Azerbaijan’s geopolitical strategy: key messages from Ilham Aliyev

Ilham Aliyev and forum on new world order

An international forum titled “Facing a New World Order” was held at the initiative of the Azerbaijan Diplomatic Academy (ADA) with the participation of the President of the Republic of Azerbaijan, Ilham Aliyev.

The head of state answered questions from the forum’s participants.

Here are the key points from his address.

On liberation of Karabakh from occupation and its political implications

[…]  you (forum participants) visited Khankendi yesterday. This city, which unfortunately for many years — for more than three decades — was a center of Armenian separatism in Azerbaijan.

Actually, the separatist movement, inspired and sponsored by Armenia, started in that city. This is the historical land of Azerbaijan. The very name Khankendi demonstrates its Azerbaijani origin and roots, which means the village of the Khan.

The creation of the Nagorno-Karabakh Autonomous District in 1923, was actually a time bomb, which exploded when it was needed for separatists, their sponsors, and various actors who used the conflict for their political purposes.

We put an end to that a year and a half ago, with a military operation lasting less than 24 hours, which actually was the last point in our battle for sovereignty.

Azerbaijan’s involvement in developments in Central Asia and the Middle East: “Just look at the map”

[…] we […] established, I think, very strong ties with our neighbors across the Caspian and to the south of Azerbaijan, particularly with the countries in the Middle East. With respect to the long-lasting cooperation with European countries, Azerbaijan signed or adopted the declaration on strategic partnership with many of them. 

So, this already established platform allows us to play an important role as a geographical, political, economic, and transportation bridge between the Central Asia region and Europe. We know that there is a big interest now in Central Asia from the West – whether it’s European Union or the United States or other international institutions.

And, of course, planning long-term cooperation with that region, it’s only enough to look at the map to understand that Azerbaijan cannot be avoided.

Though, there are some in Europe, which would prefer to separate Azerbaijan not only from this process but also to build the dividing lines in the Caucasus, particularly in the Southern Caucasus

But these attempts will definitely not succeed, because not only geography, but also political, economic, cultural connections between Azerbaijan and the countries of Central Asia actually create this very unique atmosphere of partnership.

So, geographically, Azerbaijan is a country of the Southern Caucasus, a Caspian country, but at the same time, we’re right next to Central Asia—only the Caspian Sea separates us. From the point of view of practical cooperation, transportation, and the Middle Corridor, we have done a lot to help build bridges and to increase the volume of cargo.

On the possibility of long-term peace, cooperation, and a regional integration model similar to the European Union in the South Caucasus — particularly between Azerbaijan, Armenia, and Georgia

If we look at the relationship between Azerbaijan and Georgia, we will see all those segments, which I just mentioned – energy security, transportation, political dialogue, investments, economic advantages. So, Armenia actually deprived itself of that, and actually, as a result of occupation and aggression, deprived itself of becoming a transit country, important transit country for Azerbaijan’s energy resources and transportation routes.

And all the transit – whether it’s oil, gas, or cargo – from Azerbaijan goes through Georgia. So, Armenia could have been part of that process. It’s their fault that they miscalculated the future development and sacrificed their economic future, their real independence for this dream of “great Armenia”

When an agreement between Azerbaijan and Armenia is signed, then, of course, there will be no obstacle to the beginning of cooperation

I believe we should not lose time because, once again, with respect to the peace agreement, the ball is in Armenia’s court.

IOn many occasions, I have already made it public what we expect from Armenia regarding our territorial integrity and their constitution. So it is known as soon as it is done and the peace agreement is signed, so there’ll be no obstacle for the South Caucasus to try to be an integrated region.

So, we’ll be waiting for the position of the Armenian side. And if that happens, small steps can begin—such as exchanges of visits between journalists and intellectuals, or perhaps joint sessions on transboundary rivers, as this is a serious concern for Azerbaijan.

With these small steps, we can try to reduce mistrust. To build trust it will take years, but at least to reduce it, so we are ready for that.

