Opinion: 'Removing Kobakhidze would be logical move for Ivanishvili if prime minister does not move against him first'

Opinion on Georgian Prime Minister Kobakhidze

According to Eka Gigauri, executive director of Transparency International Georgia, removing Prime Minister Kobakhidze could eventually become a logical step for Ivanishvili — provided the prime minister does not manage to seize political power himself.

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1. None of this has anything to do with fighting corruption. Ivanishvili is reshuffling his inner circle, while Kobakhidze — with his approval and Mdinaradze’s assistance — is getting rid of political rivals. In “Georgian Dream”, no one is surprised when people enrich themselves at the public’s expense or engage in corruption: they all steal. The entire system is built on corruption, and Ivanishvili gave them the freedom to do so. So the “fight against corruption” is merely a staged performance designed to conceal a settling of scores.
2. Kobakhidze does not get his hands dirty himself. He has Mdinaradze to do that for him, who has become his loyal executor and servant.
3. It is obvious that the overwhelming majority of “Georgian Dream” supporters genuinely support Garibashvili. The same cannot be said of Kobakhidze and Mdinaradze. Look at the reactions from “Dream” supporters to statements by Garibashvili and his wife. If the authorities imprisoned Mdinaradze and then Kobakhidze, “Dream” supporters would not say a word in their defence. To them, Kobakhidze is still a former NGO worker and employee of international organisations. He is not a churchgoer and has no particular ties to the Church. The same applies to much of his team.
4. There is no friendship, brotherhood or willingness to support one another in the “Georgian Dream” party. Apparently, none of them possesses that quintessential Georgian sense of honour. Out of fear of Bidzina, and now of Kobakhidze as well, they will betray one another, throw each other under the bus and abandon one another in times of trouble.
5. Ivanishvili is deliberately deepening divisions within his own team and turning its members against one another. His goal is to prevent them from uniting against him and to force them to constantly undermine and confront each other.
6. Today, Kobakhidze is clearly Ivanishvili’s favourite. However, he appears to have been carried away by this status. He often talks about his personal achievements, as though he had the power to act even without Ivanishvili. He may not have many genuine supporters within “Georgian Dream”, but today he exercises almost complete control over state institutions. “Georgian Dream” members appear to fear Kobakhidze greatly — perhaps even more than Bidzina. They know that Kobakhidze has direct access to Bidzina and can tell him something about a fellow party member that could ultimately destroy them. Even Garibashvili did not have this kind of influence. Kobakhidze has placed his people almost everywhere, while parliament is under his complete control. He has gradually concentrated enormous power in his hands. If this continues, even Ivanishvili may find it difficult to dismantle the system.

The experience of authoritarian regimes around the world also shows that dictators manage their inner circles according to the principle of “divide and rule”. They periodically replace their favourites and involve everyone in corruption schemes and other crimes, so that they can later use their weaknesses and complicity against them. At the same time, they pit influential groups against one another and keep everyone in a constant state of fear through selective punishment.

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Thus, no individual or group can accumulate enough power to pose a real threat to the leader. However, such a system also carries a significant risk: a favourite who has concentrated all the levers of power in their hands may eventually begin building an independent political force. That is why dictators often get rid of their most loyal and influential allies.

At the same time, members of an authoritarian ruler’s inner circle often initiate changes of power. In other words, autocrats and dictators have good reason to fear their own inner circles. Today, if Kobakhidze wanted to, he could even remove Bidzina, and no one in “Georgian Dream” would dare oppose him. Therefore, removing Kobakhidze would eventually become a perfectly logical step — unless he managed to remove Ivanishvili first.

Opinion on Georgian Prime Minister Kobakhidze