What's going on between Turkey and Russia? Commentary from Baku

Frequent contacts between Turkey and Russia at the highest level in recent days and the ongoing deadly fighting in Karabakh suggest that these bilateral negotiations are not accidental.

Azerbaijani political scientist Shahin Caferli posted an analysis on Facebook.

“Yesterday, telephone conversations took place between Cavusoglu and Lavrov, as well as between Erdogan and Putin. Syria was the main topic of conversation.

“The day before, Russian aviation struck the training center of the Feylak-ush Sham group (supported by the Turkish government) at Jebel Duweila, located just 10 kilometers from the Turkish border – near the Hatay province. According to various sources, the bombing killed about 80 members and supporters of the Islamist group.

“And on October 23, two ballistic missiles fired from Russian warships docked off the coast of Latakia in the Mediterranean destroyed the oil and oil products market in Jerablus, also under Turkish control.

“A few days earlier, on October 19, Turkish soldiers retreated from observation post number nine, located in Morik, southern Idlib. This area has been surrounded by the forces of Bashar al-Assad for over one year. And if earlier Russia allowed Turkey to communicate with this area, in recent weeks this connection was interrupted, Turkey could not provide food and ammunition.

“In Idlib, the Turkish army still has six military observation posts. The Turkish military contingent may liberate these points as well, but this still does not mean it will leave Idlib altogether.

“Over 10,000 Turkish troops are currently concentrated in Idlib, and President Erdogan considers it vital to keep the area under his control.

What do these events have to do with Karabakh?

We cannot know for sure. It can be assumed that Russia, by the means of increasing pressure in Syria, is trying to push Turkey to a role in ensuring a truce on the Karabakh front. It is precisely due to the Turkish factor that Russia’s former influence on Azerbaijan has weakened, and Moscow believes that Ankara can persuade Baku to stop hostilities,” Shahin Caferli wrote.