Armenia begins EU accession process: No answer on whether it is welcomed in Europe
Armenia’s EU accession
Armenia has taken its first official and formal step towards the European Union. The country’s parliament passed a bill which states: “The Republic of Armenia announces the start of its accession to the European Union, expressing the will of its people and aiming to make the republic safe, secure, developed, and prosperous.” The next logical step in this process should be holding a referendum on EU membership. It seems that the majority of citizens are ready to vote “in favor.”
How it all started, what the public expects, what pro-Western forces and the government are hoping for, and what concerns the Armenian opposition.
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EU accession bill – civil initiative
The ongoing collection of signatures for Armenia’s EU accession, seen on billboards along the roads and in TV commercials calling for support, was to be expected. The authors of the initiative are three pro-Western parties in Armenia—”Republic,” “For the Republic,” and the “European Party of Armenia”—along with the NGO “Free Citizen.”
Before the process began, they registered the civic initiative with the Central Electoral Commission of Armenia and organized hearings in the country’s parliament.
According to the constitution, if the organizers manage to collect 50,000 signatures within 60 days, the initiative is included in the parliamentary agenda. The deputies are then obliged to discuss the proposed bill in the National Assembly and make a decision.
In the end, the organizers met the deadline, and the initiative became a topic of active discussion not only in the country but also beyond its borders.
“We view Armenia’s membership in the European Union not only in terms of civilizational direction and joining a geopolitical alliance, but also from the perspective of the country’s security and economy. We see that, from a security standpoint, Armenia is entering into closer relations with EU member states, as well as with the global West, whose gateway for us is the EU itself,” stated one of the authors of the initiative, the head of the NGO “Free Citizen,” Hovsep Khurshudyan, ahead of the parliamentary vote.
Position of Armenian authorities
Although the initiative formally came from pro-Western politicians, some analysts in Armenia believe that its informal author is the ruling party. They were not dissuaded even by the fact that at the initial stage of discussions, the ruling team did not support the idea and expressed doubts about the feasibility of starting the process.
In contrast, they remind that the Armenian government has been declaring its readiness to deepen relations with the European Union for several years. Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan himself stated from the podium of the European Parliament that Armenia is ready to be as close to the EU as Brussels deems possible.
Public sentiment has also gradually shifted over the past few years. Disillusionment with Russia as an ally began after the 2020 Nagorno-Karabakh war. This frustration deepened further after the 10-month blockade of Nagorno-Karabakh by Azerbaijan, the military actions in September 2023, and the departure of over 100,000 ethnic Armenians from the region. The inaction of Russian peacekeepers, who were supposed to prevent all of this, was repeatedly mentioned by the Armenian prime minister to Putin.
However, the final straw came when Azerbaijani forces advanced many kilometers into Armenian territory, and Armenia’s strategic ally, Russia, along with the military bloc CSTO led by it, failed to respond to the Armenian government’s request for assistance. After this, the country froze its participation in the bloc.
Against this backdrop, many crucial decisions in the peace negotiations between Armenia and Azerbaijan have been made in European venues rather than in Moscow..
A key aspect of cooperation with Europe has been the EU’s civilian mission, which has been monitoring the Armenia-Azerbaijan border for several years. Most residents of Armenia believe that it is precisely because of the European observers that the border has been calm in recent times. This view is reinforced by the fact that Azerbaijan has long demanded that Armenia reject the services of the mission. In Baku, this demand is framed as a “rejection of third-party forces on the border.” Furthermore, together with Russia, they tirelessly accuse the mission of espionage.
Since the most important issue for the entire population of Armenia right now is security, which has been provided by European partners, it came as no surprise that people supported the initiative to begin the process of joining the EU.
At the same time, the initial reaction from the ruling team raised doubts about whether the deputies would risk approving the bill. However, after it was unexpectedly reviewed and approved by the government, the fate of the bill became clear. It became evident that the ruling majority would pass it.
“In terms of security, this is a very important component. Of course, the adoption of the law does not mean that we have become a member or a candidate for EU membership. But it is an important step. In this way, we have provided the people with a broad opportunity for choice, as well as the chance for substantive discussions. We have serious risks, and our response to these risks is a balanced foreign policy. We must be able to ensure the stability of this balance,” said Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan after the bill was passed in the first reading.
Will balance be stable? Opposition’s view
While the Armenian authorities talk about strengthening the country’s security in the context of rapprochement with the EU, the parliamentary opposition sees it as only exacerbating existing risks. In their view, the first thing to consider is what will happen to the country if relations with Russia are completely severed.