Against the backdrop of Azerbaijan’s relations with Turkey and Israel: “The first successful normalisation between Turkey and Israel was, to some extent, mediated by Azerbaijan”

Both countries are close friends of Azerbaijan. With Turkey, we are allies. We signed the Shusha Declaration in 2021, and formally became allies, though our alliance relationship de facto existed long time before this formal procedure.

Israel is a friendly country to Azerbaijan, and for many years, mutual friendship have been demonstrated in difficult times for both of us. Therefore, of course, these tensions between the two countries are very disturbing for us, and a matter of concern. As it is already known, though we never made it public ourselves, but already it circulates quite broadly. 

The first successful reconciliation between Turkey and Israel was to a certain degree facilitated by Azerbaijan. 

Because what now happens between the two countries is not the first crisis. It is the second in the foreseeable past. So, during the first crisis, we played an active role in order to try to bring countries closer, and it was not only Azerbaijan. I would say that Azerbaijan was number one in this process.

It is always bad when your friends have bad relations. It is bad for them. It is bad for us and bad for the world. Because I think despite legitimate concerns and despite quite a high level of mistrust, still, there can be found the grounds for normalization, and the areas of mutual interest.

On relations between the United States and Azerbaijan

From my personal experience, which I have shared on a couple of occasions, of course, working with the Republican administration was much more comfortable than with the Democratic administration.

I started my presidential duties in 2003 during the time of President George Bush, and relations between two countries were very good. We, both of us, highly appreciated mutual support and considered and publicly announced the strategic importance of our bilateral relations.

Azerbaijan was among the first non-NATO countries, which joined operations in Afghanistan and in Iraq, and that was based on the request from the US administration.  Otherwise, we wouldn’t have been there. We provided not only physical support through large number of our military servicemen, but also provided important transportation link to Afghanistan, whether it’s air connection or our land facilities and through Caspian Sea.

It was highly appreciated by the U.S. governments during the administration of President Bush. The situation changed a little bit, but not dramatically, after President Bush ended his duties.

However, during the Biden-Blinken administration, relations between the United States and Azerbaijan can be characterized as being in crisis. And the reason for that was not us.

We have always sought good relations with the United States — the world’s most powerful country.

We have always wanted to have good relations with the United States, which is a strongest country in the world, but it was because of anti-Azerbaijani policy of the State Department run by Mr. Blinken and many anti-Azerbaijani people in the administration of President Biden. So, I can name various facts, which created frustration in Azerbaijan. I think only one is enough: how sanctions were re-imposed on Azerbaijan.

When Azerbaijan was needed to the United States, the so-called section 907 to the Freedom Support Act, which was discriminatory to Azerbaijan, was waived, and every president of the United States was issuing a waiver every year.  But as soon as the Biden-Blinken administration ran away from Afghanistan – and all of us saw how they did it – they re-imposed this amendment against us again. 

So being so unthankful is very harmful for the administration itself, because who will trust them after that? And our level of trust to Biden-Blinken team was close to zero. Our relations were in deep crisis.

Our Prosecutor General’s Office is investigating the illegal activities of USAID

As soon as the Biden-Blinken team left office, all these insinuations against Azerbaijan immediately stopped. Their media, which was very aggressive toward us—those that President Trump calls “fake news,” like The Washington Post, The New York Times, Politico, etc.— immediately stopped publishing all the ugly articles about Azerbaijan.

By the way, our general prosecutor is investigating the illegal activity of USAID. I was already informed about preliminary investigation, and it demonstrates the scope of anti-Azerbaijani activity and attempts to undermine our government, clear attempts to intervene and interfere in our internal affairs. s soon as the portfolio is ready, we will submit it to President Trump’s administration, so they can take serious measures about this corrupt USAID and its corrupt leaders. 

[…] taking into account the agenda of Trump’s administration, we can foresee that this period in our relations will be a very good opportunity to strengthen our partnership, and also we have experience in working with Trump’s administration during his first term, which was also very positive.

