In what scenario would the ruling party in Georgia lose the election? Opinion

How the opposition can win the elections in Georgia

Constitutionalist Vakhushti Menabde examines the conditions necessary for a change of power to occur in Georgia as a result of fair parliamentary elections on October 26, and for a new coalition government to be formed afterward.

Vakhushti Menabde:

Under what circumstances will “Georgian Dream” lose the elections?

There are several “ifs” that determine the possibility of forming a coalition government after the elections:

• If the current electoral strength of the ruling party “Georgian Dream” significantly does not exceed 850,000 votes;
• If the opposition develops a reasonable pre-election strategy;
• If the opposition manages to bring 200,000 more voters to the polling stations on election day compared to the average so far;
• If the opposition is strategically reorganized into several coalitions;
• If the number of votes cast for parties that do not make it into parliament does not exceed five percent;
• If the opposition MPs elected to parliament do not defect to “Georgian Dream” after the elections (this has happened many times).

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Now, let’s delve into the details

Many are confident that “Georgian Dream” will not be able to stay in power for a fourth term after the parliamentary elections. This confidence is good; the struggle demands it.

But to substantiate it, a strategy is needed that will be based on data analysis and observation.

Elections make the results of the struggle for democracy clear. Election results are expressed in numbers. So, let’s look at the numbers:

● Results of Georgian Dream. In three out of the last four elections, the party received between 46.7 percent and 48.7 percent of the vote. In the 2017 local self-government elections, it received 55.8 percent. However, this can be explained by the low turnout of opposition-minded voters, with turnout being only 45.7 percent.

Thus, in the last four elections, the ruling party has averaged 850,000 to 900,000 votes.

● How many people will vote?

Overall, 3.5 million citizens in Georgia have the right to vote. Among them, around one million live abroad, which means their votes are effectively lost; only one percent of the diaspora participate in voting.

Thus, realistically, about 2.5 million people should vote.

Some may not participate due to health reasons, others due to work obligations, and still others due to logistical challenges between their actual place of residence and registration.

It’s difficult to say exactly how many people will turn out for the elections in October. The last record was set in 2012, when over 2.2 million people voted in parliamentary elections. [At that time, the “National Movement,” founded by President Mikheil Saakashvili, lost to the “Georgian Dream” party, founded by oligarch Bidzina Ivanishvili — JAMnews].

That year, parties brought 400,000 more people to the polls than in 2016 and 245,000 more than in 2020.

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Based on analysis of previous elections, it can be said that in a heightened political situation, up to 1.85-1.95 million voters turn out in Georgia, and for elections of existential significance, around 2.2 million.

However, it’s important to consider that in 2012, the number of Georgians living abroad was one-third of the current figure. This factor will significantly influence the voter turnout in October.

Therefore, the opposition must ensure that approximately the same number of voters as in 2012 participate in the upcoming elections.

● “Georgian Dream” could lose even if it receives 40 percent of the vote

If we assume Georgian Dream still has 850,000 to 900,000 voters as in previous elections, and a maximum of 2.15 million people vote, the ruling team would garner up to 40 percent.

Some may think this is a very high figure. However, it’s worth recalling that in 2012, 867,000 people voted for the United National Movement (UNM). Yet, it became clear in subsequent elections that around half a million of those votes were not freely cast. Ultimately, the UNM lost them along with power.

● What was the secret to Georgian Dream’s success in 2012, amidst such high support for the United National Movement?

1. First and foremost, it was a strategy that can be described as “Divide the electorate into two parts” (I think this strategy will be counterproductive this year).

This minimized the votes “thrown into the air” – that is, those who supported candidates who later did not exceed the threshold and did not enter parliament. In those elections, the number of such votes was less than five percent.

This helped Georgian Dream achieve that the percentage of votes received in the proportional part of those elections almost precisely matched their share of seats in parliament.

Typically, this does not happen. For example, in 2016, the United National Movement received 27 percent in the proportional part but only obtained 20 percent of the mandates. Meanwhile, Georgian Dream received 57 percent of the mandates with 48 percent of the votes.

In other words, the current government in Georgia received up to nine percent of its mandates solely due to the peculiarities of the electoral system.

2. The second successful move that Georgian Dream managed to pull off was convincing previously disengaged voters to come out and vote.

At the time, the ruling UNM party wasn’t popular in society. However, the Georgian Dream success wasn’t solely attributed to this. Georgian Dream itself became a source of hope for people and conducted a well-planned electoral campaign.

As a result, they increased voter turnout in the 2012 elections by nine percent compared to May 2008, when parliamentary elections were also critically important for the country. Meanwhile, the decline of the United National Movement wasn’t as dramatic, amounting to only 17 percent.

Despite the prevailing belief that Georgian Dream won the 2012 elections, it’s worth considering another perspective — that it was more of a loss for the UNM.

• Georgian Dream managed to form such a strong opposition to the ruling UNM at the time that it attracted even the indifferent voters.
• Most importantly, they effectively minimized the spectrum of opinions and drew in everyone who wasn’t aligned with the UNM.

This same approach is what the opposition should adopt today.

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● Opposition political forces currently face two tasks:

1. Reorganize in such a way that as few voter voices as possible are left behind the electoral threshold.

2. Mobilize as many voters as possible on election day who have not previously participated in elections.

How can this be achieved?

For the first task, it’s necessary to form three or four coalitions, while for the second task, a well-planned electoral campaign is essential.

If Georgian Dream secures 40 percent of 2.15 million votes, and if only five percent of votes are lost (remaining below the threshold), then the opposition could potentially gain 55 percent (1.2 million votes). This scenario would make the plan proposed by the president effective.

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● How the opposition can attract maximum voter support:

In the parliamentary elections of 2020 and the local elections of 2021, the opposition collectively garnered support from up to one million people. However, approximately 100,000 of them, even in the most optimistic assessment, voted for political forces that ultimately did not enter parliament or local governing bodies.

Based on this level of support, the opposition now needs an additional 200,000 votes to secure victory. As mentioned earlier, these votes can be attracted through a well-planned pre-election campaign.