"Georgia no longer expects Russia to ‘hand over’ Abkhazia and South Ossetia". Opinion

Georgia-Abkhazia conflict

Georgian authorities have made clear their pessimism over resolving the conflicts with Abkhazia and South Ossetia, according to Abkhaz journalist Inal Khashig, editor of the newspaper Chegemskaya Pravda. He drew this conclusion from statements made by the Georgian government on the latest anniversary of the August 2008 war.

Georgian Dream claims Saakashvili started 2008 war on US orders — backed by Russia’s Foreign Ministry

The majority of the public, along with the entire opposition, blame Russia for starting the war and for the subsequent occupation of Georgian territory — a position also backed by Georgia’s Western partners.

Inal Khashig:

“Just a year ago, the ruling Georgian Dream party and its leaders were pushing a very different mood in Georgian society.

Prime minister Irakli Kobakhidze even named a deadline for reconciliation, promising that ‘together with our Abkhaz and Ossetian brothers’ Georgia would join the EU by 2030.

Perhaps back then, amid a thaw in relations with Russia, the ‘dreamers’ really believed Moscow would help Georgia regain Abkhazia and South Ossetia. But it seems the government in Tbilisi either misread the signals from the Kremlin, or read them correctly but decided to play by its own rules.

In any case, it no longer matters what exactly dashed Georgia’s hopes. What matters is that the situation with the Abkhaz and Ossetian conflicts has reverted to its frozen state since August 2008.

Now, as before, the Georgian government has neither a timeline for resolving the conflicts nor much enthusiasm about it. The Georgian Dream narrative has returned to its old lines:

• ‘We will not sign a non-aggression pact’;
• ‘We will not hold direct talks with the Abkhaz or the Ossetians’;
• ‘We will regain Abkhazia and South Ossetia by peaceful means’;
• ‘Saakashvili is to blame for everything’.

This says a lot about the current state of the Georgian government.

Tbilisi understands the problem cannot be solved militarily. Russia — even with all its resources focused on Ukraine — will not abandon the Abkhaz and the Ossetians.

The illusion that the Kremlin might ‘hand over’ the coveted territories to Georgia had already vanished by the end of 2024.”

“War is not far off, and Abkhazia must start preparing for it,” says Abkhaz veteran

Aslan Kobakhia: “Abkhazia is an ally of Russia, which is engaged in military actions in Ukraine, and it may face all the consequences. The large-scale military exercises in Georgia involving the U.S. are also concerning”

There is also, of course, Donald Trump, who in effect reconciled Armenia and Azerbaijan — two countries seemingly doomed to eternal enmity. But having received a “commission” for this in the form of the Zangezur Corridor and securing American interests in the South Caucasus, Trump essentially went beyond the plan. With a sense of mission accomplished, he then shifted his focus to resolving the Russian–Ukrainian conflict—apparently intending to end the war on Vladimir Putin’s terms. Georgia, with its territorial problems, does not seem to interest him.

The leaders of Georgian Dream realize that they have no chance of changing anything, even in the current period of covered shifts. That is why Tbilisi has reverted to its old, non-committal messages.

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