be very glad if it is not me. A great burden will fall from my shoulders,” he said.
At a ceremony held the day before in Yerevan, organisers confirmed that Kocharyan will take part in the elections together with the ARF Dashnaktsutyun party and the Forward party as part of the bloc.
Experts now say Kocharyan and his bloc risk failing to enter parliament. Armenian political analysts point out that electoral blocs must clear an 8% threshold. They say this will be a difficult task for a force led by the former president.
Below, we look at which political forces plan to take part in the elections, whom they have named as prime ministerial candidates, who could become the “face” of the opposition, and what experts and social media users say.
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Political forces taking part in the elections and their candidates for prime minister
Here is a list of political forces that have announced they will take part in the parliamentary elections:
- The ruling Civil Contract party (prime ministerial candidate — Nikol Pashinyan)
- Strong Armenia (prime ministerial candidate — businessman Samvel Karapetyan, who is under house arrest on charges of calling for a seizure of power)
- Prosperous Armenia (has not yet named a prime ministerial candidate; party leader, businessman Gagik Tsarukyan, says he does not seek the post)
- Armenian National Congress (prime ministerial candidate — Levon Zurabyan)
- Republic (prime ministerial candidate — former prime minister Aram Sargsyan)
- Wings of Unity political initiative (prime ministerial candidate — former ombudsman Arman Tatoyan)
- DOK party (prime ministerial candidate — blogger Vardan Ghukasyan, who is in a US prison)
- “I Am Against All” movement (has not yet announced its prime ministerial candidate)
The Republican Party of Armenia, led by former president Serzh Sargsyan, has not yet decided whether to take part in the elections. The Homeland party, led by former National Security Service chief Artur Vanetsyan, initially announced it would participate. However, in late February, it decided not to run. Vanetsyan called on his supporters to vote for “any genuinely opposition force.”
Ruling party suggests opposition is betting on Kocharyan
Representatives of the ruling party highlight shifts within the opposition camp ahead of the elections. They point out that some members of former president Robert Kocharyan’s team have joined the Strong Armenia party, led by Russian businessman Samvel Karapetyan. They believe the new party aims to help Kocharyan become prime minister.
Samvel Karapetyan himself cannot run for the post. Armenia’s constitution does not allow it, as he holds citizenship of Armenia, Russia and Cyprus.
His nephew, Narek Karapetyan, a member of the party’s political council, gave an evasive response when local media asked about possible cooperation with Kocharyan’s bloc. He said he had never met Robert Kocharyan.
“According to all polls, Strong Armenia, Samvel Karapetyan’s party, is the leading opposition force,” Narek Karapetyan said.
He added that Samvel Karapetyan would go all the way, overcome poverty and ensure security in the country.
“Having started this process in Armenia and spent seven months in an NSS detention centre, he will see it through and personally deliver these changes.”
Robert Kocharyan: “Our goal is victory”
Kocharyan delivered a keynote speech to his supporters. Organisers invited him onto the stage as “the first president of the Republic of Artsakh [the former unrecognised NKR] and the second president of the Republic of Armenia”.
When he reached the podium, he stressed that becoming a candidate for prime minister was “not a promotion, but a step down” for him, but said he was ready to do anything for the sake of the country.
“We are determined, our goal is victory. I am sure that the evil represented by this government will be defeated. I have fought them since their first day in power and will not rest until they are gone,” he said.
Kocharyan said one of Armenia’s main tasks in the coming years is to ensure security. He added that this requires “a combat-ready army, a strong leader and a powerful ally”. Kocharyan has long held pro-Russian views, so his remark likely referred to Russia.
On the peace process with Azerbaijan, he said he supports peace but only with “real security guarantees.”
Expert opinion
Political analyst Robert Ghevondyan commented on the chances of Kocharyan’s Armenia bloc entering parliament:
“In fact, there was some intrigue over whether Kocharyan would run as part of a bloc or lead the list of the Dashnaktsutyun party to try to pass the electoral threshold.
By choosing to lead the Armenia bloc, Kocharyan is taking a risk. He needs to secure 8%, which is quite a difficult task. Samvel Karapetyan’s force has taken a large share of the votes that Kocharyan received in the 2021 elections.
If he gains 6–7% and finishes third, he still will not enter parliament under the current law. Prosperous Armenia, led by Gagik Tsarukyan, would become the third force to pass the threshold after securing more than 4%.
In essence, Kocharyan has to take this risk if he wants Russian circles, which brought Samvel Karapetyan into Armenian politics, to continue seeing him as an important figure. […]
The forecast looks like this:
- First place will go to the ruling Civil Contract party, which will most likely form the government.
- Second place will go to Strong Armenia, which could win 20–30% of the vote.
- Third place will go to the Armenia bloc, with 6–8%. Whether it enters parliament will depend on whether it reaches the 8% threshold.
- Fourth place will go to Prosperous Armenia, which could win 5–7% and enter parliament, as it is a party rather than a bloc. [The threshold for parties is 4%.]
Other political forces have much lower chances of passing the threshold.”
Social media reactions
Users in the Armenian segment of social media are actively discussing the decision by the Armenia bloc to nominate Robert Kocharyan as its candidate for prime minister. Most reactions are critical.
Here are some of the comments:
“I don’t want to burn in that fire a second time.”
“Congratulations, and I wish you victory in the elections, Robert Kocharyan.”
“Hey, mothball-smelling relic, don’t you realise there is no way back, even if you tear yourself apart?”
“Most people clearly understand who your candidate is — the governor of your hearts and of Russia. He will never become the prime minister of Armenian hearts.”
“It’s like in fairy tales: you cut off a dragon’s heads, and they grow back again.”
“This man lost Artsakh, his ancestral home and family grave. If he does not fight for Artsakh, then who will?”
“Change the name of the bloc. What does it have to do with Armenia?”
“This alliance will not be elected again. It is outdated and rotten, and we have changed. We have already lived through our fears, we have seen everything and gone through it all. But this self-confident leech, this parasite, still cannot understand that his time has passed. That is his problem.”
Kocharyan as PM candidate: Armenia elections