On energy cooperation with Europe: “The European Union wants to receive more gas from Azerbaijan”

I raised two important issues that must be addressed by European financial institutions and the European Commission if they wish to continue receiving large volumes of gas and expand gas supplies from Azerbaijan.

The first is financial institutions’ policy. In all our energy projects, whether it’s oil and gas, upstream, downstream, there was a kind of agreed ratio between corporate financing and borrowed money. It was usually 70% borrowed money, 30% corporate money.

Now, the European Union wants more gas from Azerbaijan, and for that reason, the President of the European Commission, Madam Ursula von der Leyen, visited Azerbaijan in July 2022, when the European Union was very concerned about the gas supplies, and we signed the Declaration on Strategic Partnership in the field of energy. 

Since then, based on the request from the European Commission, we have increased the gas supply to Europe almost at the level of 60%, from 8 BCM in 2021 to almost 13 BCM in 2024. Many more European countries, including Croatia, became the recipients of the Azerbaijani gas. 

Now, we have more gas for export from existing fields, where we’ll have new phase of development. From the fields, which are producing gas on the initial stage, and we will have several billion cubic meters of gas just because we will install green energy power plants that will save us the gas, which today we use to produce electricity. So all that roughly increases our potential gas supply by a minimum of 10 BCM.

This embargo on fossil fuel financing must be lifted. Well, they need just to look at what President Trump is doing on fossil fuel and not to be late.

Second, an important factor is long-term contracts.  When the European Union says that in 2050, they will be carbon neutral, and then they ask me to invest money and to produce more gas. 

Where that gas will go? If you do not get it from us, then why should I invest or why should I look at your market as my main market? Yes, the European Union market is premium in terms of legislation, rules, procedures, and interconnectivity, and with respect to price. But we can look for other markets, the demand for Azerbaijani gas in our neighborhood, we should not only look to the West, we can look to the East, to the South. This is important for the future development of Azerbaijan’s gas industry, and for energy security of Europe.

We know the problems of the European energy security. Despite the fact that now they think they are on the safe side, we know the demands of the industry. We know the demands even in green energy, despite large investments in green energy, still the European Union will be in shortage of electricity, and for that purpose, we are now working on the green energy cable under the Black Sea from Azerbaijan to Romania.

Four gigawatt (capacity) by the way, and it’s only the beginning

So, the European Commission should take off its glasses, look at the world from a realistic point of view, and appreciate countries like Azerbaijan, rather than trying to divide the Caucasus into their favorites and those they don’t like.

Azerbaijan’s position on Russia’s war in Ukraine

First, regarding our position on the war between Russia and Ukraine, we always supported, support and will continue to support Ukraine’s territorial integrity and sovereignty. As a country that has suffered from occupation and the deterioration of our territorial integrity, we fully understand this situation. Anyone you ask will say, “We want the war to stop immediately.” Yes, we also want that.

However, the key question is how, and whether this ceasefire—or potential temporary ceasefire—will be sustainable. As a country, which had two active wars, and period in between, I can tell you that ceasefire never stops war. Never, and it didn’t stop in our case.

t’s just a temporary relief for countries to regroup, to mobilize, and to start again. 

 I, personally — being a realist — do not see, in the foreseeable future, any prospect for peace between Ukraine and Russia

Russia has declared occupied territories as part of Russia. How can they step back from that? Ukraine considers, as the whole world does, these occupied territories as part of Ukraine, and Azerbaijan considers them as part of Ukraine. 

How can they sacrifice and say, “No, it’s not part of Ukraine”? Well, if it happens, then it means that I do not understand something in international politics.

And unfortunately, unfortunately, wars end when there is a final capitulation act. As our friend mentioned from Croatia, they liberated their territory, came to their border, and stopped. And we did the same. We came to our border and stopped. That’s how wars end — this is the real world.

