Opinion: 'For years Georgia supported Armenia – now it’s Armenia’s turn'
Armenia will support Georgia: Giorgi Tumasyan’s view
“Armenia must ensure that agents of a foreign state, in this case Russia, do not seize power through elections, let alone through acts of terrorism or a coup, and it must take all possible measures to prevent such a scenario, because this is fundamentally a matter of national security,” said international affairs expert Giorgi Tumasyan.
Speaking on an Armenian television channel, he discussed the lessons Armenia should draw from the situation in neighbouring Georgia, warning that the country had failed to properly assess the risks of a potential power grab, which ultimately left it under pressure from Russia.
He highlighted that Georgia faces a direct military threat and shares a border with Russia, which has occupied parts of its territory. Tumasyan argued that for many years Armenia had been shielded from Russian pressure thanks to Georgia’s strategic position, and he suggested that now it was Armenia’s turn to “support” Georgia.
He added: “Everyone in Georgia hopes that Armenia will be able to maintain its sovereignty, thereby safeguarding democracy in the region and preserving its alliances with the West. In the future, once the threat from Russia diminishes—a factor dependent on the progress of the war in Ukraine—Georgia will have the opportunity, with Armenia’s support, to quickly resume its path towards European integration.”
Tumasyan also commented on the prospects for the “Trump Route” transit project, emphasising that unlocking regional transport and communication links would be mutually beneficial for both Armenia and Georgia, providing expected advantages without creating competition between the two countries.
- EU envoy: ‘Ukraine and Moldova are ahead of Georgia, which is now further from EU than when it received candidate status’
- Opinion: “Russia is trying to hurt Armenia’s economy using a proxy – and Georgia is the proxy”
- Opinion: ‘Restoring Georgia’s dialogue with West benefits Armenia’
Commentaries
According to international affairs expert Giorgi Tumasyan, Georgia, which “stood firmly on its feet for 30 years with Western support, has now turned anti-American and anti-European.” He argued that Tbilisi’s foreign policy has “illegally deviated” from the path enshrined in the country’s constitution.
Tumasyan added: “Even Armenia was never anti-American or anti-European while under Russian pressure. But Georgia has now taken that turn, and it is a very serious problem. As a result, the West is reluctant for economic incentives, including transit projects and infrastructure, to pass through Georgia, instead placing its bets on Armenia.”
He emphasises that no new roads under the “Middle Corridor” programme are being built through Georgia. He suggests China might have an interest, given its close ties with Tbilisi, but Europe is reluctant to work with Georgian authorities, whom he describes as “acting against the will of the people.”
The expert argues that Georgia has become an “unreliable partner” due to Russia’s influence.
“At the same time, Armenia is emerging as a reliable partner for the West, China, and the Organisation of Turkic States. This draws attention and encourages global actors to engage with Yerevan as a subject in its own right. Armenia now has that opportunity,” he says.
However, Tumasyan also warns of risks. He points out that Russia is attempting to establish a governance model in Armenia similar to Georgia’s.
He says Russia’s hybrid attacks aim to secure control over transport routes across the Eurasian continent. Moscow, he argues, wants to force every discussion on reopening regional links to go through Russia. He lists Washington, Brussels, Beijing, Ankara and Baku as the key actors Moscow hopes to pull into such talks.
He also argues that the Kremlin sees one path to this geopolitical goal. It believes it must “install itself in power” in Armenia. And he says Moscow views any method as acceptable for that purpose.
The expert lists the following tactics:
- preparing terrorist attacks, coups, and other destabilisation attempts
- using the church and involving clerics in political activity
- relying on a Russian oligarch — meaning dollar-billionaire Samvel Karapetyan, who is currently in custody on accusations of plotting to seize power — and spending vast sums of money
He stresses that Russia shows no hesitation in its choice of methods. “For Russia, nothing else matters. Its aim is to reclaim power. And once the Kremlin does that, the outcome described in point nine of the 9 November statement will follow. This amounts to treason,” he says.
He recalls a statement released on 9 November 2020. It said that Russia would take control of transport routes passing through Armenian territory. He contrasts this with the Washington Declaration of 8 August 2025. That document states that Armenia will oversee these routes itself. It also says that the United States will work with Armenia to build them.
The expert argues that Armenia must use the current period of regional peace to reinforce its sovereignty. He also urges the government to strengthen the country’s armed forces. In his view, only this will ensure that “no one can overturn the new status quo in the years ahead.”
Armenia will support Georgia: Giorgi Tumasyan’s view
