What Belarus special representative's visit to Abkhazia could mean for its recognition by Minsk
Is President Lukashenka preparing to recognize Abkhazia?
The President of Belarus sent his personal representative Viktor Sheiman to visit Abkhazia. Abkhazian society and local experts are wondering whether this signals that Alexander Lukashenko is getting ready to recognise Abkhazia.
In early February, Lukashenka said that he was waiting for “signals” from Russia to recognize the independence of Abkhazia and South Ossetia, as well as Crimea as part of Russia. However, the Kremlin, represented by Dmitry Peskov, the press secretary of the President of Russia, said then that “there will be no signals.”
The status of Abkhazia and South Ossetia as an independent state was recognized by Russia after the Georgian-Russian war in August 2008. After that, four more countries declared recognition – Nicaragua, Nauru, Venezuela and Syria. Tbilisi and the rest of the world consider Abkhazia and South Ossetia to be a part of Georgia.
The administration of the President of Abkhazia reported that Aslan Bzhania met with Sheiman on June 25, only a few details are known about the negotiations. It is reported that “the parties discussed issues of mutual interest, topical aspects of Eurasian integration, prospects for investment and economic cooperation”.
It was also announced that “Viktor Sheiman brought Aslan Bzhania a memorable gift from Lukashenka”.
Whether there was a discussion at the meeting about the possibility of recognition of the independence of Abkhazia by Minsk, is not reported.
This visit is being actively commented on in Abkhazia. In expert circles, there is more agreement that Belarus is unlikely to agree to the recognition of Abkhazia in the near future. But Alexander Lukashenko wants to prepare the situation if the right moment arises.
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Expert commentary
“Lukashenko has developed insurmountable contradictions with the West. And the only major ally, Moscow, made it a condition to adhere to its course in foreign policy. But although Lukashenka has become more accommodating, he has retained independence in decision-making in the matter of recognition”, sums up the views of the popular telegram channel Abkhazia-Center.
“Meetings, trips – each time the status of their participants increases. But Lukashenka will agree to the full recognition of the independence of Abkhazia and South Ossetia if he is half a step away from deposition, and the question of his salvation will depend on Moscow.
In a different situation, seeing what an unpredictable mess has begun in Ukraine, he will try to evade and leave the bridges unburned and get off with cultural communication or partial recognition by means of a decision of the Parliament.
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