Armenia gains access to rail connections through Turkey: what to expect
Turkey opens rail route for Armenia
“The Akhalkalaki-Kars railway, like Azerbaijan’s railway, is now open for exports from Armenia and imports into Armenia,” Armenian Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan wrote on social media.
He stressed that the development is highly important for the country’s economy and thanked Turkish and Georgian partners. Serdar Kılıç, Turkey’s special representative for the normalisation of Armenian-Turkish relations, shared the post on X.
“I hope this new step, which will contribute to four-way cooperation between Turkey, Armenia, Azerbaijan and Georgia, and significantly strengthen regional peace and stability, will benefit all these countries,” the diplomat wrote.
Armenian experts have so far avoided drawing firm conclusions. Economist Aghasi Tavadyan told JAMnews that, at this stage, the decision carries greater political significance.
He said analysts would only be able to assess the economic impact of opening the rail connection after conducting serious analysis.
In Tavadyan’s view, opening the border with Turkey will “partially solve” logistical problems linked to exports to European Union markets. However, Armenia still faces challenges in ensuring its products meet EU standards.
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Details: what the prime minister said
Nikol Pashinyan stressed that Armenia has gained the possibility of a rail connection with the European Union through the territories of Georgia and Turkey.
He recalled that Armenia had previously established rail links with Russia through Georgia and Azerbaijan, and later with China through Russia and Kazakhstan.
“In the future, the Armenia–Turkey and Armenia–Azerbaijan railways will open, followed by the Armenia–Iran route through Nakhchivan. We will witness these developments in the near future as a result of the implementation of the TRIPP project,” Pashinyan said.
TRIPP (Trump Route for International Peace and Prosperity) is a proposed transport corridor that would connect mainland Azerbaijan with its exclave, Nakhchivan, through Armenian territory.
Comment
Economist Aghasi Tavadyan says he has not yet analysed the economic implications of rail access through Georgia and Turkey for Armenia. However, he has already examined the potential economic effects and possible risks associated with opening the Armenia–Turkey border, both for imports and exports.
Tavadyan noted that Armenia already imports Turkish goods through Georgia. These include textile products, agricultural goods and construction materials. Despite transaction costs, he says these products remain “highly competitive” on the Armenian market because of their low prices.
“If the border between Armenia and Turkey opens, transaction costs will disappear. Turkish goods will become even cheaper in Armenia, and the range of products will expand. First of all, we will definitely see economic growth,” Tavadyan says.
At the same time, according to his calculations, most of that growth would likely concentrate in Yerevan.
In his view, opening the border would benefit residents of the capital and businesses such as restaurants, which could purchase goods more cheaply. However, he believes the move could negatively affect agriculture.
He points to Armenian tomatoes, which he says have displaced Turkish products in recent years. He also argues that Ukraine stopped importing certain Turkish agricultural products because it viewed them as a “risk” to its economy.
The expert also presented statistical data. In particular, he said that after 2018, economic growth in Armenia mainly occurred in information technology and banking, where activity increased by three times or more.
“Meanwhile, agriculture declined by around 15%. If Turkey decides to export cheap tomatoes, apricots or other products to Armenia, that will certainly increase economic growth, but it will hurt agriculture.”
Tavadyan argues that economic development matters not only for Yerevan but also for rural communities. He says this is an issue of “economic security”.
Speaking about exports to the EU through Turkey, Aghasi Tavadyan stressed that under Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan, Armenian exports to countries in the Russian-led Eurasian Economic Union increased almost fivefold.
“However, we have not seen similar growth in the direction of the European Union.”
Tavadyan suggests that opening the Armenia–Turkey border could partially resolve logistical challenges linked to EU markets.
At the same time, he emphasises that Armenia must take steps to ensure its products meet European standards.
“We need to think about expensive, lightweight and non-perishable goods. Traditional agricultural products such as tomatoes and apricots would become significantly more expensive to transport to the EU, spoil during delivery and create additional problems.”
Asked which products he considers more suitable for export to the EU in the initial stage, the economist listed:
- “Nuts — in attractive packaging and with Armenian branding
- Chocolate sweets filled with dried fruit
- Asparagus
- Honey”
Tavadyan also considers the promotion of Armenian brands important, along with participation in exhibitions across different EU countries. He says Armenia needs to understand which products will attract demand and establish new business connections.
Turkey opens rail route for Armenia