Relations between Azerbaijan and Georgia

efinitely relations with Georgia are of strategic importance for us. And due to the historical connections between our peoples, our mutual past of being non-free and non-independent, and also the period of independence, where, from the very beginning, Georgia and Azerbaijan demonstrated a very high level of mutual understanding, partnership, friendship, and actually managed to transform the region of the South Caucasus into a strategically important one. It was done by us — only by Georgia and Azerbaijan. Situated between two seas, the Caspian and Black Sea, we are the gateway for each other to connect with different regions and continents. So, the prospects, I’m sure, will be as bright as our present.

Frankly speaking, I was surprised when I was informed about the comments of the President of the European Commission, Madame Ursula Von Der Leyen, which she made in Uzbekistan, at the Summit of Central Asian leaders with the leadership of the European Commission, when she was talking about opening the borders between Azerbaijan and Armenia, and Armenia and Türkiye, in order to facilitate the Middle Corridor, as they call it in Europe, the Global Gateway. 

But there was not a single word about Georgia. As if Georgia did not exist. This is unfair, and the attitude towards Georgia’s internal process in the European Commission is absolutely unacceptable. This is the behavior of colonialists. They try to look at the will of the Georgian people through the principles of a colonial past. The internal issues of Georgia must be resolved by the Georgian people, not by bureaucrats from Brussels. 

So, with respect to all that, we need to strengthen our partnership between Georgia and Azerbaijan.

We, as Azerbaijan, want to have good neighborly relations with European institutions, primarily the European Commission, but not at the expense of our interests, not at the expense of their continuous attempts to interfere in our internal affairs, finance different segments of our society, brainwash our young generation, and poison the brains of some people in our region.

So, this is how we want to see the South Caucasus; the leading countries of the South Caucasus, Azerbaijan and Georgia, of course, should take the main burden for cooperation. 

But of course, Armenia, when and if agrees to amend its constitution with respect to territorial claims against Azerbaijan can join the process, and we can think about future long-term predictable situation in our region.

On the prospects of relations with Iran: amid high-level visits and the election of an Iranian president of Azerbaijani origin

We’ve been very encouraged by the election process in Iran, which led to the victory of the President and with the messages, which we receive from Iran. So we want to have good relations with all our neighbors, including Iran.

Yes, we cannot forget the tragic events, which unfortunately happened, like the terrorist attack on our embassy, but that was before President Pezeshkian came to power, and we are absolutely sure that it was an organized act of terror against Azerbaijan, and all the narratives that it had some personal grounds are absolutely groundless. 

For 40 minutes, the terrorist was trying to and actually managed to penetrate the building, and then, when he was pushed back by an armed security officer, he had already managed to kill one and severely wound two others.

And for 40 minutes, there was no police around in the city center. And the police officer, who was supposed to defend the embassy, ran away. And okay, probably he was afraid. But why didn’t he inform the police department, which is next door, that there was a terrorist attack on the embassy?

And I asked our Iranian visitors: if you were me, what would you think about that? That was very unfortunate, and you know that we pulled back completely our embassy staff. Then, I received a promise from the late Foreign Minister of Iran. It was already a long time ago — more than one year — that the perpetrator would be brought to justice and he would receive the highest possible punishment. But it didn’t happen until now. 

More than two years have passed, and immediately after the terrorist act was committed, the terrorist appeared in the media, giving interviews. 

Have you ever seen something like this, that the person who killed someone in the embassy of another state gives an interview immediately? And on the same day, he was announced to be crazy.

It overshadows relations, and our hope is that the new government will fulfill the promise of the previous government — not only the person who committed this terror act, but also those who were behind him and those who sent him to attack the Azerbaijani embassy, will be punished.

So, having said all that, at the same time, with the new administration, we have working relations. We expect them to address this issue. 

On Azerbaijan–China relations: “We are beginning a dialogue on defence cooperation”

Among our main partners, with respect to financial institutions, we also have the Asian Infrastructure Investment Bank, which was created at the initiative of China.

On the political and transportation track, yes, we see a lot of positive developments. Among them, I would name the Declaration on Strategic Partnership between China and Azerbaijan, which was adopted last year as a result of my meeting with President Xi Jinping. 

