Azerbaijan and Georgia seek alliance

Baku seeks to transform relations with Tbilisi from a strategic partnership to an alliance between Azerbaijan–Georgia–Turkey, according to Azerbaijani political observer Agshin Kerimov in commenting on Ilham Aliyev’s trip to Tbilisi. The expert added that Ankara and Baku are interested in creating a “security umbrella” over Georgia in the face of threats and pressure from Russia.

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On October 24, Azerbaijani President Ilham Aliyev made a one-day working visit to Tbilisi, where he met with Georgian Prime Minister Irakli Garibashvili. Political commentator Agshin Kerimov commented to JAMnews on the possible reasons for the trip.

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Five possible reasons

According to Kerimov, in order to clarify the reasons for the meeting between Azerbaijani President Ilham Aliyev and Georgian Prime Minister Irakli Garibashvili, attention should be given to several areas.

Kerimov identifies five issues that would critical in discussion between the parties.

“In the first place I would put focus on Georgia suffering from the occupation of its territories, of the threats hanging over the post-Soviet space as a result of the Russian occupation war in Ukraine. In other words, the ongoing conflicts in Georgia put the country in a difficult position in the face of manipulation and pressure from Russia.

The second factor may be the Armenian issue being raised in Georgia, which is not the most desirable scenario for Azerbaijan.

Recently, official Baku has been seriously concerned about pro-Iranian forces in the regions of Georgia, where many Azerbaijanis live.

Fourth, the time has come to change relations between Azerbaijan and Georgia from strategic partnership to alliance.

Lastly, Tbilisi intends to become a mediator in the process of resolving relations between Baku and Yerevan, but this is not a personal initiative of Georgia, rather part of “instructions” from the West,” Kerimov explained.

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A positive example of Azerbaijan for Georgia

Georgia needs a balanced act in its own system of relations with Russia and Western countries, Kerimov believes. Tbilisi may well be interested in the positive example of Azerbaijan, which is successfully pursuing a flexible foreign policy line, he added.

“The interests of Russia and the West in terms of leverage on Georgia often overlap, and in this regard Azerbaijan and Turkey are making efforts to normalize relations between the Kremlin and Tbilisi,” Kerimov emphasizes and gives reasons for “the efforts of Ankara and Baku to create a security umbrella over Georgia”:

• Georgia is an important transit country between Turkey and Azerbaijan, through which primary energy and railway arteries pass;
• Azerbaijanis living on the territory of Georgia suggests the priorities of creating a single program on the ethnic plane, both for Baku and Ankara.

From strategic partnership to alliance

Focusing on the issue of pro-Iran forces in the part of Georgia where ethnic Azerbaijanis live, the political observer noted that Baku is currently putting the protection of ethnic Azerbaijanis living in other countries at the center of its policy.

“In this regard, both Baku and Ankara are well aware that there is nothing good behind Tehran’s attempts to take advantage of the potential of Azerbaijanis in Georgia,” Kerimov said.

According to him, there are also challenges in bilateral relations between Azerbaijan and Georgia:

“The main goal is to develop the Baku-Tbilisi strategic partnership into a trilateral alliance of Azerbaijan-Georgia-Turkey. If Tbilisi announces its decision to connect to the Zangezur corridor, this may become a decisive factor for rapprochement.”

Tbilisi mediating role

In conclusion, Kerimov talked about Georgia’s mediation in the resolution of relations between Armenia and Azerbaijan:

“The West, and in particular the US, is strongly interested in assigning the role of moderator in the Azerbaijani-Armenian agenda. According to the rules of the Washington game, the States prefer not to openly demonstrate their interest in some issues, they manage their own production from behind the scenes.

The United States is satisfying its need to resolve the conflict between Baku and Yerevan through Georgia, at the same time neutralizing the efforts of the Kremlin,” the expert concluded.

Azerbaijan and Georgia seek alliance