Russia's pressure on Armenia ahead of elections: economy as tool of influence
Russian pressure on Armenia ahead of elections
From 30 May, Russia will ban imports of tomatoes, cucumbers, peppers, herbs and strawberries from Armenia. Since early spring 2026, Moscow has steadily expanded restrictions on Armenian exports.
The measures first targeted Jermuk mineral water, followed by certain alcoholic drinks. Russia’s Federal Service for Veterinary and Phytosanitary Surveillance later imposed a temporary ban on imports of flowers and ornamental plants from Armenia. The agency also raised concerns about shipments of Armenian fruit, vegetables and some livestock products.
Russian authorities say the restrictions stem from sanitary and phytosanitary concerns. However, many Armenian analysts see political motives behind the measures. Moscow has previously used similar trade restrictions against Georgia and Moldova.
Armenia also recently received a letter from Russia warning that Moscow could terminate an agreement governing supplies of natural gas, petroleum products and rough diamonds.
According to Interfax, the letter states:
“Armenia’s continued efforts to deepen cooperation with the European Union, together with the government’s declared ambition to join the EU, threaten the future of Russian-Armenian trade, economic and investment cooperation. Bilateral agreements form one of the foundations of that relationship.”
Armenia’s Foreign Ministry said it would review the letter and respond if necessary.
Foreign Minister Ararat Mirzoyan said similar disputes had arisen before. He stressed that Yerevan remained committed to resolving them in a “constructive and partnership-based atmosphere” while continuing to diversify the economy and seek new markets.
Russian officials have repeatedly voiced concern over Armenia’s growing ties with Europe in recent months. Some members of Russia’s political establishment have called on Yerevan to clarify whether it intends to remain in the Russia-led Eurasian Economic Union or move closer to the European Union.
Armenian officials have repeatedly acknowledged that membership in both blocs is incompatible and say they will make a choice when the time comes. Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan has argued that Armenia must first bring its economy and institutions closer to European standards. He described that process as difficult and time-consuming. According to Pashinyan, the Armenian people will make the final decision once the country is ready.
Speaking recently, Pashinyan reiterated that Armenia has no plans to leave the Eurasian Economic Union. He also argued that anyone seeking to pressure Armenia is “digging a grave” for the EAEU itself.
“Today, Armenia matters to the East, the West, the South and the North alike. That is why everyone should come to Armenia with their best offer. The Armenian people will make their own choice. We are no longer a dead end shaped by conflict; we are a crossroads of peace. Those who rely on threats and pressure are making a mistake. The Armenian economy faces no danger. Investments worth billions are on the way. Our strategy remains unchanged. We will continue to work calmly and patiently with our Russian partners and resolve all outstanding issues,” the prime minister said.
Many experts see the recent developments as an attempt by Moscow to increase pressure on Yerevan ahead of Armenia’s parliamentary elections.
The vote will take place on 7 June, and several pro-Russian political forces are taking part. Some analysts believe the Kremlin hopes the pressure will strengthen their electoral prospects. Others argue that such actions are more likely to damage those forces than benefit them.
Political analyst Robert Ghevondyan believes the economic pressure is temporary. At the same time, he argues that Armenia’s dependence on the Russian market has made it vulnerable to such measures. He says the best response is to continue diversifying the country’s economic partnerships.
- Pashinyan comments on gas prices, recent assault and exposing agents as key election looms
- ‘We are not inclined to create tension’ – Yerevan responds to Moscow’s claims of ‘unfriendly steps’
- Russian intelligence operatives sent to ‘target Pashinyan’: The Insider investigation
Political analyst Robert Ghevondyan’s view
Economic restrictions as a tool of political pressure
“We should remember what happened in 2004–2005. After Mikheil Saakashvili came to power in Georgia, Russian authorities suddenly began claiming that Borjomi contained harmful substances. At the time, Armenian Jermuk was seen as a high-quality alternative. Now the situation has reversed. Today, Armenia’s authorities are taking steps that Moscow dislikes, and suddenly Jermuk has become ‘problematic’.
This is not a new policy for Armenia. I think the situation will last only a few weeks at most. After the parliamentary elections, Moscow will most likely lift the restrictions on Armenian products, either gradually or all at once. For now, Armenian producers simply need to weather this period.
In my view, what is happening is directly linked to the elections. Russia is trying to increase pressure on Armenia in order to support pro-Russian political forces inside the country and give them additional arguments with which to criticise the government. At the same time, Moscow is signalling its dissatisfaction with Yerevan’s current course and attempting to influence the choices Armenian voters make.”
Moscow’s post-election plan
“Why do I say the pressure may last only a few weeks? Because after the elections, continuing to pressure Armenia will no longer make much sense for Moscow. Russia may spend several days waiting for some kind of post-election turmoil. However, I do not think that is likely. Such a scenario would require large-scale public mobilisation, and pro-Russian political forces in Armenia simply do not have those human resources today.
Online campaigns on Facebook, Instagram or TikTok cannot replace a real grassroots movement. Once Moscow realises that the post-election situation has not altered Armenia’s domestic political balance, it will probably move to a ‘Plan B’ — maintaining working relations with Nikol Pashinyan. At that point, the Russian side is likely to take steps aimed at preserving at least the current level of relations with Yerevan.”
Russia also has an interest in Armenian products
“In reality, it is not in Russia’s interest to keep restrictions on Armenian products in place for a long period. Armenian exports do not account for a critical share of the Russian economy. However, these products occupy their own niche and enjoy steady demand. They include mineral water, agricultural goods and alcoholic beverages. Among them is Armenian brandy, which remains popular on the Russian market.
We also need to take Russia’s own market dynamics into account. Even under restrictions, some of these products will continue to reach consumers through various channels because demand remains strong. The Kremlin understands this perfectly well. Russian officials will also recognise that prolonged pressure is unlikely to produce significant political results inside Armenia. That is why I believe these measures will most likely prove temporary.”
New markets and product competitiveness
“It is clear that Armenia currently has no alternative market capable of replacing Russia as a destination for Armenian exports on the same scale. However, the government’s task is to build a more diversified export system and help producers find new markets.
Producers themselves must also improve product quality in order to increase competitiveness and meet the standards required by other markets, particularly in Europe. At the same time, Armenia should look towards Arab countries, the Asia-Pacific region and North America.
Canada, for example, expressed interest in importing Armenian dried fruit. In practice, however, Armenia could not supply the required volumes. Even though logistics issues had been resolved and demand existed, Armenian businesses failed to meet even 10% of the market’s needs.
In other words, potential markets do exist, but entering them requires systematic effort. Producers need to improve both quality and output, while the state must continue developing external economic ties. Over time, this would allow Armenia to feel more secure and avoid excessive dependence on a single export market.
Logistics remain a major constraint on Armenian exports. A significant share of the country’s foreign trade still depends on the route through Upper Lars checkpoint. If Yerevan wants to expand export opportunities, it needs to work towards opening its borders with Turkey and Azerbaijan. That would significantly simplify access to European markets and reduce transport costs for Armenian producers.”
Russian pressure on Armenia ahead of elections
