Op-ed: "Western sanctions are inefficient because as West doesn’t understand post-Soviet space"
The West does everything wrong, because it could not get to know the society of the post-Soviet countries, mainly Russian, says Natik Jafarli, an economist and one of the leaders of the Azerbaijani opposition Republican Alternative Party. In his opinion, 80% of the population of Russia consists of the same “Putins” and people repeat what the president of this country says.
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Economist, one of the leaders of the Azerbaijani opposition party “Republican Alternative” Natig Jafarli believes that the only effective “sanction” against Russia could be a fall in oil and gas prices. It would not be the withdrawal of Western companies that would hit the Russian ruble, but the increase in their sales in this country:
“In the short term, Western sanctions against Russia are powerless. Yes, they will have an effect in the medium and long term, but this requires at least two years, or even more. But does Ukraine have the ability to hold out for another two years? That is the question,” says Jafarli.
In his opinion, the West does everything the other way around, because it could not get to know the society of the post-Soviet countries, mainly Russian. Western countries do not understand that 80 percent of the population of Russia consists of the same “Putins”, the people say what the president of this country says.
“Sanctions have been applied against oil – the price has risen. Today Russia sells its oil to India and China. Yes, it sells 20-30% below the cost on world markets, but this is at least $80-90 per barrel, while the cost of oil in Russia is only $10-14.
They applied sanctions against natural gas – the price of gas in the West jumped to the ceiling. Russia sells its gas in the same way as it did, but if earlier (in 2019) it sold 1,000 cubic meters for $240 on average, now it sells for $1,000.
The Economic Times writes that in January-July 2022, India increased the volume of purchases of Russian oil by 50 times!!! If before the start of the war in Ukraine, India purchased only 0.2% of its oil from Russia, now this figure has increased to 11%. China has increased its purchases of Russian oil by 56%. As a result, the problem with fuel prices is observed in the West – in Europe and the USA.
I’m not talking about those primitive and deceitful schemes that Western companies use to make money. The tanker is filled in Russia with oil up to 49% of its carrying capacity, then enters the port of one of the Arab countries, where they add another 51% of local oil. At the same time, the number and identification code of the ship is changed, and then this oil is sold absolutely legally on Western markets.
In other words, nowhere in the world can the way of money and ideas be blocked artificially. Along with the rise in the cost of oil and gas, the trendy “green energy” has become an even more popular topic in the world.
Yesterday, the countries of the “big seven” (G7) decided to ban the purchase of gold in Russia. According to the leaders of these countries, such a move would harm the Russian economy by $19 billion. But again they are wrong. And now Russia sells physical volumes of mined gold not to Western countries, but mainly to India, i.e. the Russian economy will lose nothing again. The gold that was sold to the West will be sold to India and China.
My readers will surely remember that even before the start of the war in Ukraine, I repeatedly wrote that the only way to weaken Russia is not to isolate this country, but, on the contrary, to hug it to the point of suffocation. Only the huge export of Western technology and culture to Russia can change this country.
Yes, Russia will weaken in the medium and long term, but will the world and Ukraine be able to endure until then? That is the question.
The strongest and at the same time the weakest point of the West is democracy and free elections. Rising prices, inflation, instability are hitting Western democracies, weakening the position of the current authorities, preparing the basis for their defeat in the next elections.
And a dictator like Putin is not worried about democracy and free elections, society will not demand this from him. That is why he, being reinsured from the “side effects” of democracy, is waging a wild war, and is ready to wage it for many more months. Society has become “Putinized”, neither economic losses nor the deaths of people frighten them…
Today everyone is talking about a new topic – the default in Russia. There is no such thing, it’s just a technical issue, an artificial default. Russia wants to pay its debts, but can’t because of the sanctions.
Technical defaults are scary for countries because no one gives them loans after that. No one gave them to Russia anyway, and now they won’t either. And what does the Russian bear lose? In a word, they run the world like show business…”, Natig Jafarli wrote on his Facebook page.