Next Pashinyan-Aliyev meeting in Brussels: experts do not expect a breakthrough
Pashinyan-Aliyev meeting in Brussels
Brussels officially confirmed that on May 14 the leaders of Armenia and Azerbaijan will meet through the mediation of the head of the European Council, Charles Michel. Although negotiations between Nikol Pashinyan and Ilham Aliyev have not yet taken place, Western mediators have already announced the possibility of their continuation in Chisinau on June 1, and then, in October, in Granada with the participation of the French and German presidents.
Russia is also stepping up mediation efforts. Talks between the Foreign Ministers of Armenia and Azerbaijan are expected in Moscow on May 19.
On the other hand, the Armenian authorities have recently been increasingly saying that “there is no progress on the key issues.”
Armenian political scientists also believe that it is not worth expecting resolution of differences between the parties in the near future. They consider “Azerbaijan’s maximalism” to be the main obstacle to progress in the negotiation process.
Pashinyan and Aliyev last met in February in Munich. The meeting was mediated by the US Secretary of State. The latest talks between the Foreign Ministers of Armenia and Azerbaijan took place on May 1-4 in Washington. As a result of four days of discussions, Ararat Mirzoyan and Jeyhun Bayramov did not sign a joint statement. However, in the United States, the talks were considered constructive and announced that the delegations participating in them had made significant progress in solving complex problems. Yerevan and Baku believe that “positions on key issues still diverge.”
“Washington talks will continue in Brussels”
Armen Grigoryan, Secretary of the Security Council of Armenia, told journalists that the discussion that began in Washington will continue in Brussels.
“I think that all meetings, negotiations around the peace treaty are a continuation of each other, because it is known what issues will be discussed,” Grigoryan stated.
He said that during the Washington meeting it was not possible to agree on the most important issues:
“This is the fixation of 29,800 square kilometers of the sovereign territory of the Republic of Armenia, and the creation of the Stepanakert-Baku international mechanism, and the creation of international guarantees [of the implementation of the agreements reached]. Pay attention to the current situation: the elements of the November 9 [2020] tripartite declaration on the cessation of hostilities in Karabakh, signed with the mediation of Russia, cannot be achieved. For example, in the Lachin corridor, according to the trilateral statement, Azerbaijan should not be there, but it is there at the moment.”
As for the forthcoming Armenian-Azerbaijani talks in Brussels, Grigoryan believes that Armenia intends to “bring approaches as close as possible and move forward.”
The Prime Minister of Armenia also talked about disagreements with Azerbaijan. According to Pashinyan, the positions of the parties do not fundamentally coincide regarding ensuring the rights of the Armenians of Nagorno-Karabakh and creating an international mechanism that guarantees the fulfillment of the points of the peace treaty.
“Of course, there is some progress. If earlier there was 1 km between the positions of the parties, now it is 990 meters. This is progress, but the discrepancy is still huge.”
Pashinyan-Aliyev meeting in Brussels
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Political scientist Tigran Grigoryan believes that there will be an attempt in Brussels to continue the discussion on key issues and bring the positions of the parties as close as possible, but he does not share the mediators’ optimism:
“There will be an attempt to have in the near future some kind of ready-made text [of a peace treaty] that can be signed. But there are some serious disagreements. I do not think that the parties will be able to come to any compromise or any acceptable agreement, especially on the creation of an international mechanism for direct negotiations on the Nagorno-Karabakh issue.”
Grigoryan also considers it unlikely that “Baku will agree to withdraw its troops from the territories of Armenia occupied since May 2021.”
He notes that on this issue “the differences between the parties are deeper”, so it is difficult to imagine how a compromise can be reached.
Grigoryan recalls that the positions of Yerevan and Baku also differ greatly on the issue of maps that can be used to delimit the border.
“Armenia talks about the recognition of state administrative borders and refers to the maps of the last years of the existence of the USSR. Azerbaijan talks about the so-called “historical maps” and “implementation of delimitation on Azerbaijani terms.” Perhaps, as a result of the intervention of mediators, it will be possible to slightly soften Azerbaijan’s position, but I consider this unlikely, ”he said.
According to Grigoryan, during the meeting in Brussels, special attention will be paid to the topic of unblocking regional roads.
Pashinyan-Aliyev meeting in Brussels
Political scientist Areg Kochinyan believes that the biggest obstacle to progress in the negotiation process is “Azerbaijani maximalism”:
“Baku is intoxicated with victory in the war and is trying to get everything at once. Destructive behavior and maximalist expectations of Azerbaijan cause great damage when discussing unresolved issues. In particular, the issue of the status of Artsakh and guarantees of security and rights of Artsakh Armenians. Moreover, unlike the issue of status, on the issue of guarantees of ensuring rights in the international community there is a certain understanding of what it should be and it is important that it be.”
According to Kochinyan, the problems lie in the details – what this mechanism should be:
“Will this mechanism be a contingent with a certain right to protect people, some kind of observation mission or some kind of technical and legal complex? So far, there is no concrete answer as to what the international mechanism that should ensure the security and rights of Artsakh Armenians will be.”
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Pashinyan-Aliyev meeting in Brussels
