Who wants to overthrow Putin—and how? Views from Baku

Fate of Russia and Putin in Trump era

After taking office, Donald Trump adopted positions on many issues that were completely opposite to those of his predecessor. This included a 90-day suspension of USAID funding, which supports major projects aimed at strengthening democratic institutions and local economies in several developing countries.

Among the anticipated developments is how Trump’s stance on Putin’s Russia will evolve after Biden’s departure—whether existing sanctions will be lifted or new ones imposed. These expectations have intensified following remarks by prominent American journalist Tucker Carlson, who claimed the Biden administration had plans to eliminate Putin.

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Putin himself is also in a state of anticipation. This was evident in his brief interview with Russian state television, where he praised Trump, calling him “smart.” He echoed Trump’s claim that the 2020 U.S. election was “stolen.”

“You can’t disagree with him. If he had been president, if his victory hadn’t been stolen in 2020, perhaps the Ukraine crisis in 2022 wouldn’t have happened,” Putin said.

He also described Trump as “not only smart but pragmatic,” adding: “Although we hear news of new sanctions, I doubt he will make decisions that harm the U.S. economy itself.”

The head of the Atlas Research Center, Elkhan Shahinoglu, believes that Trump may either adopt policies toward Russia that are completely opposite to those inherited from Biden or continue along the same path. Drawing historical parallels, the political analyst suggests that Trump will act in line with U.S. interests under the given circumstances.

“Tucker Carlson, the only American journalist known for his closeness to the new White House occupant, Donald Trump, and who managed to interview Kremlin leader Vladimir Putin after the start of the Russia-Ukraine war, wanted to do good but ended up as usual,” Shahinoglu said. In an interview with fellow journalist Matt Taibbi, Carlson claimed that while Joe Biden was president, his administration attempted to eliminate Putin. Whether such a plan existed remains uncertain.

Washington may have believed that without Putin, Russia would stop the war in Ukraine. There is some logic to this.

For instance, if Prime Minister Mikhail Mishustin were to replace Putin, he would likely have little interest in continuing the war. Since his appointment, he has never publicly expressed an opinion on the conflict. Mishustin must be aware that the war has dealt a devastating blow to the Russian economy.”

Regarding Washington’s alleged plan to eliminate Putin, Shahinoglu notes that the U.S. has a history of similar operations. The CIA devised multiple assassination attempts against former Cuban leader Fidel Castro, though they never succeeded.

“In 1973, the CIA orchestrated a coup that replaced Chile’s leftist president, Salvador Allende, with General Augusto Pinochet. Allende was killed during the coup, and Pinochet’s military junta led to the deaths of thousands of Chileans. However, Washington was hardly concerned.”

Carlson believes that Trump will reject the Biden administration’s “No Putin—No Problem” approach from the outset. Indeed, Trump overturned many of Biden’s decisions within days of entering the White House. However, continuity in certain matters is not out of the question.

“When former President Dwight Eisenhower handed over the White House to John F. Kennedy in 1961, the CIA had already developed an intervention plan for Cuba. Though Kennedy disliked the plan, the wheels were in motion, and he did not tell the CIA ‘no.’ Despite ending in an American defeat, Kennedy could not abandon a plan prepared by his predecessor.

Similarly, if Trump is interested, he may find himself compelled to approve pre-existing plans from the CIA and the Pentagon.”

Former Azerbaijani Foreign Minister Tofiq Zulfugarov notes that Putin’s removal could also result from internal Kremlin dynamics.

“In the mountains, horizons recede, and much becomes clearer… Now, about the Russia-Azerbaijan crisis.

A truce on the Russia-Ukraine front is approaching. It will not be a final peace, just a temporary freeze along the current or a similar line of contact.

Both Zelensky and Putin will declare themselves victorious. However, in both Ukraine and Russia, the question of replacing these ‘victors’ with new players will become relevant. Political elites in Ukraine and the ‘Kremlin towers’ have already begun behind-the-scenes maneuvers, preparing for a deadly power struggle.

The West, in contact with these groups, is sending encouraging signals, further escalating the confrontation.

The tragedy involving our aircraft has become a situational backdrop for internal political battles among Kremlin and pro-Kremlin factions.

Judging by the synchronized narratives from imperialist mouthpieces in Russian media and ‘fighters against the Russian empire’ on our side, this appears to be a coordinated multi-level operation.

The nature of the propaganda campaign suggests that its orchestrators within Russia’s security services continue to control their networks not only in Russia but also in Azerbaijan. This implies the involvement of a powerful and ambitious Kremlin faction openly challenging the current Russian leader.

Azerbaijan’s president has made his position clear: Do not drag us into your internal political squabbles. We demand that Russia’s stance on the tragedy involving our aircraft remain strictly within the framework of international law, without any attempts to reduce the matter to ‘underworld-style’ dealings.

The ‘Kremlin towers’ and Western players must understand that the ‘new Prigozhins’ are their problem, and dragging us into this adventure is a dead end.”

Fate of Russia and Putin in Trump era