"US and Russia will not interfere with Azerbaijan" - comment from Baku
RAND report on Ukraine
The American analytical center RAND Corporation has published a report on US policy regarding the war in Ukraine, which notes that while Russia is drawn further into its war effort, it is unlikely to engage in more conflict with other neighboring countries. The confrontation between the Russian Federation and the West has put an end to Europe’s energy dependence on Moscow, and increased the role of Azerbaijan for EU countries, which in turn plays into the hands of the United States.
These circumstances allow us to say that the United States and Russia will not interfere with Azerbaijan in establishing its sovereignty over the entirety of Karabakh, Elkhan Shahinoglu, head of the Atlas analytical center, says.
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Positive and negative aspects of the war in Ukraine
The weakening of Russia in its war on Ukraine is good for the United States, according to the RAND Corporation paper entitled “Avoiding a Long War: U.S. Policy and the Trajectory of the Russia-Ukraine Conflict“.
The paper also mentions Europe’s lessening dependence on Russia for energy as another positive.
Despite this, it also lists the negative aspects of the Russian-Ukrainian conflict:
- the risk of a collision between Russia and NATO and the use of nuclear weapons has increased;
- America is committing more and more to the war effort;
- continuation of the war is the main obstacle to the stabilization of energy prices;
- the war in Ukraine diverts attention from other areas of US foreign policy;
- Russia’s dependence on China is growing, which is contrary to US interests; Moscow is trying to sell Beijing all the gas that Europe is not buying.
- Russia and China have increased the number of joint military exercises and are trying to win over other states against American hegemony
How will the war end?
RAND Corporation in its report analyzed several options for ending the war in Ukraine.
First option. One of the warring parties wins. This means that the world community is obliged to follow the course of the war until one of the parties wins the final victory.
Second option. A truce is declared and negotiations begin. According to American experts such an outcome is unlikely, because Russia wants to formalize the occupation while Ukraine is trying to restore its territorial integrity. A truce would not currently mean peace, rather the transition to a different stage of the conflict.
How will the US do it?
The RAND paper lists four possible steps to resolve the Russian-Ukrainian conflict:
- Washington makes it clear to Kyiv that the United States cannot provide Ukraine with financial and military assistance indefinitely. Kyiv must realize that in parallel with the hostilities it is necessary to negotiate with Moscow;
- after the end of the war, the United States gives security guarantees to Ukraine, i.e. limited financial assistance to Kyiv, and further military aid if Ukraine is attacked again;
- the United States gives guarantees to the Kremlin about Ukrainian neutrality;
- conditions are created for easing sanctions against Russia.
Expert comment
Experts “close to the Kremlin” agree with the outline of the RAND paper: “They believe that the Americans are thus offering to stop the war on terms that do not encroach on the Kremlin’s red lines,” Elkhan Shahinoglu believes.
He notes that in some circles in Washington, “Ukraine fatigue” is observable:
“Just as the paper was published, US Under-Secretary of State for Political Affairs Victoria Nuland announced the possibility of easing sanctions against Russia after Russian troops leave Ukraine.
But the whole problem is that the Kremlin does not intend to withdraw its troops from Ukraine; it is rather trying to gain a foothold in those territories that it annexed through fictitious referenda. In addition to this, Russia is preparing for a large-scale attack on other regions of Ukraine.”
Shahinoglu says that the report’s contention that Russia’s free movement is limited by the war gives Azerbaijan a freer hand:
“It is clear that Russia will not increase tensions with Azerbaijan. Taking advantage of this, Azerbaijan can speed up the process of expanding its sovereignty over the entiretyof Karabakh.
Another point from the American report also meets the interests of Azerbaijan. Freeing Europe from Russian energy is directly related to their supplies from Azerbaijan. In other words, the US and Europe are also not interested in preventing Azerbaijan from restoring order on its territory. Europe needs Azerbaijani gas, the US is not against it at all.”
