Luke Coffey on Georgia: "There is no 'deep state'; it is merely government propaganda"
Trump and Georgian Dream
“There is no ‘deep state’ in the U.S. State Department attempting to undermine U.S.-Georgia relations. This is merely propaganda from Georgian Dream,” Luke Coffey, senior fellow at the Hudson Institute and a long-time expert on Georgia, said in an interview with Radio Liberty’s Georgian service.
“Georgian Dream’s representatives must understand that the Trump administration will not tolerate such an attitude toward them,” he said.
Commentary
Luke Coffey, senior fellow at the Hudson Institute and a long-time expert on Georgia:
“I have no expectations that Georgia’s government will return to its previous path of Euro-Atlantic integration. At best, Georgian Dream might make some concessions—to the political opposition and civil society.
In the longer term, once there is a democratic change of power in the country, U.S.-Georgia relations will likely return to their previous course.
That said, it’s hard to imagine Georgian Dream making any concessions at this point. They believe they are playing their hand well, largely because of the West’s, particularly Washington’s, weak response to their actions.
“The U.S. response is too slow and ineffective”
The Biden administration’s approach to Georgia largely mirrors the mistakes it made regarding Ukraine. They consistently delayed action, opting for measures that gave the appearance of progress rather than taking swift and necessary steps.
Take, for example, the public statements and sanctions imposed by the Biden administration on high-ranking Georgian Dream officials. These actions were always delayed and lacked sufficient strength. It’s no surprise they failed to have a meaningful impact on the current situation.
If it comes to the point where the U.S. does not recognize the legitimacy of the Georgian Dream government, this would mean that U.S. attention and resources should shift toward those who can be considered legitimate—the Georgian people.
A similar scenario has unfolded in Belarus, where U.S. efforts and resources are focused on civil society, NGOs, and political opposition groups.
“Recall the ambassador and appoint a chargé d’affaires”
For a long time, Georgian Dream has openly criticized U.S. ambassadors without facing any significant response.
In my view, the U.S. should downgrade its diplomatic representation in Georgia by appointing a chargé d’affaires instead of an ambassador. This would send a clear message that the U.S. does not recognize the government as legitimate.
Let’s be honest—U.S. ambassadors in Georgia in recent years have not been as effective as they should have been. So, in practical terms, this change would have little immediate impact, but on a geostrategic level, I believe it would send the right signal.
“Trump talks about annexing Canada—does anyone think he’ll tolerate disrespect from Georgian authorities?”
The way Georgian Dream representatives speak about U.S. ambassadors is not the kind of dialogue the U.S. expects from a partner.
Georgian Dream must understand that Donald Trump’s administration will not tolerate such behavior. This is someone who talks about annexing Canada—do you think he would accept even a moment of disrespect toward himself or his appointed ambassador? Of course not.
If I were a Georgian citizen, I wouldn’t want my country to become the Belarus of the Caucasus. But the sad reality is that this is exactly the direction things are heading.
Violence against civil society, the media, and protesters—slowly but surely, Georgian Dream is leading Georgia down this path.
“Unfortunately, the opposition failed to counter the fearmongering narrative that someone is trying to drag Georgia into a war”
There is no “deep state” attempting to undermine U.S.-Georgia relations. This is simply Georgian Dream’s effort to ingratiate itself with Trump through disinformation and propaganda.
Many of Trump’s key supporters in Congress actually back sanctions legislation targeting the Georgian authorities. Support for democracy in Georgia comes from both American parties—Republican and Democratic alike.
As for Georgian Dream’s claim about a so-called “global war party” allegedly pressuring Georgia to open a second front and join the war with Russia, I have never heard any serious analyst, political expert, lawmaker, or commentator in America entertain this idea.
This is yet another example of Georgian Dream trying to scare the Georgian public. They used this narrative quite effectively before the elections. Unfortunately, the political opposition has failed to mount a significant response to challenge this argument.”
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