Op-Ed: Catastrophic rise in coronavirus cases in Armenia just a week away
Within a week, the healthcare system in Armenia will become overloaded and will start turning people away, doctors will be unable to handle the large influx of patients, and healthcare centers will have to start prioritizing which patients to admit.
This is according to the author of the blog “The Political Geography of the South Caucasus” on the online publication Caucasian Knot.
His predictions, which are based on an analysis of data on coronavirus infections, show that because of this load on the healthcare system, all hospital beds in Armenia will have to be repurposed for resuscitating people with coronavirus. And this will lead to a jump in morbidity within hospitals and a rise in mortality rate.
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As of May 25, Armenia has reported record high coronavirus statistics – six new deaths and 452 new cases of infection per day. Since the beginning of the epidemic, 87 people have died, 7,113 have been infected, and 3,145 have recovered and were discharged from hospitals.
The author analyzes the situation in Armenia at the end of the day on May 22. He estimates that the country had 18,200 infectious patients (much higher than the number officially reported), and by the end of the day on May 25 there will be 25,300 people, and this number will grow by about 12.5% per day (close to the natural rate spread of coronavirus).
“This means that the disaster has already occurred, but society does not know about it yet,” writes the author.
“The failed…quarantine led to an exponential increase in the number of infections, and did not help maintain economic growth, but rather led to disastrous health consequences that will start to become clear in a week.
It is impossible to prevent this; but it is urgently necessary to introduce strict quarantine to prevent an escalation and a situation like that seen in Italy, which is looking more and more likely and will finally become a reality by the end of June,” the author of the blog notes.
At the same time, the Armenian authorities have already lifted almost all emergency restrictions introduced since March 16, despite the increase in the number of coronavirus infections. On May 18, public transport started operating in the country, and from May 20, daycare centers will reopen.
Earlier, the restriction on movement was lifted and almost all businesses were opened: including most enterprises, stores, hairdressers, and museums.