Political analyst Farhad Mammadov on the tension between Azerbaijan and the US
Tensions between Azerbaijan and the US
Tensions between Azerbaijan and the United States are growing. Baku has already declared at the level of the assistant to the president that USAID cannot operate in the country. This was a response to Washington’s steps against Azerbaijan’s interests, in particular the resumption of the 907th Amendment, which prohibits any American aid to Azerbaijan.
Azerbaijani political scientist Farhad Mammadov commented on the tense relations between Azerbaijan and the US, and offers forecast of their resolution.
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“There is tension in the relations between Azerbaijan and the US. It has become obvious that internal dynamics in the US have limited Washington’s mediation mission on the Armenian-Azerbaijani track. This was evident from the very beginning of the process, when the US diplomacy in its approach highlighted the topic of Karabakh Armenians, fetishised the topic of the “Lachin corridor”, and later went for outright deception, noting that the Azerbaijani side had made some promises about the non-use of force in Karabakh.
Azerbaijan, in turn, created opportunities for the US to mediate in the hope of adjusting the latter’s position, but the internal dynamics and lies from America led to a crisis. Azerbaijan has always pointed out that the existence of Armenian armed forces in Karabakh is unacceptable and they should go away on their own… However, this did not work and the remnants of the armed forces were partially destroyed, while the Armenian Armed Forces, for the most part, organized a shameful escape from Karabakh and took the Armenian population with them.”
“Rejection of the ‘business as usual’ principle by the US”
“The US official noted that the US relations with Azerbaijan will not be as it has always been. That is, the American side has become the initiator of tension in relations. It was the American side that cancelled high-level visits from the US to Azerbaijan and from Azerbaijan to the US. Azerbaijan reacted adequately by cancelling the visit of the Foreign Minister to the US for talks with his Armenian counterpart. That is, Azerbaijan agreed to the negotiations, but cancelled the visit because of the American position.
At the same time, the Presidential Administration of Azerbaijan pointed to the activities of USAID in Azerbaijan, and openly called to refuse cooperation with this organisation in Azerbaijan, and raised the issue of closing this US state structure in Azerbaijan. That is, USAID acted in Azerbaijan when relations were assessed as “Business as usual”, and if the USA refuses the principle of “Business as usual”, then the activity of USAID is questioned. This is fair and logical.
In the US, this initiative of Azerbaijan is perceived with wariness. US-fed Azerbaijani bloggers are organising Youtube covens and broadcasting American narratives about Azerbaijan not going to the Western version of the world and how Azerbaijan can go against the position of such a superpower as the US. But, let me tell you, if we are guided by the principle of might and strength, then we would not have started the war in 2020, but had to live obediently with the presence of an occupation administration in Karabakh”.
“All things pass, and this too will pass, but the residue will remain”
“This thought, engraved on the ring of Prophet Suleiman, has characterized US-Azerbaijani relations throughout their existence. After all, it is not the first time relations have passed from “business as usual” to “business as unusual”. And everything returns to usual”, because if there were no “usual”, there would be no need to introduce these relations into the “unusual”. It’s a bit convoluted, but that’s the way it is.
It is necessary to be patient and to sharpen principle. Azerbaijani diplomacy is good at this. There is no decision on the closure of USAID yet, which means that Baku expects Washington to clarify its position. When relations with Iran deteriorated, the representation of the Supreme Leader of Iran and the Iranian Cultural Centre in Azerbaijan were closed. So far they have not resumed their work, just as the Azerbaijani Embassy has not resumed its activity in Tehran. It is not certain that Iranian structures will resume their activity after the return of the Azerbaijani ambassador to Iran to Tehran, after all, ‘the residue remains’.
So it is with USAID. We are still at the initial stage of tension and much depends on the party that initiated the tension, i.e. the US. If the decision to close USAID is made, it is not certain that USAID will return to Baku after the restoration of relations between Azerbaijan and the US and relations will be restored, because ‘Everything passes and this too will pass, but the residue remains’.“
