Are new military operations possible in Karabakh? Commentary from Baku
Possibility of new military operations in Karabakh
On September 3, the Azerbaijani Defense Ministry reported a shootout near the city of Shusha (Shushi) in Karabakh and losses incurred by the armed formations of the Armenian side deployed in the territories controlled by the Russian peacekeepers. The “Defense Army” of the unrecognized Nagorno-Karabakh Republic denied this report.
Are new military operations possible in Karabakh? Azerbaijani political scientist Shahin Jafarli comments.
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“Is it possible to conduct a military operation against illegal armed groups in Karabakh? My guess is yes, it is. It can be carried out by coming to an agreement with Russia as it will be impossible without the consent of the Russian side.
But if Russia agrees to this, would there even be a need for a military operation? If it wishes, Russia can send back the forces arriving from Armenia, disarm local (if any) armed groups and the issue will be resolved without a single shot within 2-3 days. The main question is – does Russia want this? Is Russia interested in putting an end to the Karabakh issue by removing one of the parties to the conflict?
I think it does not, at least not yet. The comic nature of this situation is that it (the removal of one of the parties) contradicts the very statement of November 10, 2020. According to the clauses of that document, there is a contact line in Karabakh and there are opposing sides. If there none of the parties are present there and the sovereignty of Azerbaijan extends to Khankendi [the Armenian side calls this city Stepanakert – JAMnews], then what will the peacekeepers do there and why, in this case, did Russia oblige us to sign the statement of November 10? We ourselves were close to solving the problem.
There is only one possible scenario: Russia will agree to the establishment of Baku’s power over Khankendi in exchange for a permanent Russian military base there to ensure the security of the Armenian population – as was the case back in the Soviet times”, Shahin Jafarli wrote on his Facebook page.