"There is nothing left of this document". Comment from Baku on trilateral statement
Three years of tripartite declaration
Exactly three years have passed since the signing of the trilateral statement by the leaders of Azerbaijan, Armenia and Russia that put an end to the second Karabakh war. According to Azerbaijani political observer Haji Namazov, nothing is left of this document. “The trilateral statement, the three-year anniversary of which is being celebrated today, was born against all logic, and disappeared the same way,” he said.
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“Against all logic.”
“Many people in Azerbaijan have recently been asking a question, and I have gotten this question several times from different people on social networks: why did the success of the Azerbaijani army’s counter-terrorist operation not cause the same euphoria in Azerbaijani society as the victory in the second Karabakh war?
The question is quite reasonable, because during the military operations on September 19-20, within only 23 hours Azerbaijan liberated almost 25% of the entire territory previously occupied by the Armenian army.
Many explain this by the short duration of the operation and the fact that the entire territory was liberated almost simultaneously did not have the same effect as the 44-day war. That is, the lightning operation did not give people the opportunity to realize the enormity of what had happened.
Russia’s factor and its authority in the region
“But I think it’s a little bit different here. Namely the factor of Russia and its authority in the region.
It is no secret that before 2020 Russia skillfully manipulated both sides of the conflict, and there were many cases when armed clashes on the line of contact between the armies were stopped by the Kremlin’s intervention.
In Azerbaijan in the fall of 2020, the public was not sure about the duration of the military campaign in Karabakh and other occupied territories. People rejoiced at every liberated village and town, and wondered when Moscow would push the button to stop the advance. These expectations faded the further it went. When Shusha had already been liberated, Khankendi was within easy reach.
We all remember that at that time there was almost no one left in the capital of the former NKAO. The city was almost empty, as Araik Harutyunyan himself stated. A few dozen separatists remained in Khankendi. And when the whole Azerbaijan was waiting for the logical end of the war, namely the liberation of Khankendi, a trilateral statement appeared, which put an end to this military campaign.
It was very unexpected for society.”
“The statement is obsolete.”
“After three years, we can safely state that the trilateral declaration of November 10, 2020 has soon outlived its usefulness thanks to the skillful diplomatic and military steps of official Baku.
Almost all points of this document have now lost their relevance. We can see how Russian peacekeepers one by one are closing their posts, their military equipment is being taken back to Russia by train through the territory of Azerbaijan under the pretext of rotation and repair.
This is also an important point, by the way. After all, RMK entered Karabakh from the Armenian side. But it had to leave from the opposite side.
There is no longer a line of contact in Karabakh, nor the Lachin corridor, which freely links Khankendi with Armenia. In other words, there is no object of the statement left.”
“Iran took the project for itself, and Armenia was left with nothing”
“Of course, such a sudden change in the situation was not in Moscow’s plans. And now, like a drowning man grasping at straws, it is trying to grasp the point of opening communications in the region. Namely, it demands fulfillment of the condition according to which the Russian FSB should control the road connecting the western regions of Azerbaijan with the Nakhchivan Autonomous Republic.
Leaving aside the illogic of such a demand, when there is no trace left of the other points of the trilateral statement, I will draw attention to one more circumstance. As such, there is no road connecting the west of Azerbaijan with Nakhchivan. Such a road does not exist. Armenia has not even started to build it during these three years, although Yerevan likes to make statements about its desire to open roads and earn money on logistics.
Azerbaijan has already stopped insisting on the so-called Zangezur corridor. Baku has decided to punish Yerevan for its intransigence and leave it out of the picture — more precisely, out of all regional projects. Currently, work is underway to build a road through Iran.
I would like to draw your attention to another important detail. Iran has been an opponent of the construction of the Zangezur corridor from day one. Tehran opposed this project under various pretexts, and Yerevan liked it. And what did we get in the end? Iran took the project for itself, and Armenia was left with nothing. Politics is a pretty tough thing.
As for the remnants of RMB in Karabakh, I think they will leave the region in the best case scenario in November 2025, when the trilateral statement expires. And maybe even earlier. Time will tell.”