Russian mobilization and Abkhazia: what to expect. Comment

Is mobilization in Abkhazia possible?

“The Kremlin is considering the possibility of mobilizing not only Russians, but also citizens of Abkhazia and South Ossetia, especially those who also have Russian citizenship, for the war in Ukraine.” This is being floated in Russia media. Meduza has reported this citing insider information.

The editor of JAMnews in Abkhazia, Inal Khashig, believes there is no such possibility.

For me, this is a bit strange. If we are talking about Russian citizens permanently residing in the territories of these two republics, then according to the explanations of the Russian Ministry of Defense, partial mobilization does not apply to this category of citizens.

But even if the Abkhazians (I can’t speak for the Ossetians) would be subject, carrying this out would be almost impossible.

Russian military commissariats have no information about potential conscripts in Abkhazia

None of them is registered in any Russian military commissariat. And then the question arises: who will issue agendas?

There is a military registration and enlistment office that has a list of Abkhazians permanently residing in Abkhazia and possessing a Russian passport, which was provided by the passport and visa service.

There is a list, but there is absolutely no information about hypothetical conscripts. And this, perhaps, is the most important thing in this case, since without getting acquainted with the personal files of conscripts, no summons can be issued.

After all, they may not have any army experience, or be disabled, or the father of five young children – that is, not fall under the criteria of partial mobilization announced by Moscow.

Let’s say it was decided to write out the agenda without looking, and then let happen what may. But another puzzle arises – how to hand it over on the territory of another state?

Let’s consider another option.

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If the Kremlin negotiates with the authorities of Abkhazia

Suppose the Kremlin agrees with Sukhum that Abkhazia, as an ally, will be mobilized.

In this case it is no longer necessary for a resident of the republic to have a Russian passport. The main thing is to be a citizen of Abkhazia. Then the military registration and enlistment offices where these citizens are registered are able to sort out the entire existing database and issue summonses to those who fall under the necessary criteria.

Legally, this option is flawless.

However, one must take into account the specifics of the Abkhaz state system with its organic democracy and the mental characteristics of the Abkhaz people.

The announcement of mobilization by the authorities, except for the problems of the authorities themselves, will not amount to anything.

Abkhazians mostly support Russia in its war in Ukraine. Several hundred left to fight as volunteers. But if they are given a summons, I think the opposite effect will result.

Abkhazians will not go to war for an agenda. Even during the Georgian-Abkhazian war in the early 1990s, military registration and enlistment offices did not issue summonses. All those who participated on the Abkhazian side did so of their own free will.

“Second front” and the unresolved Georgian-Abkhazian conflict

There is one more reason why nothing will come of mobilization. Abkhazia still has an unresolved Georgian-Abkhaz conflict. The appeals of the Ukrainian leadership to Tbilisi in retaliation for Russia to open a “second front” in Abkhazia and South Ossetia were heard not only by Georgians, but also by Abkhazians.

The possibility of new aggression is being seriously discussed in the republic. And, naturally, with such a danger, the defenders of the fatherland, with the small number of Abkhazians themselves, are needed here. It is unlikely that anyone will dare fight in the Donbass, not being sure that everything will be calm at home in his absence.

And if, God forbid, the option of a “second front” materializes, the military enlistment offices will still not issue summonses. Such is the tradition – to defend the Fatherland first.

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Is mobilization in Abkhazia possible?