Opinion from Baku: "Moscow is against bilateral negotiations between Azerbaijan and Armenia"
Moscow resists direct Baku-Yerevan negotiations
The Kremlin is resisting in every possible way the process of bilateral negotiations between Yerevan and Baku, which has already begun with the support of the West, said Azerbaijani political scientist Elkhan Shahinoglu. In his opinion, Russia is also behind the mass protests in Yerevan and other cities of Armenia. The political scientist also raised the issue of possible changes in the region in the event of the overthrow of Nikol Pashinyan.
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“Protests in Yerevan are orchestrated by Moscow”
According to the head of the Azerbaijani analytical center Atlas, Elkhan Shahinoglu, the protests that have recently erupted in Yerevan and other cities of Armenia are orchestrated by Moscow:
“After the meeting between the President of Azerbaijan and the Prime Minister of Armenia in Brussels, Armenian Foreign Minister and Nikol Pashinyan himself made visits to Moscow. During these negotiations, it became clear that Russia was dissatisfied with the meeting in Brussels and its results.
After that, protests erupted in Armenia, and their main cause was Pashinyan’s words during his speech in parliament. The Prime Minister said that Armenia should lower the level of expectations on the Karabakh issue, in fact, he was hinting that, under the agreements, Nagorno-Karabakh would remain part of Azerbaijan.
And the sole purpose of the current protests is to overthrow Pashinyan. But there are not so many people on the streets and most silently follow what is happening. The Armenian people at the moment choose between “bad” and “worst”, and choose “bad” – meaning Pashinyan.
Interestingly, the radical opposition in Armenia is using the same method that Pashinyan used to come to power in 2018. At that time, the current prime minister called everyone to take to the streets, travelled around the cities of the country and gathered supporters”.
“Moscow is against bilateral negotiations”
The political scientist notes that the confrontation between the West and the Kremlin is clearly felt in our region.
“In Ukraine, the confrontation between the West and Russia has taken an open form, and it has already moved to the Caucasus.
Amid the events in Armenia, the Minister of Foreign Affairs of this country is holding meetings in Washington. In other words, Pashinyan is waiting for support from Washington after pressure from Moscow. Yes, press reports say that Ararat Mirzoyan complained to Anthony Blinken about the actions of Azerbaijan, but I am sure that behind closed doors, the actions of the Kremlin and the pressure exerted on Armenia are also discussed.
The head of the State Department made an interesting statement expressing support for direct talks between Armenia and Azerbaijan. In fact, this is a warning to Moscow not to interfere with the bilateral dialogue.
But the Kremlin is frankly against such a scenario. It insists on its mediation. But is mediation necessary in negotiations between Baku and Yerevan? The foreign ministers of the two countries have already spoken directly by telephone twice. Literally yesterday, a meeting was held in Brussels between Assistant to the President of Azerbaijan Hikmet Hajiyev and Secretary of the Armenian Security Council Armen Grigoryan. Bilateral contacts are already taking place, the US and Europe support them.
If Nikol Pashinyan wants Washington’s support, he must resist pressure from Moscow, but if this resistance does not lead to anything good, then the current government in Armenia will start to fever”, says Shahinoglu.
“If the opposition succeeds in overthrowing Pashinyan…”
The head of the Atlas analytical center finds it difficult to predict the course of events that may occur in the event of the change of power in Armenia:
“Of course, the new authorities in Armenia can revise all the documents signed by the Pashinyan government, but is all this in favor of Armenia?
If Armenia declares the invalidity of the signatures under the statements of November 10, 2020, and subsequent documents signed in Moscow and Sochi, Azerbaijan will have a chance to restore its sovereignty over the rest of Karabakh.
Also, Azerbaijan can unilaterally resolve the issue of restoring land communication between the main part of the country and Nakhichevan.
As Ilham Aliyev stated the other day, if Armenia does not recognize the territorial integrity of Azerbaijan, then Azerbaijan will not recognize the territorial integrity of Armenia”.