“The bill is dragging Armenia into a geopolitical confrontation. This will lead to a direct threat to its viability. Moreover, it is unclear how long this process will take, and whether at some point the EU might cease to exist,” says Aram Rustamyan, a deputy from the “Hayastan” faction.
This faction, led by former Armenian President Robert Kocharian, did not participate in the vote on the bill to begin the process of EU accession.
The “Honor and Dignity” faction, informally led by former Armenian President Serzh Sargsyan, also opposes the EU integration process. It was Sargsyan who, in one night in 2013, decided to reject the Association Agreement with the European Union in favor of joining the Eurasian Customs Union under Russia’s leadership.
Both former presidents pursued a pro-Russian course and have not changed their views.
What do Russians think about Armenia’s EU accession?
Initially, Russia responded cautiously to Armenia’s official statements on EU integration, but the legislative initiative has now sparked clear discontent. The first to speak out was Deputy Prime Minister Alexei Overchuk, who is considered the main overseer of Armenian-Russian economic relations:
“For us, of course, this is a signal that the start of the EU accession process is the beginning of Armenia’s exit from the EAEU. This is absolutely clear to anyone who is a little familiar with how these two integration unions are structured. And those people who, as I know, are involved in the discussions in Armenia, claiming that some solution can be found, are, to put it mildly, misleading the Armenian people.”
Later, Russia’s top diplomat, Sergey Lavrov, echoed Overchuk’s remarks:
“Armenia’s membership in the Eurasian Economic Union is incompatible with Yerevan’s desire to join the European Union, as these international unions operate on different principles.”
According to Armenian analysts, if Armenia decides to leave the EAEU, Yerevan will undoubtedly face various restrictions, pressure, and economic sanctions.
No turning back
While the country’s authorities continue with a balancing policy and avoid making drastic moves, pro-European political forces are gaining popularity. Moreover, they assert the irreversibility of the chosen path. Ruben Mehrabyan, vice-chairman of the “For the Republic” party, believes that this is now the will of the people:
“Social surveys with reliable results indicate that this is definitely in line with the expectations of Armenian society. And in our society, a clear barrier has been formed. This is a barrier between the past and the future, where the future is Europe, and the past is Russia.”
The main question now is when the referendum on EU accession will take place. Nikol Pashinyan previously stated that only in this way could a decision on an official change in foreign policy be made. However, no concrete steps in this direction have been outlined yet.
Most likely, no such steps should be expected in the near future. Armenia is gradually approaching the election cycle, with parliamentary elections just a year away. The outcome of these elections could have a profound impact on Armenia’s European ambitions.
Ruben Mehrabyan is confident that the parties opposing EU integration will have no chance in these elections:
“Over the past 4 years, there have been changes of historical scale in people’s minds. This is largely due to the events of 2022, because before that, we were dealing with inertia. This inertia disappeared in September 2022, when there were no longer any illusions about the existence of common interests, goals, or values between Armenia and Russia. It became clear that the two are incompatible.”
In September 2022, the first invasion by Azerbaijani forces occurred on Armenia’s sovereign territory. These attempts were repeated afterward. This concerns the occupation of 200 square kilometers of Armenian territory. In response to Armenia’s request for help, allies in the CSTO military bloc, led by Russia, stated that the border with Azerbaijan has not been delimited.
In response, Nikol Pashinyan stated: “If we say that there is no border between Armenia and Azerbaijan, then there is no CSTO. Because the CSTO has a zone of responsibility defined by borders. If there is no border, there is no zone of responsibility, and if there is no zone of responsibility, then there is no organization.”.
What’s the bottom line?
The question of Armenia’s rapprochement with the European Union effectively has a geopolitical context. It is impossible to ignore the potential consequences and the steps that Russia may take. It would be naive to think that Moscow will easily let Yerevan go, especially in light of the events in Ukraine.
Over the past 30 years, Armenia’s dependence on Russia has only grown. And during Nikol Pashinyan’s tenure, this dependence has not diminished. At least, economic indicators suggest as much.
Another obstacle, as experts warn, is Turkey. The shortest path for Armenia to Europe runs through this country. However, the border has been closed since 1993, and it remains unclear when it will open.
Despite all this, Armenian society is increasingly inclined toward Europe. And a shift in Armenia’s foreign policy seems to be only a matter of time.
Armenia’s EU accession
