Russia recognizes LPR and DPR - what's next? Opinion from Abkhazia
Abkhazia’s reaction to Russia’s recognition of LNR and DNR
How will Abkhazia be affected by Russia’s recognition of the Lugansk and Donetsk republics in eastern Ukraine? The editor of JAMnews in Abkhazia, Inal Khashig, comments.
According to the scenario of the development of relations between the collective West and Russia, recognition by the Kremlin of the independence of the two Donbss republics was actually an inevitable action.
But the situation is slightly different from the events of August 2008, when Russia’s recognition of the independence of Abkhazia and South Ossetia, although was received with hostility by the other big players, nevertheless, undoubtedly sharply cooled tensions in the two conflict zones.
None of the parties involved were thinking about either the large-scale war or small skirmishes.
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The Georgian-Abkhazian and Georgian-South Ossetian conflicts are almost insoluble, but stable peace, (and this, perhaps, is recognized by everyone) is present in these regions. The same can not be said about the prospects of the current decision in relation to the two Donbas republics.
Moscow not only recognized the independence of the LPR and DPR within the borders in which the Donetsk and Luhansk regions originally existed but also officially took them under its protection.
However, some of these territories are controlled by Kiyv, and this increases the risk of the conflict escalating to direct military clashes between Ukraine and Russia.
Given that in Ukraine, which is so actively supported by the West, everything is in order with revanchist sentiments, further prospects for the development of events are becoming very pessimistic.
Abkhazia has a predetermined choice in this situation. Russia is not just its only ally, but also a guarantor of the security of the republic, and there is nothing surprising in the fact that an hour after the act of recognizing the LPR and DPR signed by Vladimir Putin, President Aslan Bzhania took did so as well.
“Georgia condemns recognition of Donetsk and Luhansk” – Tbilisi slams Moscow's moves in Ukraine
Tbilisi’s reaction to the recognition of Donetsk and Lugansk is strongly negative. President Zurabishvili noted that this is a repetition of the 2008 events, which led to the occupation of 20% of Georgia’s territory
In economic terms, the republic is practically under no threat. Since the recognition of its independence, Abkhazia has been under tough EU sanctions imposed at the suggestion of Georgia, and Turkey, the second trading partner after Russia, is too independent to join someone else’s game against its own interests.
If, God forbid, there is a war, Abkhazia will certainly declare its military support for its main ally, but given the modest capabilities of the republic’s armed forces, this participation will be more nominal than real.
The only thing that can change for Abkhazia with the recognition of the DPR and LPR is entry into the modernized project of the Union State.
Now, when the confrontation between the collective West, on the one hand, and Russia, together with Belarus, which has recently closely joined it, on the other, has reached a critical level, the Union, which, in addition to Russia and Belarus, will ironically include Abkhazia, South Ossetia, the LPR and the DPR, and possibly several others states, may actually become a reality.
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