Expectations of the Moscow meeting of Mirzoyan-Bayramov. Opinion from Yerevan
Mirzoyan-Bayramov meeting in Moscow
On May 19, a meeting of the Foreign Ministers of Armenia and Azerbaijan is expected in Moscow. The official representative of the Russian Foreign Ministry, Maria Zakharova, said that in addition to a meeting with Sergei Lavrov, talks between Ararat Mirzoyan and Jeyhun Bayramov are also planned. “Moscow hopes that the discussions will help advance the Armenian-Azerbaijani process and resolve contentious issues,” she said.
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On May 25, a trilateral meeting between the Prime Minister of Armenia and the Presidents of Russia and Azerbaijan is also scheduled in Moscow. Nikol Pashinyan himself announced this by the time this article was published: “We received an offer from the President of Russia to hold a trilateral meeting in Moscow through the mediation of the President of Russia, and we accepted this offer.”
Recently, the Armenian-Azerbaijani negotiations have intensified significantly. The foreign ministers held talks in Washington on May 1-4, and the heads of state met in Brussels on May 14. In his statement on the results of this meeting, the head of the European Council, Charles Michel, stressed that Armenia and Azerbaijan reaffirmed their commitment to recognizing each other’s territorial integrity. This time a specific area was indicated — 29,800 square kilometers of Armenia and 86,600 square kilometers of Azerbaijan. This means that the territory of the former NKAO is also recognized as part of Azerbaijan.
Five-party talks are scheduled for June 1, which will involve the leaders of Armenia and Azerbaijan, as well as the head of the European Council, the President of France and the Chancellor of Germany.
Tigran Grigoryan, political scientist
Russia is trying to regain lost ground
“Moscow’s motives are obvious. Recently, the process seems to have gotten out of Russia’s control. We see that at this stage the main negotiations are taking place on the western sites. By organizing this meeting, Russia is trying to regain lost ground.
It is difficult to predict how negotiations on the text of a peace treaty between Armenia and Azerbaijan might go.
There are disagreements between Russia and the West on some issues on this agenda. Perhaps for this reason, bilateral negotiations are also planned, during which the points of the peace agreement will be discussed.”
Some progress is possible
“It is possible that there will be an opportunity to build on the progress that has already been recorded in Brussels. We are talking about progress on the issue of the restoration of the railway. Perhaps the parties will continue active work in this direction. Although we know that there is a separate format for discussing the unblocking of regional communications — deputy prime ministers.
The key issue is a peace agreement, a number of areas on this agenda on which the parties still have disagreements. On issues related to Karabakh Russia has one position, the West has another.
Russia does not want complex solutions here; by and large, its strategic goal is to maintain the status quo. Meanwhile, both Brussels and Washington want to reach a solution to this issue. And in this sense it is difficult to expect any cooperation between the mediators, the possibility of complementary positions.
The signing of a peace treaty creates serious risks for Russia
“It should be taken into account that the parties are not so close to signing a peace agreement, despite all the optimistic statements. In matters relating to Nagorno-Karabakh, in particular, regarding the creation of an international negotiating mechanism for dialogue with Azerbaijan, the positions of the parties are opposite. It is hardly possible to find any compromise solutions. This issue is a red line for both sides.
Armenia cannot sign an agreement without an international mechanism, and Azerbaijan cannot accept the existence of any international mechanism. I don’t think the situation is close to being resolved.
On the other hand, we see that there is a certain reaction of Moscow to these processes, the fear that they are losing their role in the region. It is clear that the statement by Foreign Minister Lavrov [“The United States and its allies say, let’s come to us, drive the Russians out of your territory”] is a reaction to the processes taking place in recent weeks.”
Maybe pressure from Moscow
“Russia still has quite serious levers of influence on Armenia. We are talking not only about military or political levers, but, first of all, economic and energy ones. A few weeks ago, a ban was introduced on the import of Armenian dairy products into Russia. It was a signal that if such steps [working with the West] continue, there may be more serious sanctions.
Of course, if Russia sees that Armenia is crossing some red lines, it will use all available tools to influence these decisions.”
Even after signing the document, Baku can use force:
“Border provocations are carried out precisely in order to influence the negotiation agenda. Azerbaijan is seeking concessions from Armenia through military pressure or threats. Baku has been using this tactic since at least May 2021.
I do not think that there can be serious guarantees that Azerbaijan will change this position, it will continue to work in the same spirit. It should be understood that even after the signing of the document, many processes will continue. That is, there will be only agreements that still need to be implemented. Throughout the process, Azerbaijan will try to continue to use this toolkit.
That is why Armenia already at this stage is talking about the mechanism of guarantees, about the mechanisms for implementing the agreement. On the other hand, it is clear that in the current international situation, no external player will be ready to give such guarantees. And even after the signing of this document, Baku will have the opportunity to exert force on Yerevan.”
Tension on the border with Azerbaijan remains. The Armenian Defense Ministry periodically reports on the shelling of Armenian positions by the Azerbaijani Armed Forces. A day ago, one soldier was wounded; he died on the way to hospital. The Armenian Defense Ministry reports that the ambulance in which the wounded was transported was also fired upon, as a result of which the paramedic was also wounded.
The situation on the border in the direction of Gegharkunik region escalated last week. As a result of the actions of the Azerbaijani Armed Forces, one person from the Armenian side was killed, eight were injured. Baku reported one dead and one seriously wounded.
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Mirzoyan-Bayramov meeting in Moscow
