"Baku and Moscow are not interested in an exodus of all Armenians from NK". Opinions from Yerevan
Opinions on the situation in NK after the war
Armenia is discussing the consequences of the military actions on the territory of Nagorno-Karabakh on September 19-20, which Azerbaijan calls an “anti-terrorist operation”. The unrecognized republic reports that at least 200 people were killed and 400 wounded. The casualties also include 10 civilians, five children. After a ceasefire was agreed upon, the situation did not fully stabilize. Shooting did not stop during the negotiations that took place in the morning between MK Armenians and Azerbaijanis in Yevlakh.
Baku continues to promote the “integration agenda”, and Armenian society insistently talks about the necessity of immediate evacuation of people from MK to save their lives. However, experts do not think that the Azerbaijani authorities and Russian peacekeeping troops will allow all Armenians to leave the territory. In case of their departure it will be difficult to justify the presence of Russian peacekeeping forces here. And Baku, according to Armenian experts, “will not be able to confirm its statements that it is not carrying out ethnic cleansing”.
“The people of Artsakh are left between three evils.”
According to political scientist Areg Kochinyan, after the recent hostilities, the status of Karabakh Armenians can be defined as “Azerbaijani captivity”. He says that Russian peacekeepers do not want them to leave, as they themselves will also have to leave – there will be no one else to protect. But Azerbaijan too, he believes, is unwilling to let all Armenians out:
“They are prisoners, they can be humiliated, self-assert themselves, take out their anger for the past 30 years and scrape various concessions from Armenia.”
According to Kochinyan, against this background, Karabakhis are also scared away by the internal political situation in Armenia, which has heated up these days. He believes that MK Armenians are caught between these “three evils, in a hopeless situation”.
The political scientist is convinced that the evacuation of people should be organized as soon as possible.
Baku to present “acceptable proposals for at least part of Armenians”
Political analyst Boris Navasardyan assumes that Baku will offer more or less acceptable conditions for at least some Armenians. But he is not sure that they will be practically guaranteed, given the mood in Azerbaijani society:
“They [the Azerbaijani authorities] are against creating special conditions for Armenians, because it will immediately provoke conversations about why the people who pursued a ‘separatist policy’ should enjoy some privileges today.”
According to the analyst, the Azerbaijani leadership cannot ignore these sentiments, but will try to limit criticism of its address from various international structures. He is sure that at the moment “Azerbaijan is not interested in the departure of the entire Armenian population from Artsakh.”
As for the Russian peacekeepers stationed here, he believes:
“If not the entire contingent, then at least part of the RCC will soon have to leave NK. It is not excluded that at the expense of these dwindling resources a military grouping will be formed, which will be deployed on the Armenian-Azerbaijani border. Armenia may again be offered to deploy border guards on the Armenian-Azerbaijani border – either under the flag of the Russian military bloc CSTO, or under the flag of Russia itself. And any disputable issue will be resolved by this military grouping in favor of Azerbaijan, not Armenia.”
“Evacuation is impossible without an international presence.”
According to Gegham Baghdasaryan, head of the Stepanakert Press Club, “the main task now is the organized and safe evacuation of people, saving their lives”. But here he sees a number of difficulties, among them Russia’s position:
“Russia wants a certain number of people to stay to justify its criminal presence. It is for this purpose that the Russians spread information in Artsakh that Armenia does not want to accept people from Artsakh. The Armenian authorities should clearly, unambiguously and publicly declare that they are ready to accept them.”
In addition, Baghdasaryan reports that there is no fuel or transportation to evacuate people.
“It is urgent to take measures. The authorities of Artsakh and Armenia should appeal to international structures and demand their participation in the evacuation of people. Today’s session of the UN Security Council is the most appropriate opportunity to talk about this,” he believes.
“This was an encroachment on the sovereignty and territorial integrity of Armenia”
Political scientist Gurgen Simonyan believes that the military actions in Karabakh were also directed “against Armenia’s course towards democracy”. He says that the unrecognized NKR is part of Armenia’s security system. In this regard, Simonyan suggests the Armenian authorities to
- “apply hybrid, informational and psychological instruments of warfare to stop ethnocide and patriocide in Artsakh,
- discuss methods and forms of using military force in order to stop possible large-scale aggression on the territory of Armenia”.
On his Facebook page, the analyst expressed the following opinion:
“It is a fact that all of this is being done in order to make extraterritorial demands to Armenia [referring to the so-called ‘Zangezur corridor’ demanded by Turkey and Azerbaijan] and to establish the power of [Russia’s] puppet overseers in Yerevan.”
He believes that the Armenian leadership needs to urgently take certain steps, including ratifying the Rome Statute and announcing its withdrawal from Russian alliances. He means the CSTO military bloc and the Eurasian Economic Union. He warns that if this is not done, “the next blow will be even more difficult to withstand”.
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Opinions on the situation in NK after the war
