Opinion: 'Moscow’s main fear is that Armenia will choose European Union'
Opinion on Russia’s demand for a referendum in Armenia
In recent days, Russia‘s demand for Armenia to hold a referendum on whether the country should remain in the Russian-led Eurasian Economic Union (EAEU) or choose the European Union has increasingly been seen as a threat. Experts from the “Armenian Council” think tank made the assessment in an article.
Russia has long demanded such a referendum, including at the highest level. But there are now threats to initiate proceedings concerning Armenia’s membership of the EAEU. Decisions within the bloc require consensus, and Yerevan has the right to veto them.
“Russia’s main phobia is that the situation will deteriorate over time, leading the Armenian people to choose the European Union,” the authors argue.
They stress that this is not only Russia’s “main phobia”, but also its “main misconception”. The analysts believe that even the “economic pressure and blackmail” that Russia began applying to Armenia in May, during the pre-election period, have not changed Armenian public opinion. They cite the results of the parliamentary election on 7 June as evidence: Armenia’s ruling party won, rather than pro-Russian forces.
Ahead of Armenia’s parliamentary election, Russia imposed restrictions on imports of Armenian agricultural products. It also banned imports of flowers, Jermuk mineral water, certain alcoholic drinks and fish products. The authorities justified the measures by citing failures to meet required quality standards. However, Armenian experts and officials viewed the issue in the context of the election campaign. They therefore expected the pressure to end after the election.
But that did not happen. Moreover, Russia introduced new restrictions after the election.
At the same time, in early June, four EAEU member states called on Armenian authorities to hold a referendum as soon as possible on choosing between the Eurasian bloc and the EU. Yerevan responded that there were currently no grounds for such a vote because Armenia’s European integration process had not yet reached the stage at which citizens could make a choice. Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan has repeatedly said that Armenia should first obtain EU candidate status or, at the very least, put the issue on the agenda.
However, Moscow continues to insist. Russian Deputy Foreign Minister Mikhail Galuzin said the EAEU expects Armenia to hold a referendum by December. Otherwise, the bloc’s leaders would “take this fact into account when determining appropriate further joint steps”. He said a report on the possible consequences of suspending the EAEU Treaty in relation to Armenia would be discussed at the December meeting of the Supreme Eurasian Economic Council.
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Armenia’s prime minister spoke about a referendum on EU membership
“No one in Armenia has ever talked about holding a referendum on EAEU membership or an alternative in the form of the EU.
On 9 January 2025, when the Armenian government discussed and approved a bill to launch the EU accession process, Prime Minister Pashinyan said:
“Armenia can begin the process of joining the EU only if a certain number of referendum participants vote ‘yes’ in accordance with the procedure established by the Constitution.”
Senior Armenian officials later repeated this point on various occasions.
The key point is that Armenia will hold a referendum on joining the European Union, not on whether to remain in or leave the EAEU.
This fundamental difference significantly changes the forecasts for the expected outcome. However, if Armenia votes to join the EU, it will inevitably leave the EAEU at some stage of the subsequent process.”
Russia is pushing for a referendum on a different question
“Armenia’s willingness to hold a referendum on EU membership is fundamentally different from what Moscow wants to impose.
Russia is clearly manipulating the situation by demanding a referendum on the EAEU now, when Armenia is at least a decade away from joining the EU.
We need to understand the real reason for this urgency.
The Kremlin understands that if EU membership becomes a genuine possibility, no rational society could vote against it.
Therefore, to keep Armenia in the EAEU and have a chance of stopping its move towards the EU, a referendum must take place as soon as possible, while the prospect of EU membership remains unclear and uncertain.”
Moscow is trying to “beat” Europe by exploiting Armenian businesses’ dependence
“The EAEU mechanisms currently work in favour of Armenian businesses, creating influence and dependence.
At the same time, Armenia is steadily diversifying its economy, reducing that influence and dependence.
The question of whether to remain in the EAEU directly affects many companies with specific interests in Russia. By contrast, EU membership remains a more abstract issue for them for now.
Moscow does not expect to “beat” Europe in economic competition over the next few years or even decades and offer Armenia more attractive conditions. It therefore believes it still has an opportunity to influence the situation now. That is why it is in such a hurry.”
Opinion on Russia’s demand for a referendum in Armenia
