"Armenia is openly threatened with the Ukrainian scenario". Opinion from Yerevan
Russia threatens Armenia
“We see how Armenia is being turned into Ukraine 3.0, if we consider Moldova as Ukraine 2.0, and Pashinyan is following Vladimir Zelensky’s path withhuge steps,” a “high-ranking source in Moscow” who wished to remain anonymous told the TASS news agency.
He criticized the Armenian Prime Minister’s speech in the European Parliament and called it “absolutely irresponsible and provocative,” especially with regard to Russia and Armenian-Russian relations.
Political analyst Robert Ghevondian told JAMnews that this is how official Moscow expresses its dissatisfaction with Pashinyan’s speech. The expert says that this is not the first time Russia has threatened Armenia in this way. He believes that Russia will be satisfied with mere statements for the time being and will not resort to concrete actions. But until Armenia starts the process of withdrawal from the Russian military bloc CSTO. In his opinion, “the Armenian side does not seem to have such an intention.”
A day ago, the Armenian Prime Minister spoke in the European Parliament and criticized allies in the security sphere. In particular, he recalled the CSTO’s lack of response during the fighting on Armenia’s border in 2022, as well as the exodus of the entire Armenian population from NK “amid the inaction of the Russian peacekeeping contingent.”
“At a time when 100,000 Armenians fled from Nagorno-Karabakh to Armenia, our security allies not only did not help us, but also made public calls for a change of power in Armenia, for the overthrow of the democratic government. Another plot against the Armenian state failed as a result of the unity of the people,” he said.
Russia has long been threatening Armenia with the Ukrainian scenario, “mainly through the mouths of Russian media representatives and experts,” says political scientist Robert Ghevondyan. He says that in this case too, Russian diplomacy works according to a traditional scheme:
“At first, someone gives very sharp assessments based on the principle of anonymity. I am also waiting for a certain reaction from the official representative of the Russian Foreign Ministry. Then they will move to the level of experts, after which they will express their dissatisfaction a little more gently.”
According to the analyst, this is how Moscow wants to show that it has tools should Armenia continues to pursue an independent course:
“This is an open threat to Armenia. But this is not new, this threat has been hovering over Armenia for quite a long time. The situation has sharply escalated, for example on the eve of the ratification of the Rome Statute.”
A barrage of threats hits Armenia every time the country makes a sovereign decision, makes a statement or takes actions that are in its interests, Ghevondian says, and that the Armenian authorities should get used to it and develop mechanisms to neutralize challenges.
Armenia cannot cope with these challenges alone, he says, and Western partners should provide support — financial or military.
“Armenia should be able to conduct such diplomacy that would neutralize the challenges of one side with the support of the other side.”
The political analyst is convinced that until Yerevan takes decisive action, in particular the process of suspending its membership in the CSTO, Moscow will not resort to practical steps and will be satisfied with “attacks by experts, media representatives and statements.” But this will not always be the case, he warns:
“Eventually we will see these steps. First of all, there will be economic problems related to the Upper Lars crossing point, increased pressure through certain instruments of the Eurasian Economic Union, as well as Azerbaijan’s military provocations on the border. That is why Russia does not want Aliyev to go to Europe, where agreements can be reached that will exclude such provocations.”
Armenia should have started developing a strategy to neutralize the actions expected from the Russian side “not today, but yesterday”, Ghevondian believes.
Russia threatens Armenia