Early change of power predicted in South Ossetia
South Ossetian President Alan Gagloev is facing growing speculation that he may leave office before the end of his term. Several local analysts predict that he could step down voluntarily as early as June.
Although Gagloev still has a year remaining in his presidential term, critics argue that a series of socio-economic and political failures have left him with little chance of remaining in office until the end of his mandate.
Speculation about an early departure by South Ossetian President Alan Gagloev intensified after the swift appointment of prominent Russian official Marat Kambolov as a presidential adviser. Gagloev signed the decree on 27 May, a move that many observers interpreted as effectively handing Kambolov a key role in governing the region.
Kambolov arrived in Tskhinvali after a lengthy career in the Russian government. Over the years, he held senior positions in the Federal Antimonopoly Service, the Ministry for Nationalities and Regional Policy, the Ministry of Industry, Science and Technology, and the Federal Agency for Science and Innovation.
According to local Telegram channels, Kambolov will initially oversee implementation of the agreement on deepening allied cooperation between South Ossetia and Russia in the economic and social spheres, which the two sides signed on 9 May.
“His responsibilities will also include coordinating joint projects aimed at advancing integration, investment cooperation and infrastructure development,” local Telegram channels reported.
Analysts suggest that the government could dissolve the cabinet before 20 June and nominate Kambolov for the post of prime minister. In their view, the Kremlin has effectively sent Gagloev’s replacement.
According to political strategist David Gazzati, “Alan Gagloev and his team have already lost their battle to remain in power in South Ossetia and serve out their term”, because they have seriously damaged their standing with Russia.
Gazzati claims that Alan Gagloev attempted to mislead the Russian leadership by presenting inflated figures on the implementation of South Ossetia’s Socio-Economic Development Investment Programme, which Moscow finances through the Russian federal budget.
“The figures Alan Gagloev presented to Vladimir Putin turned out to be fabricated and inflated. In reality, they misled the Russian president. But it appears that the real figures reached Russian law enforcement agencies, and Alan Gagloev was summoned to Moscow again so that everything could be clarified. The Russian side has carried out extensive and difficult work, and we will soon see the results.”
Gazzati believes that Gagloev’s early departure and the beginning of a new chapter in South Ossetian politics are approaching.
“The weakest team in the history of modern South Ossetia is coming to the end of its time in office,” said the political strategist, who served as a state adviser under former South Ossetian president Anatoly Bibilov.
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Possible early change of power in South Ossetia
