Armenia-Azerbaijan exports could begin 'soon': Pledges, figures and remaining barriers
Exports from Armenia to Azerbaijan
Armenian Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan told journalists that “exports from Armenia to Azerbaijan could begin in the near future”. He also said that bilateral trade was already on the agenda. According to Pashinyan, Azerbaijani specialists visited Armenia in September 2025 and January 2026 to discuss infrastructure issues, including power lines, railways and pipelines.
The statement comes against the backdrop of tangible but still highly asymmetrical trade relations between the two countries, which began to take shape following the signing of the declaration in Washington in August 2025.
Official data and figures
According to Azerbaijan’s State Customs Committee, Azerbaijan exported around $17.4m worth of goods to Armenia between January and July 2026. The shipments consisted mainly of petroleum products, particularly diesel and petrol. Over the same period, Azerbaijan’s indirect imports from Armenia amounted to just $960. This figure was recorded in March, with imports falling to zero in subsequent months.
Following the lifting of transit restrictions in October 2025 and the start of the first fuel deliveries in December, Azerbaijan has facilitated both direct exports to Armenia and the transit of goods from Russia and Kazakhstan, including grain, fertilisers and other products. Volumes remain small, but the direction of travel has changed: borders that had been closed for decades have effectively begun to open.
There has yet to be any official commercial export from Armenia. In January 2026, Armenian Economy Minister Gevorg Papoyan said the two sides had exchanged lists of potential goods for bilateral trade. These included aluminium foil and raw materials for its production, ferromolybdenum, textiles, flowers, greenhouse produce including tomatoes and peppers, raw materials for brandy production, and other goods.
The specific contents of the lists and the expected volumes of shipments have not yet been officially published. Further development of trade will depend on agreements between companies.
What could be traded, and why?
Azerbaijani experts note that, at the initial stage, developing trade in industrial goods and raw materials appears more realistic than focusing primarily on food products. Vugar Bayramov, an MP and member of the Milli Majlis Committee on Economic Policy, citing preliminary estimates, puts the potential annual trade turnover for 38 categories of goods at up to $300m. These include food and industrial products as well as raw materials. In his view, mutual supplies of goods other than fuel could begin between the two countries in the near future.
Economist Natig Jafarli says the process is developing gradually. According to him, Azerbaijan has an advantage in energy resources, while potential Armenian exports could include agricultural products, fish, fruit and iron ore. However, Azerbaijan is not yet importing goods from Armenia, while the necessary infrastructure, including bank transfers, insurance and contractual mechanisms, has yet to be fully established.
Akif Nasirli, chairman of the Centre for Liberal Economists, believes food products could also be viable export candidates, including fruit and vegetables such as apricots, peaches, cherries, tomatoes and peppers, as well as fish, mineral water and wine. In his view, restrictions on the Russian market are forcing Yerevan to seek alternative export markets.
Former Finance Minister Fikret Yusifov has previously argued that, if trade relations are restored, a trade deficit for Armenia would be inevitable, but that these economic ties should nevertheless be developed for the sake of peace.
There is also a widespread view among experts that food and beverages are psychologically more sensitive categories of goods. Construction materials, cable and electrical products, industrial raw materials, chemicals and light-industry goods, by contrast, may be perceived considerably more favourably.
Psychological barrier
This is one of the deepest and most sensitive aspects of the issue. Expert assessments published by Caliber note that memories of the 44-day war remain fresh. The appearance of products labelled Made in Armenia on shop shelves could initially provoke mixed reactions, ranging from curiosity to social media campaigns. Trust in food and beverages, including wine and brandy, is particularly important, as some consumers may have irrational concerns about their safety. With industrial goods and construction materials, by contrast, the country of origin is less visible to consumers and purchasing decisions tend to be more pragmatic.
During a transitional period, neutral packaging in English or Russian, or rebranding, could potentially be used. The appearance of Azerbaijani fuel on the Armenian market has already created a precedent for a kind of “economic truce”. A similarly pragmatic approach could work in the opposite direction, although this will not happen automatically.
In both societies, support for peace does not yet necessarily translate into an equally positive attitude towards goods from the neighbouring country. Traders from border areas who wished to remain anonymous, as well as entrepreneurs with experience of informal “re-exports” through Georgia using channels that have existed since the 1990s, say that price and quality could eventually become the decisive factors. However, this process could take years.
Practical obstacles and possible timeframes
Issues surrounding certification, phytosanitary controls, customs procedures, bank transfers and insurance have yet to be fully resolved.
Logistics currently operate mainly through Georgia. Direct rail links and the TRIPP corridor are still at the infrastructure development stage. Competition also remains high, with suppliers from Turkey, Russia and Iran already present in the market alongside domestic producers. The competitiveness of Armenian goods will therefore depend on their price, quality and logistics costs.
Under an optimistic scenario, small-scale shipments of industrial goods and raw materials could begin within several months to a year. A more realistic scenario would see trade gradually expand over one to three years, while under a pessimistic scenario, political fluctuations and public reaction could delay the process considerably.
What to watch next
Key indicators could include the first genuine commercial shipments from Armenia appearing in customs statistics, the introduction of banking mechanisms for cross-border payments, official approval of a list of potential goods for trade, and changes in the procurement policies of retailers such as Bravo, Araz and others.
Independent polling and sociological research in both countries will also be needed to assess public attitudes towards goods labelled “Made in …”. Without such data, statements about future trade will remain largely expressions of intent.
