Trump’s policies are shaping new reality for Georgia: What to expect – expert opinions
Georgia and Trump: What to expect?
Donald Trump’s approach to redefining U.S. national interests and weakening the European Union presents new challenges for Georgia, according to Georgian experts. If Washington “cedes” Ukraine to Russia, Georgia could be next. However, the situation remains fluid, and much will depend on the EU’s actions, Ukraine’s resilience, and internal divisions within the Trump administration.
JAMnews spoke with Tornike Sharashenidze, professor at the Georgian Institute of Public Affairs; Bidzina Lebanidze, doctor of international relations and research fellow at Friedrich Schiller University in Jena; and Giorgi Labadze, doctor of international relations at Tbilisi State University.
Trump and Ukraine war
According to Tornike Sharashenidze, doctor of international relations, Trump’s stance on the war in Ukraine was evident even during his campaign. At the time, he argued that the war should have been avoided and claimed he would have prevented the conflict as president. Today, he openly supports a deal with Moscow to gain a new ally against China. His call for elections in Ukraine is aimed at pressuring Kyiv and bringing to power someone willing to compromise with Russia.
“It seems Trump believes he needs Russia as an ally against China. That’s why he is determined to end the war at any cost. Continuing the conflict means additional expenses for the U.S., as it must keep supplying Ukraine with weapons. The real question is whether making a deal with Russia in hopes of later negotiating with China is a wise move. But Trump is counting on it,” Sharashenidze commented.
Doctor of International Relations Bidzina Lebanidze believes that improving ties with Russia to counterbalance China has long been a Republican strategy in the U.S.
“That’s why they criticized support for Ukraine—they needed Russia as an ally against China. This may have been part of a long-term strategy. It’s also possible that ending wars fits into Trump’s transnational vision of portraying himself as a ‘great leader.’ In this process, Ukraine is clearly the biggest loser. But it seems Trump doesn’t care what happens to it. This approach disregards not only Ukraine’s interests but also those of the European Union.”
Trump and EU
According to Bidzina Lebanidze, recent statements and actions from Trump’s administration regarding Europe reveal several key points. First, he notes a deepening ideological rift between the U.S. and Europe. Second, this division extends to the war in Ukraine.
“Until now, the U.S. and the EU were bound by shared values. Today, it seems those values no longer align, and worse—they increasingly view each other as competitors in this regard. A striking example is Trump lobbying for Germany’s far-right party, Alternative for Germany (AfD),” Lebanidze commented.
He warns that a U.S.-Russia agreement to end the war without Ukraine’s consent would be dangerous for Europe. The EU is already discussing the risk of further Russian aggression if Ukraine falls into Moscow’s sphere of influence. In that case, Russia’s next targets could be the Baltic states or Moldova:
“This scenario is seen as highly dangerous in Europe. According to expert circles and the EU Security Service, if Russia absorbs Ukraine into its sphere of influence, it will become stronger and likely launch another military provocation—this time against an EU or NATO country,” Lebanidze warned.
In this situation, the EU will need to strengthen and reform its military while working toward a balance of power with Russia, he noted:
“Russia won’t start a direct war with Germany, but it could attempt an invasion of a Baltic state. If that succeeds, what would stop it from acting on a larger scale?”
Europe still has economic leverage. Russian assets worth $260 billion are frozen in the EU, but no decision has been made on whether to transfer this sum to Ukraine.
“European arms deliveries could replace American supplies to Ukraine, but the EU lacks the political will. So far, all discussions remain at the level of talks and debates. This is a key criticism of the EU—they hold conferences, make statements, but fail to take real action,” Lebanidze concluded.
Trump and Georgia
Doctor of International Relations Tornike Sharashenidze highlights that Georgia’s ruling party, Georgian Dream, has placed its bet on Donald Trump in recent years. This could work in its favor if Trump does not impose sanctions on Georgia’s political elite. For the opposition, however, it would be a major blow, as its strategy relies on Western support.
“If Trump does not impose sanctions—and there are no signs that he will—Georgian Dream will emerge from the country’s political crisis unscathed. The party predicted Russia’s victory in Ukraine three years ago, which led to its passive stance on supporting Kyiv. Last year, it bet on Trump, making things even harder for the opposition, which remains oriented toward the West,” Sharashenidze explained.
One of the opposition’s key problems, he argues, is its overreliance on Western sanctions without alternative plans:
“They never ask themselves: if sanctions don’t happen, what do we do? For the past two or three months, all I’ve heard from them is talk about sanctions. But the Georgian public is tired of waiting. Won’t this strategy lead to even greater disillusionment?”
Sharashenidze also dismisses expectations of EU-imposed sanctions as unrealistic:
“I think it was a false hope, and [former President] Salome Zourabichvili played a major role in this. They thought a conversation with Trump would solve everything—but things aren’t that simple, are they?”
He also criticizes the opposition’s decision to reject state funding, which is legally allocated to parliamentary parties that surpass the electoral threshold.
“Nobody knows what the opposition’s plan is. They lost their funding—so what do they have left? Local elections are approaching. How will they campaign without resources? If they had won in Tbilisi—which was almost guaranteed—it could have triggered real change.”
Сблизится ли Грузия с Россией еще больше?
The key question is whether Georgia will fall entirely under Russia’s influence. According to Tornike Sharashenidze, Bidzina Ivanishvili likely prefers to keep the country under his control rather than under direct Russian dominance.
Bidzina Lebanidze argues that Georgia’s fate remains tied to Ukraine. If Ukraine is “torn apart,” Georgia will likely face the same outcome. If the U.S. and Russia reach an agreement that places the region within Moscow’s sphere of influence, Georgia could be part of the concessions.
Russia’s demands are clear: no NATO membership for Ukraine or Georgia and keeping both countries under Russian influence, free from Western intervention.
“Nothing is settled yet,” Lebanidze notes, “and Ukraine may refuse any deal. But for Trump, getting Ukraine to accept his terms is a matter of prestige. Some level of compromise seems inevitable.”
“A month has passed since the Trump administration came to power, but it has yet to clarify what it wants from Georgia. This is natural—they have more important issues to deal with. However, sooner or later, it will become clear what America wants from us, and based on that, a decision on Georgia will be made. It has become evident that in Ukraine, America is interested in natural resources. Something of relevance to the U.S. may also emerge in Georgia,” Labadze believes.
