Armenia-Azerbaijan peace agreement: Opinion from Yerevan
Signing of the peace treaty
The Armenian Foreign Ministry accuses Azerbaijan of trying to “delay the peace process and drive it to a deadlock” by staging provocations on the border and rejecting Western mediators’ proposals to continue negotiations. Yerevan has handed Baku its sixth peace treaty proposal. Azerbaijan has yet to respond. Instead, it has offered to hold bilateral talks — without the participation of mediators. Both sides declare their readiness to sign a peace treaty, but the process is not moving forward.
Armenia’s expert community believes that Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan is indeed ready to sign a peace agreement, but the process is being delayed by Azerbaijan because of its agreements with Russia.
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Hovsep Khurshudyan, Political Analyst
The project “Karabakh in the morning – Azerbaijan’s membership in the evening” has failed
“Azerbaijan fulfills its obligations to Russia. Signing a peace treaty not on Russian platforms contradicts the commitments Aliyev made after the Karabakh war in 2020. Turkey then helped Azerbaijan successfully wage war, while Russia did everything to prevent Armenia from resisting effectively, sabotaging many processes in the army through its agency and through its influence.
At the same time, Moscow and Baku agreed that Azerbaijan gets Artsakh and Russia gets Azerbaijan as a member of the CSTO military bloc and the EAEU economic union.
In parallel, Moscow planned to change the power in Armenia following its defeat in the 2020 war, appoint its protégé, and annex Armenia to Russia as a province or absolute vassal.
But this project failed. Alexander Dugin and Vladimir Zhirinovsky repeatedly reminded Ilham Aliyev of his duty to Moscow. That they had done their job – betrayed their ally and sold it to Azerbaijan, now it is Baku’s turn, and Baku must pay.
Alexander Dugin – Russian public figure who promotes the idea of creating a Eurasian superpower by integrating the Russian Federation with former Soviet republics into a new union.
Vladimir Zhirinovsky – Chairman of the Liberal Democratic Party of Russia until his death in 2022.
But Aliyev refused, saying that he had not yet received everything promised, referring to the so-called ‘Zangezur corridor’ [a road through southern Armenia to Nakhichevan not controlled by the Armenian side].”
Abandonment of the western site
“Because of this, Russia started to pressure Armenia to get this corridor. Since it failed to get what it wanted, it no longer hopes that Azerbaijan will join the CSTO or the EAEU. Now Moscow is demanding that it stay in Nagorno-Karabakh, where the mandate of the peacekeeping force expires in a year.
A peace treaty signed on Western platforms under Western guarantees and mediation means a solution to Armenian-Azerbaijani, as well as Armenian-Turkish contradictions. Then no one, including Armenia, will need Russia in this region.
I am convinced that Vladimir Putin and Recep Erdogan during their meeting on September 4 in Sochi, along with the aggression against Artsakh and ethnic cleansing of Armenians, reached additional agreements to ensure that the peace treaty is at least not concluded on Western platforms.”
Rights and Security of Karabakh Armenians in the Western Agenda
“Look at the discussions that were organized in September in the U.S. Senate, look at what James O’Brien, Assistant Secretary of State of the Bureau of European and Eurasian Affairs of the U.S. State Department, said on the Artsakh issue.
James O’Brien talked about replacing Russian peacekeepers in Nagorno-Karabakh: “There are currently Russian troops there, this is their first term, according to the 2020 ceasefire statement. If there is an alternative for these countries [Armenia and Azerbaijan], the presence of Russian peacekeepers will no longer be needed. They have failed their task as peacekeepers. We need the Russian peacekeepers to leave after their five-year term expires [in 2025]. The United States is ready to offer an alternative to Russian peacekeepers. The United States and the European Union want Armenia’s rapprochement with its transatlantic allies and are working out a strategy to ensure it.
In addition, Azerbaijan was clearly told at the Senate hearings that there are still a few weeks left to sign the Armenia-Azerbaijan peace treaty. On the issue of Nagorno-Karabakh, it was said that the US is investigating the latest aggression against Armenians to understand what happened there, whether it was ethnic cleansing or not. They are cooperating with Human Rights Watch as part of that investigation. This is necessary so that their statements do not appear unsubstantiated.
The rights and security of the NK Armenians are part of the peace treaty itself, and this was made clear by the statement of the leaders of Armenia, France, Germany and the EU President at the end of the quadrilateral meeting in Granada.
The statement clearly spoke of the safe return of Karabakh Armenians to their homeland, ensuring their rights and security, something Azerbaijan wants to avoid.
But if Baku continues its unconstructive policy, I am sure that the Kosovization of Artsakh will be inevitable.”
The role of intermediaries
“To advance these goals, actors have different roles. Armenia has its own role. It does not raise the issue of Artsakh. Mediators have their own. And that is why we need Western mediators, while Azerbaijan does not. Baku prefers to solve issues on the Russian platform, where the Nagorno-Karabakh issue is not mentioned, or prefers a bilateral format without mediators.
But I exclude the possibility of signing a peace treaty on the Russian platform.
Armenia has a consistent policy on the issue of the Russian military bloc of the CSTO, refusing to participate in the activities of the organization. It should pursue the same policy in other formats.
It would be a mistake on the part of Nikol Pashinyan to go to any event and meet with Ilham Aliyev in the Russian backyard. This will be a very bad message to the West.“
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Signing of the peace treaty
