"War will bring trouble to both peoples" – commentary from Baku
The hostilities in Nagorno-Karabakh have continued since the morning of September 27. Unlike the clashes in April 2016 and July 2020, this time mobilization was announced both in Armenia and in Azerbaijan, the sides are fighting along the entire front line.
Military expert Asaf Guliyev commented on the current situation and prospects for JAMnews.
According to Guliyev, like all conflicts, the Nagorno-Karabakh confrontation has passed through several stages. “On September 27, a new stage of the conflict began. This stage may be conventionally called “peace enforcement”. Why so? It is known that the Armenian-Azerbaijani conflict went through stages of rallies, car attacks with stones, war, etc. At its core, the current stage is also a war. But it has its own distinctive features,” the expert noted.
“The Armenian side did not attach important to the decisions of the international community, declared the territories recognized by all Azerbaijani as the second Armenian state. This is disrespectful for both international law and the existing world order. Based on the above, this stage of the conflict or, if I may, a long-term war is precisely enforcing peace,” says Guliyev. In his opinion, the resolutions of the UN Security Council on the withdrawal of the Armenian military forces from the territory of Azerbaijan must be fulfilled.
The expert notes that, apart from the clashes in April 2016, the battles in recent years did not lead to changes in positions: “One could say that the parties were checking each other. However, in 2016 the first bell rang. At that time, the “Karabakh clan” that was in power in Armenia lost power, unable to withstand the pressure. The Armenian people realized that Sargsyan’s regime could not resist Azerbaijan’s revenge. Pashinyan came to power.”
“When he just took the reins into his own hands, there was hope that Pashinyan would take steps to rid his people of this evil. But we witnessed that the pressure of the previous Armenian elite did not allow him to do this, and Pashinyan took a destructive position. Thus, Azerbaijan has no choice left,” Guliyev added.
According to our interlocutor, he himself did not expect such a development of events: “Because the war will bring trouble to both peoples. Well you see, even though Pashinyan understands the truth, his thirst for power is stronger and day after day there are more and more manifestations of destructivism on his part. However, as soon as the fighting began, the statements from Yerevan softened. “
To our question about how long the outbreak of war in Nagorno-Karabakh will last, Asaf Guliyev replied: “It directly depends on the Armenian side. If they announce today that they are ready to fulfill the conditions of the UN Security Council resolutions, there will be no need for hostilities. Otherwise, if the resistance continues, the war will last. How long the resistance will last also depends entirely on the Armenian side.
From the psychological point of view, Azerbaijan is ready for this war. Even if the duration of the hostilities creates moral and psychological discomfort in society, it will be incomparably lower than the discomfort that the Armenian society will have to endure.
Immediate implementation of the UN Security Council resolutions would be in Armenia’s favor. Because fighting is taking place not only in the occupied territories around Nagorno-Karabakh, but also in the Agderin and Khojavend regions, which were once part of the NKAO. It will be good if the Armenian side thinks about it.”