'Don't look for black cat in dark room': Why Pashinyan didn't go to Russia
Pashinyan missed informal CIS summit
Armenian Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan did not attend the informal CIS summit of leaders, which took place in Russia the day before. He announced that he could not fly to St. Petersburg due to testing positive for COVID-19.
Speculations immediately appeared on social media about the possible reasons for his absence. In response, members of the ruling team stated that there was no need to invent conspiracy theories, as they were baseless. However, experts hold a different view. In particular, political scientist Lilit Dallakyan believes that Pashinyan’s refusal to attend the trip might be linked to his reluctance to engage in negotiations with Ilham Aliyev on Russian soil:
“Perhaps Pashinyan received signals that Putin would try to organize a meeting with Aliyev there. And he didn’t want to discuss issues like the delimitation of the Armenian-Azerbaijani border at this venue. And we see that Russia has once again become active in this direction.”
Today, Russia held a meeting of the Supreme Eurasian Economic Council. Armenia has been presiding over the bodies of the Eurasian Economic Union, which operates under Russia’s leadership, since January 2024. Pashinyan stated the day before that he would make a decision on whether or not to participate in the meeting “by the end of the day.”
Russian President’s spokesperson Dmitry Peskov stated that remote participation by the Armenian Prime Minister in the meeting was perfectly acceptable: “Armenia remains a very important participant in both the EAEU and the CIS. Both Armenia and the Armenian people benefit from this participation. So, it’s a two-way street. Both the CIS and our Armenian friends are interested in this.”
By the time the article was published, Pashinyan had already delivered a speech at the economic council meeting via video link.
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Pashinyan skips CIS leaders’ summit for the first time
Since taking office, Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan has participated in five informal summits of CIS leaders. The summit was not held in 2020 due to the COVID-19 pandemic. This year, for the first time, the Armenian prime minister did not take part in the summit.
JAMnews reviewed official statements about all previous meetings, and it turned out that the prime minister’s office provided very limited information. All the reports mentioned that the leaders discussed “issues related to the development of cooperation in the CIS space.”
On December 25, Azerbaijani President Ilham Aliyev also did not attend the summit. Due to the crash of an AZAL airline plane traveling from Baku to Grozny, Aliyev was forced to return to Azerbaijan.
Leaders of Armenia and Azerbaijan met 2 months ago
The last meeting between Pashinyan and Aliyev took place on October 24 in Kazan, within the framework of the 16th BRICS summit.
BRICS is an acronym for the first letters of the names of the participating countries: Brazil, Russia, India, China, South Africa.
It was reported that the leaders of Armenia and Azerbaijan discussed issues related to the bilateral agenda, the signing of a peace treaty, as well as the delimitation and demarcation of borders.
“Foreign ministers have been instructed to continue bilateral negotiations on the Agreement on the Establishment of Peace and Interstate Relations with the aim of finalizing and signing it as soon as possible,” the official press release stated.
According to footage from Kazan, this meeting took place in an unprecedentedly friendly atmosphere. However, Armenian analysts, despite everything, declared: “Without pressure, Baku will not agree to peace.”
Recently, their forecast has been confirmed by the rhetoric in official statements from Baku.
In his latest interview with Russian RIA Novosti outlet, Ilham Aliyev stated that Armenians should not forget the results of the second Karabakh war and the “counter-terrorism operation” in September 2023, which resulted in all Armenians leaving their homeland.
“They must understand that, despite the maximum support from Macron’s regime and the US State Department, here, on the ground, if they contemplate another provocation against us, no one will help them,” Aliyev declared.
In his “counter-interview,” Pashinyan stated that Armenia has no intentions, goals, or plans to attack Azerbaijan:
“If Azerbaijan has no intention of attacking Armenia, the likelihood of escalation in the region is zero.”
“When he has something to say, he speaks about it directly and frankly”
The leader of the ruling parliamentary faction “Civil Contract,” Ayk Kondjoryan, says that there are circles promoting their conspiracy theories regarding all processes. He assures that they are completely unfounded:
“I rely on the official statements of the Prime Minister. I think there’s no need to look for a black cat in a dark room. When the Prime Minister makes a decision, he communicates it clearly and directly with both our society and international partners. When he has something to say, he speaks about it openly and frankly. There is no need to hide anything or avoid anything.”
Political scientist Lilit Dallakyan
Political scientist Lilit Dallakyan suggests that Nikol Pashinyan may have tried to avoid negotiations with Ilham Aliyev:
“In recent interviews, the President of Azerbaijan has been acting unconstructively. It would have been more appropriate to speak directly about this, rather than referring to illness. In any case, it was important not to meet with Aliyev at the CIS platform. As a principle — you refuse negotiations on Western platforms, we refuse negotiations at the CIS platform.
And the Armenian Prime Minister has reasons to avoid negotiations in the Russian format. Russia, in sync with Azerbaijan, constantly accuses Armenia, claiming that Western partners are inciting and arming it. This indicates a biased attitude towards Armenia at this platform.”
Lilit Dallakyan does not rule out that Moscow and Baku are trying to return Yerevan to the trilateral format, to implement the provisions of the November 9, 2020 statement. This document, which ended the war in Karabakh, has been cited by Armenian authorities, who have repeatedly stated that the other two parties have not fulfilled their obligations under this document.
Commenting on the current situation, the political scientist emphasizes that it is important not to forget — establishing peace in the South Caucasus is not in Russia’s interests:
“If you have been violating the military balance for years, arming Azerbaijan, knowing it is preparing for an attack, then your goal is not to establish peace here.”
In her opinion, Baku is not allowing peaceful relations with Armenia to be established:
“And Azerbaijan itself is not particularly eager for this either. I am sure that even if the two provisions of the peace treaty, on which the parties have not yet reached a compromise, are agreed upon, Azerbaijan will put forward new demands. Baku is driving the negotiation process into a deadlock, misleading the international community by claiming that Armenia’s constitution, EU observers monitoring the border with Azerbaijan, and the weapons Armenia is purchasing for its defense are allegedly preventing the signing of a peace agreement.”
