"Public opinion is being prepared for Azerbaijan's accession to the EAEU" - expert opinion
Experts on Azerbaijan’s political strategy
The Prime Minister of Azerbaijan took part in a meeting of the Intergovernmental Council of the EAEU as a guest. The following day, the assistant to the President of Azerbaijan reacted harshly to the refusal of the US and French ambassadors to travel to Shusha. According to experts, public opinion in Azerbaijan is being prepared for the country’s accession to the Eurasian Economic Union, an organization under the auspices of Russia.
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On August 26, a meeting of the Intergovernmental Council of the Eurasian Economic Union was held in the city of Cholpon-Ata in Kyrgyzstan. Prime Minister of Azerbaijan Ali Asadov took part in the meeting as a guest.
The next day in Shusha (Armenian: Shushi), Azerbaijani presidential aide Hikmet Hajiyev criticized the US and French ambassadors for refusing to attend an international conference in the city, which had returned to Azerbaijani control as a result of the second Karabakh war.
According to experts, the timing of these events was no accident.
“Public opinion is being prepared”
According to activist Bakhtiyar Hajiyev, the refusal to travel to Shusha cannot be regarded as a manifestation of the ambassadors’ disrespect for the territorial integrity of Azerbaijan:
“At present, the posts of US and French ambassadors in Azerbaijan are inactive. The period of diplomatic missions has come to an end, the new ambassadors have not yet begun working.”
Hajiyev recalled the letter of the President of Azerbaijan to the President of the United States on the latter nation’s Independence Day:
“In that letter, the President of Azerbaijan openly said that the United States from the first days of our independence had provided great support to the sovereignty and territorial integrity of Azerbaijan.”
According to the activist, it is no coincidence that a rebuke of the United States and France and the participation of the Prime Minister of Azerbaijan at the EAEU meeting coincided:
“I think that Azerbaijan is going to make a certain turn in favor of Russia in its foreign policy, and public opinion is being prepared for this. An anti-Western opinion is being prepared in society, and then integration into the Russian Eurasian Economic Union will take place.”
“Perhaps the flag of Azerbaijan will be raised in Khankendi too”
Political observer Azer Qasimly, on the other hand, believes that the Azerbaijani authorities are in a certain sense preparing the country for the post-Putin period:
“A new foreign policy strategy for this period is being developed. This strategy depends on the notion of Turanism [i.e. pan-Turkish ideology – ed.], Great Azerbaijan. Rapprochement with Erdogan, The President of Kazakhstan’s visit to Baku, Ilham Aliyev’s visit to Uzbekistan, the promotion of the topic of Turanism in the pro-government media.
“But there is also a certain risk. If Erdogan fails to remain president next year [Turkey holds presidential elections in June 2023], all this preparation will be useless.”
According to Qasimly, criticism of the United States and France is explained both by this and by getting rid of the topic of integration with the West:
“On the other hand, Aliyev and Putin probably have certain agreements. In light of these agreements, it is possible that the raising of the national flag of Azerbaijan in Khankendi (Armenian: Stepanakert) and the presence of the President of Azerbaijan’s representatives in this city will come to pass. But we are not saying the Azerbaijani army will take Khankendi under control. In return for all this, the Russian peacekeeping contingent will be given the status of a military base in Azerbaijan, and perhaps Azerbaijan will become a member of the EAEU.”
“The growth of criticism of the West is not an accident”
Gubad Ibadoglu, the leader of the Azerbaijani opposition Party of Democracy and Prosperity and who lives in London, said the the country is being led down the wrong path.
“After the Azerbaijani government was represented at a meeting of the EAEU Intergovernmental Council, and the invitation for the Azerbaijani Armed Forces to participate in military exercises led by the Chief of the General Staff of the Russian Armed Forces on September 1-7 was accepted, there was an increase in criticism of the West.
“We must not forget that never before have so many people with close ties to the Armenian diaspora sat in the US Congress, and they have a great influence on the decisions of the US presidential administration. They are interested in the deterioration of relations between Washington and Baku, in Azerbaijan remaining close to Russia. Make no mistake.
“It is clear to everyone that there is no prospect of development next to Russia, therefore it is impossible to sacrifice the long-term interests of the state for the sake of the current interests of the authorities, this can cost us dearly.
“So one cannot remain indifferent to what is happening lately – one must tell the people the truth, however bitter,” Ibadoglu wrote on Facebook.
Experts on Azerbaijan’s political strategy
