Armenia and Azerbaijan peace treaty in Tbilisi: is it possible?

Georgia as mediator between Armenia and Azerbaijan

The idea of a peace treaty between Armenia and Azerbaijan took center stage after a meeting of the leaders of Azerbaijan and Armenia, held in Prague with the mediation of the Council of Europe and the President of France.

A statement released after the meeting says that Azerbaijan and Armenia reaffirmed their commitment to the UN Charter and the Alma-Ata Declaration of 1991, according to which both sides recognize each other’s territorial integrity and sovereignty.

Azerbaijani President Ilham Aliyev told journalists in Prague that in the event of “good will” from Armenia, they may sign a peace agreement by the end of this year.

There is talk that the agreement may be signed in Tbilisi.

“This could happen in late November or early December,” writes the Armenian edition of Hraparak, based on unnamed sources.

The portal claims that the “Western version” of the peace treaty will be signed in Tbilisi, which means Armenia’s official and final renunciation of Karabakh.

So far neither Armenian nor Azerbaijani official sources confirm this information. Some in Armenia suggest that this is a rumor spread by the pro-Russian opposition in order to stoke protest against Pashinyan and the West.

JAMnews asked the Ministry of Foreign Affairs of Georgia whether a signing is planned.

The role of Georgia in negotiations between Armenia and Azerbaijan

Georgia mediating between Azerbaijan and Armenia is not new, and certain steps were taken in this direction last year.

After the agreement reached in October between Armenia and Azerbaijan in Prague, the role of Georgia in this process was emphasized.

According to the press service of the President of Azerbaijan, Aliyev spoke of the importance of Azerbaijan-Georgia-Armenia regional cooperation in the South Caucasus in order to ensure peace and stability in the region.

After the Prague meeting, on October 24, Aliyev arrived in Tbilisi and at a meeting with Prime Minister Garibashvili apparently an agreement reached between Azerbaijan and Armenia was discussed.

After the meeting, the Prime Minister of Georgia said that Georgia is ready to continue the promotion of a peaceful policy.

Consequently, Georgia was expected to play a role in the peace agreement between Armenia and Azerbaijan.

A few days ago, information was circulated on Armenian media that the agreement is planned to be signed in Tbilisi, and preparations are being made.

On this issue, JAMnews turned to the Ministry of Foreign Affairs of Georgia — who told us that they would not comment on the issue.

Nevertheless, it is obvious that Tbilisi-Baku-Yerevan contacts have noticeably intensified of late.

After Aliyev’s visit to Tbilisi, the administration of the Georgian government released a statement about the telephone conversation between Garibashvili and Nikol Pashinyan.

As noted in the statement, the colleagues discussed various issues on the agenda of Georgian-Armenian cooperation. In addition, Pashinyan informed his Garibashvili about the results of the trilateral meeting held in Sochi on October 31, which was attended by the leaders of Armenia, Azerbaijan and Russia.

According to the government press service, Garibashvili and Pashinyan also exchanged views on close cooperation in the region and current problems.

Georgia as mediator between Armenia and Azerbaijan

Commentary from Tbilisi

How realistic is the signing of this agreement between Armenia and Azerbaijan in Tbilisi, and if it really happened, what significance would it have both for the region and for international politics? JAMnews turned to Doctor of International Relations, GIPA Professor Tornike Sharashenidze:

“Obviously there is a chance, and everyone around is talking about it. The signing of an agreement is the most acceptable today for both parties. In Armenia, they realized that there was no one to protect them and that a compromise had to be found with Azerbaijan. Russia is not protecting them, and they understand this very well.

On the other hand, Azerbaijan also seems to understand that a more friendly and constructive government than the one in Armenia today will not happen, and that now there is a chance to achieve peace. In addition, Azerbaijan realizes that if they start a new war now and directly touch the territory of Armenia, then Russia may intervene.

Both sides are well aware of these points, and the fact that Georgia has maintained a neutral status since the beginning of the war in Karabakh is beneficial both for Georgia and the region.

Georgia maintains friendly relations with both sides and is an acceptable partner for both, not only because it maintains friendly relations, but also because it has no vested interest in this conflict.

We are not Russia, we only need peace in the region, no self-interest. Others are well aware of this and therefore we are an acceptable partner for both.

The signing of this agreement in Tbilisi will undoubtedly emphasize that, first, Russia’s role in the region has seriously weakened, and second, our role has strengthened. Therefore if this really happens, it will be very good for everyone.

Turkey is an unacceptable partner for Armenia, Moscow is an unacceptable partner for Azerbaijan and probably unacceptable for Armenians, because relations between them have deteriorated.

Before the start of the war in Ukraine, Russia lobbied a lot for the 3+3 format, where, of course, we did not participate, but the war seriously changed the situation and gave us, the region, the opportunity to talk about a trilateral format without Russia. Of course, such a format was unacceptable to us, because it excluded the West, and in any negotiations with Russia without the West, you are very vulnerable. But three regional states are certainly acceptable to us. Here we have nothing to share with anyone. And this also suits the West. Strengthening the role of Tbilisi in this region, of course, indirectly means strengthening the role of the West, because we will be the first ally of the West in the region. So if the process really goes like this, I repeat, it will be very good for everyone.”

Georgia as mediator between Armenia and Azerbaijan