"Сhange of power in Russia is inevitable" - opinion from Baku
Azerbaijani experts discuss Russia’s invasion of Ukraine
Russia‘s invasion of Ukraine continues for the eight day. In the Azerbaijani segment of social media, news coming from Ukraine and everything that happens around Russian aggression is actively discussed.
- War between Russia and Ukraine: which side is Azerbaijan on?
- How can anti-Russian sanctions affect Armenia?
JAMnews has collected the opinions of experts from Azerbaijan who discuss the possible results of the war in Ukraine on their social media accounts.
“A change of power in Russia is inevitable”
“The day has come when we can say that the main events related to Ukraine take place outside of it.
Yes, of course, the fighting continues, the result is obvious – either its continuation in a decreasing degree of intensity, or the establishment of a ceasefire …
The main and defining events take place in the economic sphere, more precisely in the process of total economic isolation of Russia. Very soon the result of this will be the deepest economic crisis, including the problem of providing food for the population.
Therefore, a change of power is inevitable. It will take place in conditions of deep political crisis and fragmentation of power structures.
During this period, the built-up system of influence around Russia will either be urgently or spontaneously dismantled, or evacuated.
With regard to the South Caucasus, we are talking primarily about the Russian military infrastructure in Armenia and in the zone of operations of peacekeeping forces.
I am sure that these topics will become relevant for us very soon”, writes former Azerbaijani Foreign Minister Tofig Zulfugarov.
“It is impossible to occupy Ukraine”
“If you look at the map without emotions, and guided only by logic, you will see clearly that it is impossible to occupy Ukraine in the classical sense of this word. Even during the Second World War, the Nazis could not completely capture Ukraine, there were areas that the Germans never reached.
After the Second World War, cruel Stalin with his NKVD could not fully control Western Ukraine until the mid-1950s.
And now it is completely impossible to occupy Ukraine, to take it under complete control – even in the most “Russian-speaking” regions of the country, the unarmed population meets the Russian occupiers with hatred and opposes them.
Even if, God forbid, Russians occupy Kyiv, this does not mean defeat in the war or its end. Western Ukraine is not yet fully involved in the war, which means that Russia will never be able to achieve the maximum goals that it has set for itself.
But I must say that Ukraine will not be able to win in the classical sense either. A stalemate has been created. And this means that it is vital to find a basis for mutual concessions”, Natig Jafarli, one of the leaders of the Republican Alternative opposition party, expressed his opinion.
“Everyone knows how the war against an entire nation will end”
“From a military point of view, the participation of a group called the army of Belarus in the occupation of Ukraine does not make any sense.
It’s more like “extras” in movies. The command of the Russian troops, which has already attracted to the war most of the troops assembled in advance on the borders of Ukraine, needs new units that have not yet suffered from losses.
But the combat capabilities of the agroleader raise great doubts, one thing is known for sure that in this regard they are much inferior to the Russian army. In other words, no one will be surprised if the Ukrainian army destroys the army of Belarus in the first battle. In the direction of Chernigov, Ukrainian forces are successfully stopping the advance of countless Russian military equipment.
The war is dragging on and the Putin regime is getting even more aggressive.
In the early days, Russia tried to wage a relatively “neat” war. But the situation in “Russian-speaking” Kharkiv shows that the ‘bunker dweller’ has thrown aside all his exact calculations and decided to achieve a result by all means necessary.
One of the reasons for this is the pictures that the whole world sees from the already occupied Kupyansk and Berdyansk. Local residents sing the national anthem of Ukraine, gathered in the squares, stand as a living wall in front of Russian tanks. All this violates the psyche, the mental balance of the Russian Fuhrer.
As you can see, the “great strategist” Putin was able to create hatred for Russia even in the east of Ukraine. This is a lot. The spirit of Stepan Bandera is satisfied.
The war has already taken the form of open aggression against the Ukrainian people. But the physical occupation of cities in this case is not of decisive importance. Everyone knows how the war against an entire nation will end”, political scientist Shahin Jafarli wrote.
“The result of the negotiations is not worth waiting for”
“A group of Russian oligarchs and businessmen said they did not understand the sanctions against them. For example, the large Russian company Severstal exported metal to the EU countries for a total amount of about four dollars a year. The European Union has included this company and its head Alexei Mordashov in the sanctions list.
The company found itself in a very difficult situation, in a hurry looking for new markets, hoping for Asia. But it is very problematic to transfer a huge amount of metal to other markets in a short time. Mordashov, who lost his head from what happened, noted that he had been in business all his life, was not interested in politics and did not understand the sanctions against himself. But these are all excuses. Part of his income goes to the state budget of Russia, and the same funds are currently being used to purchase military equipment involved in the occupation of Ukraine.
Soloviev, one of the main media mouthpieces of the Kremlin, is also dissatisfied. He wonders why sanctions have been imposed on him and why he cannot travel to Europe. Although this man has been humiliating Ukraine for many years in his television and radio programs, supporting separatism, just like his boss from the Kremlin, he insists that such a state as Ukraine does not exist. And now he wants to distance himself from the ongoing events. The reason is known. Soloviev has expensive real estate in Italy, possibly accounts in European banks, and he is afraid to lose it all.
And the Kremlin, on the one hand, participates in negotiations with Kiev, and on the other, it continues the occupation. But in such circumstances, the results of the negotiations should not be expected. The Kremlin should have declared a ceasefire, at least for the duration of the negotiations. What we see contradicts the very philosophy of negotiations.
Why is the Kremlin doing this? Putin, continuing negotiations, but at the same time not ceasing to end the occupation and wants to demonstrate readiness for the negotiation process. At the same time, he demands that Ukraine lay down its arms, recognize Crimea as Russian and accept a neutral status. Who would agree to this?
Meanwhile, even China is concerned about what is happening in Ukraine. Whatever ally of Russia it may be, Beijing does not want to destabilize the situation in Europe, because it is one of the biggest markets for its export. A war in the center of the continent is contrary to China’s interests.
In addition, China has very good economic ties with Ukraine. Moscow’s actions threaten Beijing’s plans to import agricultural products from Ukraine. Despite all this, Beijing does not yet want to interfere with Moscow and is simply watching what is happening from the sidelines”, said Elkhan Shahinoglu, a political scientist and head of the Atlas analytical center.