This is a very important milestone in our bilateral relations because having a strategic partnership format of cooperation with such a great country as China is, of course, of extreme importance for us. 

Having a strategic partnership with such a great power as China is, of course, extremely important for us.

We actively work now with Chinese companies. We invited them to be our strategic partners in different areas, including the green energy. I would name that their companies have been selected as our partners in the manufacturing of green public transportation vehicles. The first production is expected this year, and they are also suppliers of solar panels, which are being installed in Azerbaijan with the investments from other countries. Also we are in the phase of negotiations with some Chinese companies with respect to direct investments in green energy.

We are starting a dialogue on defense industry cooperation, and we think that that could be a very promising process because, as we already discussed, Azerbaijan is continuing to modernize its armed forces.

[…] the One Belt One Road is a project, which we have supported from the very beginning – not only publicly supported but also invested in it.

Of course, Azerbaijan is also an active country of the Global South, and China plays a very important role in the Global South. China is also a member of the Non-Aligned Movement, which we chaired for four years. So, it is a very diversified relationship – very strong and with great potential for the future.

On the Council of Europe and the European Court of Human Rights

After we joined the Council of Europe in 2001—and by the way, I was the first head of Azerbaijan’s delegation there—we started to see that, unfortunately, our just position was not supported. We saw a lot of pro-Armenian lobbyists there. And I even remember those whom we called, among ourselves, “haters of Azerbaijan,” and there are still a lot of them, even now.

Moreover, the Parliamentary Assembly of the Council of Europe decided to punish Azerbaijan for the restoration of our sovereignty. In September 2023, the separatists were totally eradicated in Karabakh. In January 2024, they decided to deprive our delegation of its voting rights just because of that. Yes, they want to pack it into a kind of human rights issue, but it’s not true.

So, it was exactly because we restored our sovereignty and territorial integrity that, several months later, they decided to deprive us of voting rights, and we decided that under these circumstances, we would just come home. Since that time, we have not participated in their sessions..

By the way, taking into account that we did not participate in the election of judges for the European Court of Human Rights, all the decisions of the European Court, for us, are invalid. This is a position we elaborated, and I just take this opportunity to announce that none of the decisions of the European Court are valid for us because we were deprived of our voting rights. 

We did not vote for these judges. We don’t know who these judges are.

So, I think the Council of Europe shot itself in the foot. They wanted to discriminate against Azerbaijan, to isolate us, but actually, they isolated themselves from the Caucasus. And look—recently, the Georgians did the same. I fully support the decision of the Georgian government to put an end to their presence there because, again, it was discrimination.

Unfortunately, this colonial thinking among some European politicians—especially those who could not or didn’t manage to be elected to the European Parliament and found their place in the Council of Europe Parliamentary Assembly—is counterproductive. I said at that time: did anyone in Azerbaijan notice that we’re no longer there? No. We can live like that.

On relations between Azerbaijan and Northern Cyprus: “Until an independent state is established, we will stand with you to the end”

[…] Azerbaijan, as you know, played an important role in the Turkish Republic of Northern Cyprus becoming an observer in the Organization of Turkic States. 

And so, you know how it happened; I don’t want to go into much detail, but we were among those who actively advocated for that. President Tatar was invited by me to attend the Informal Summit of the Organization in Shusha, and he was with us with the flag of Northern Cyprus. So, our contacts continue. You know that different representatives of civil society, the Azerbaijani government, and Parliament visit the Turkish Republic of Northern Cyprus often, and there are also visits from Northern Cyprus to Azerbaijan. 

So we are always with our brothers. Our policy is always very clear and straightforward. We don’t have any other agenda other than how we can be helpful to our brothers in Northern Cyprus, who deserve to have their own state.They deserve it by history and by their actions.

 But with respect to Azerbaijan, I think among our brothers in Northern Cyprus, there is no doubt that we will be with you until the end.

Until the independent country is established, and of course, recognized by the international community.

Ilham Aliyev and forum on new world order