Social assistance is shrinking in Azerbaijan: Is poverty falling, or are low-income people losing support?
Targeted social assistance in Azerbaijan
In Azerbaijan, the authorities have raised the income threshold for classifying families as low-income. It would be logical to expect this to increase both the number of people receiving assistance and the amount of support they receive. However, official statistics show the opposite trend: both the number of families receiving targeted state social assistance and the amount paid per person are falling.
According to the State Statistics Committee, as of 1 July, 349,300 people from 78,900 families received targeted social assistance. A year earlier, the system covered 353,300 people from 80,300 families. This means that over the year, the number of families receiving assistance fell by 1,400, while the number of recipients fell by 4,000.
The decline becomes even more striking over the longer term. In mid-2017, 498,400 people received this type of assistance. Over nine years, that figure fell by 149,100, or about 30%. Meanwhile, the country’s population increased during the same period.
These figures raise an important question: have the incomes of low-income families increased enough for them to no longer need social assistance, or has the system stopped reaching some people who still need support?
The income threshold has risen, but social assistance has fallen
Targeted social assistance is not a fixed payment. The authorities calculate it as the difference between the needs-based threshold for all family members and the family’s average monthly income. The calculation takes into account income from the previous 12 months.
In 2025, the needs-based threshold stood at 285 manats (approx. $167.65) per person. In 2026, the authorities raised it to 300 manats (approx. $176.50), an increase of 5.3%. Despite this, the average payment per person fell from 100.37 to 97.94 manats (approx. $59 to $57.70). In nominal terms, the payment fell by 2.43 manats (approx. $1.43), or 2.4%.
Applying the current formula to the average figures suggests that the system calculated recipients’ average monthly income per person at 184.63 manats (approx. $108.60) in 2025 and 202.06 manats (approx. $118.90) in 2026. This represents a nominal increase of 9.4%. Mathematically, the lower payments reflect the fact that, according to the system’s calculations, family incomes grew faster than the needs-based threshold.
However, these figures do not prove that the financial situation of all low-income families has improved. The average for families that remained in the system in mid-2026 is being compared with the average for families that received assistance a year earlier. Families whose payments stopped or whose applications were rejected no longer form part of the new average.
Our calculations, based on official data, show that total monthly payments to recipients fell from about 35.46 million (approx. $20.86 million) to 34.21 million manats (approx. $20.12 million). The government therefore reduced its monthly spending on this group by about 1.25 million manats (approx. $735,300), or 3.5%, in nominal terms.
The assistance has lost even more purchasing power
According to July 2026 data, annual inflation stood at 5.8%, while food inflation reached 7.3%. After taking price rises into account, the purchasing power of the 97.94-manat payment fell by about 7.8% compared with the 100.37-manat payment a year earlier. If we consider only food price increases, the decline approaches 9%.
After receiving assistance, the system brings a family’s calculated income per person up to the needs-based threshold of 300 manats. However, this represents only a 5.3% increase from last year’s level of 285 manats. That increase falls short of overall inflation and especially of food price growth. As a result, even the minimum income of families that remain in the social assistance system has not increased in real terms.
The number of people receiving assistance is not the number of people living in poverty
The State Statistics Committee’s final data for 2025 put the poverty line at 286 manats (approx. $168.20) and the poverty rate at 5.2%. With a population of 10.26 million, this amounts to roughly 534,000 people.
At the end of the same year, 336,000 people received targeted social assistance, or about 3.3% of the population. The authorities use different methodologies and reporting dates to calculate these figures, so we cannot directly compare them. Nevertheless, the gap of about 198,000 people clearly shows that the number of assistance recipients cannot serve as a measure of poverty in the country.
Moreover, earning less than 300 manats does not in itself qualify a person for assistance. Under the rules, a family must show that factors beyond its control have caused its low income. The official criteria allow authorities to reject an application if the family owns or uses a car, has two properties of the same type at different addresses, or has carried out purchase or sale transactions worth more than 12 times the subsistence minimum over the previous 12 months. Authorities can also reject an application if an able-bodied family member has turned down two suitable job offers.
Based on the 2026 subsistence minimum, the threshold for purchase and sale transactions stands at 3,600 manats (approx. $2,118). Authorities can also reject assistance if a family spends 45 manats (approx. $26.50) or more per person each month on utilities and communications. For a family of four, that amounts to 180 manats (approx. $106) in total. The authorities also count money and gifts from relatives, as well as estimated income from a household farm or garden, when calculating family income.
These criteria may help identify hidden income and assets. However, the same rules can exclude a family with a low cash income if it owns an old car, faces high utility bills or mainly survives on financial support from relatives.
The number of pensioners is falling, while more people receive age-related benefits
Another question arises when we examine other social security figures. On 1 July 2025, Azerbaijan had 1,103,300 pensioners. A year later, the figure had fallen to 1.1 million. At the same time, the average pension rose by 10.5% to 594.4 manats (approx. $350). However, the number of pensioners fell by 3,300.
Meanwhile, the number of people who do not qualify for a labour pension but receive a 220-manat age-related benefit (approx. $130) rose from 166,200 to 177,500. We cannot say that the changes in these two groups involve the same people. However, the fall in the number of pensioners as the elderly population grows, alongside the rise in recipients of a lower benefit, requires a separate explanation in terms of access to labour pensions.
What data the government should disclose
To treat a decline in the number of assistance recipients as evidence of falling poverty, we need more than one headline figure. The Ministry of Labour and Social Protection of the Population should report how many families entered the system over the past year, how many stopped receiving assistance, how many applicants faced rejection and why authorities rejected their applications.
The government should also report how many families failed to qualify under each criterion, including car ownership, purchase and sale transactions, utility costs, discrepancies in income data and refusal to accept an offered job. It should also disclose how many decisions authorities reviewed following complaints and what share of assistance recipients are children.
Without this data, we cannot conclude that poverty has fallen. So far, the official statistics show only this: the number of people covered by targeted social assistance has fallen, the average payment has declined in nominal terms, and its purchasing power has fallen even further.
Targeted social assistance in Azerbaijan
