'Moscow will only push Armenia out of Russian-led blocs': Reaction to Russia's foreign intelligence claim
SVR warns of economic crisis in Armenia as Yerevan pushes back
“Brussels understands that Armenia will face a severe economic crisis if Yerevan leaves the Eurasian Economic Union,” Russia’s Foreign Intelligence Service said on the previous day.
The Eurasian Economic Union (EAEU) is a Russia-led economic bloc. Its members are Russia, Armenia, Kazakhstan, Belarus and Kyrgyzstan.
“Brussels should not expect the EAEU countries to keep Yerevan’s political crew afloat or bankroll its marathon swim toward the European Union,” the SVR said.
In Armenia, observers noted that the statement followed a phone call between Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan and Russian President Vladimir Putin on July 27. Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov said one of the main topics was a referendum in Armenia on European Union membership or continued participation in the EAEU.
“We stressed the need for Armenia to hold a referendum as soon as possible so Armenians can decide which direction they want to take,” Peskov said.
The Kremlin’s readout of the call did not mention Pashinyan’s response. However, the Armenian prime minister’s office said he told Putin:
“Holding such a referendum would only become possible after Armenia submits an official application to join the European Union and the issue takes on practical significance.”
The Armenian authorities have given Russia the same response on several previous occasions.
Local analysts viewed the Kremlin’s remarks and the SVR statement as another attempt to pressure Armenia.
In their view, the crisis in bilateral relations continues, and “there is still no solution in sight”. They also questioned why Russia’s Foreign Intelligence Service, rather than the EAEU itself, had spoken on the bloc’s behalf.
The Armenian prime minister’s office said that, during the call, “Pashinyan stressed that restrictions on exports of Armenian-made goods to the Russian market violate the legal framework governing Armenia-Russia relations and Eurasian Economic Union regulations. He asked Russia to take steps to resolve the issue.”
Pashinyan appears to have called Putin primarily over Russia’s ban on imports of numerous Armenian food products and other goods. Russia introduced the restrictions at the end of May.
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Statement by Russia’s Foreign Intelligence Service
The SVR titled its statement, “The EU Lures Armenia but Cannot Help It.” The statement argues that Armenia would face a severe economic crisis if it left the EAEU.
“Armenia will lose the income it currently receives from Eurasian integration. The remaining EAEU members will not bankroll the Armenian authorities as they row toward the European Union. EU institutions acknowledge that the bloc’s worsening economic problems, driven by anti-Russian sanctions and what they describe as Brussels’ obsession with supporting the war in Ukraine, will leave the EU unable to offset Armenia’s multi-billion-dollar losses. Several European countries have already told EU leaders they are unwilling to open their markets to Armenian goods at the expense of domestic producers.”
Russia’s foreign intelligence service also claims the EU will continue to assure Yerevan of its unwavering support.
“The EU plans to explain the lack of tangible assistance by arguing that accession depends entirely on Yerevan and on its own ‘progress’ toward European integration.”
According to the SVR, the EU has already presented Pashinyan’s government with the following demands:
- reduce the presence of Russian businesses in strategic sectors;
- sever humanitarian ties with Russia;
- suppress domestic opponents who resist those policies.
The statement adds that the EU will encourage Armenia by “holding out the prospect of visa liberalisation for Armenian citizens and promising that, at some distant point in the future, Armenia will become a ‘prosperous crossroads of peace.’
How Armenians View European Integration: Poll Results
Against the backdrop of Russia’s call for Armenia to hold a referendum on whether to remain in the EAEU or pursue EU membership, local broadcaster Factor TV conducted an online poll. Participants answered the following question: “If a referendum on choosing between the EAEU and the EU were held this Sunday, which would you vote for?”
According to the broadcaster, more than 3,300 people have already taken part in the poll. The results are as follows:
- 74% said they would vote for EU membership;
- 21% said they would prefer Armenia to remain in the EAEU;
- 5% said they were undecided.
Reactions
Political analyst Samvel Melkisetian said:
“Statements like these from Moscow are nothing new. They fit a long-established Russian pattern. The aim is to show both domestic and international audiences that Russia remains actively involved in regional developments. They also seek to expose what they portray as the EU’s and the West’s ‘hidden mechanisms’ of harmful influence across the post-Soviet region.”
He also noted that Moscow’s rhetoric often portrays Armenia not as a sovereign state making its own decisions, but as an object of external influence.
Political analyst Hovsep Khurshudyan said:
“What does Russia’s Foreign Intelligence Service have to do with the EAEU that allows it to speak on behalf of the bloc’s member states? Has the SVR become the press office for the EAEU or its members?”
Khurshudyan also questioned Russia’s intelligence service:
“How can Brussels be accused of driving Armenia’s economy into crisis when it is Brussels that is compensating for the losses caused by the sanctions Russia has imposed?”
He was referring to EU support programmes launched after Russia restricted imports of Armenian goods.
Khurshudyan argues that, in the end, Russia’s actions will only accelerate:
- Armenia’s withdrawal from Russian-led integration structures, including the EAEU and the Collective Security Treaty Organization;
- the withdrawal of Russian border guards from Armenia’s borders with Iran and Turkey;
- the termination of the concession agreement under which a Russian company operates Armenia’s railways.
Khurshudyan believes Armenia still has room to take further steps, while Russia has already exhausted most of its leverage.
SVR warns of economic crisis in Armenia as Yerevan pushes back
