Is France blackmailing Azerbaijan? Analysis from Baku
France policy on Azerbaijan
The resolution of the French Senate of November 15 is a policy of blackmail against Azerbaijan, the South Caucasus Analytical Center, based in Baku, believes, and Paris is attempting to revive the OSCE Minsk Group and gain a foothold both in Armenia and Azerbaijan.
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On November 15, 295 members of the French Senate, with the exception of Senator Natalie Goulet, adopted a resolution against Azerbaijan, accusing it of violating the agreement of November 10, 2020 and aggression against Armenia. Immediately after the adoption of the resolution, the Ministry of Foreign Affairs of Azerbaijan issued a response statement calling the document “far from reality, reflecting false and slanderous statements and openly provocative.”
The following day, the Azerbaijani parliament recommended that the country’s government consider the issue of expediency of diplomatic and economic relations with France. The French Ambassador to Baku was summoned to the Azerbaijani Foreign Ministry, where he was given a note of protest.
“Policy of blackmail”
“The resolution itself is a policy of blackmail against Azerbaijan. In November 2020, the French parliament adopted a resolution calling for recognition of the independence of the self-proclaimed regime in Karabakh. The French government is trying to use this resolution to forestall the apparent collapse of the OSCE Minsk Group. Thus, the government refused to recognize the self-proclaimed regime, citing as an argument the presence in the Minsk Group as a co-chair,” the South Caucasus Analytical Center noted.
According to Azerbaijani experts, the position of France can be characterized as:
Mandate of the co-chairman = non-recognition of the self-proclaimed regime.
Termination of the mandate of the co-chairman = recognition of the self-proclaimed regime.
“Although Baku has not officially stopped cooperating with the Minsk Group, in the past two years it has been doing what Armenia had been doing for 25 years before that – it is actually ignoring the OSCE Minsk Group. France is trying to return the formal existence of this structure by politically blackmailing Azerbaijan by adopting a new resolution against the country,” the experts added.
France policy on Azerbaijan
“France is trying to expel Russia from the region”
In their view, another of France’s goals is to expel Russia from the South Caucasus region and strengthen its own position:
“Criticism of Russia on the country’s public TV channels, the inclusion of border tensions on the agenda of the UN Security Council, the dispatch of a European Union mission to Armenia – all these steps have been taken.
But at the same time, France understands that official Baku will not allow it to gain a foothold in the South Caucasus at the expense of Azerbaijan’s interests. With this in mind, France is trying to put forward two political lines in the November 15 resolution.
For one, it wants to deploy international forces to the border regions of Armenia on the pretext of increasing the defense capability of Armenia and ensuring its security within the internationally recognized borders. There is also an attempt to interfere in the internal affairs of Azerbaijan through Armenia and the Karabakh Armenians.
The resolution condemns exclusive control of Lachin, declares the importance of the invariance of the status of the Lachin corridor and demands that Azerbaijan return to its previous positions. The French Senate recommends the government of their country consider the establishment of a humanitarian office in Karabakh, and the demands to ensure the security of the Armenian population and the return of internally displaced persons amount to an attempt to relocate Armenians to Hadrut, Shusha and other localities. With this resolution, France wants to ensure its presence in both Armenia and Azerbaijan (Karabakh).”
“Resolution possibly includes sanctions against Turkey”
Azerbaijani analysts argue that this issue should also be considered in the context of French-Turkish relations.
“Concerned about the growing role of Turkey on an international scale, France is trying to divert Turkey with Greece in the west, Syria in the south and Armenia in the east.
What to expect from Azerbaijan?
“Azerbaijan is still demonstrating a wait-and-see attitude to determine what the other side can do.
When this is done, Azerbaijan is very likely to take decisive and adequate steps based on the circumstances,” the experts of the South Caucasus Analytical Center believe.
France policy on Azerbaijan
