Poll: 82% believe both sides must acknowledge mistakes to improve Georgian-Abkhaz and Georgian-Ossetian relations
Georgian-Abkhaz and Georgian-Ossetian relations
If Russia’s war against Ukraine ends in failure, it will have a positive impact on Georgian-Abkhaz and Georgian-Ossetian relations. This is one of the findings of a new study by the Caucasus Research Resource Center on conflicts in Georgia.
The study also states that Georgia’s integration into the European Union and NATO would contribute far more to conflict resolution than political rapprochement with Russia.
- “Approval of Lavrov’s statement suggests that ‘Georgian Dream’ may be viewing the conflicts in the same way as Russia”
- Moscow says it is ready to “help Georgia in its dialogue with Abkhazia and South Ossetia”
- Abkhaz Foreign Ministry: “If Georgia apologizes, it could be the first step toward reconciliation”
The study examines topics such as the role of time in conflict resolution, responsible institutions, factors that hinder or facilitate conflict resolution, territorial arrangement scenarios, and opportunities for coexistence and dialogue. It also analyzes the alienation between Georgians and Abkhazians, as well as Georgians and Ossetians.
We summarized the key findings of the study in this article.
The study, “Conflicts in Georgia: Perceptions, Attitudes, and Expectations”, was commissioned by the Institute for Nationalism and Conflict Studies, the Levan Mikeladze Foundation, and the Caucasian House and conducted by the Caucasus Research Resource Center in 2024.
Around 2,000 people across Georgia participated in the survey. The fieldwork was carried out between 29 May and 2 July 2024, with a margin of error of 1%.
Impact of relations with NATO, EU, and Russia on conflicts in Georgia
61% of respondents believe that Georgia’s integration into the European Union would have a positive impact on Georgian-Abkhaz and Georgian-Ossetian relations. Additionally, 56% think that NATO membership would also bring positive consequences in this regard.
When it comes to Georgia’s rapprochement with Russia, only 31% of respondents believe it would have positive consequences.
The study also examines the potential impact of different outcomes of the Russia-Ukraine war on conflicts in Georgia.
42% of respondents believe that if Russia loses the war, it will have only a positive effect on Georgian-Abkhaz and Georgian-Ossetian relations. Among those displaced by conflicts, this figure is even higher—57%.
Meanwhile, 54% of respondents think that a Russian victory in the war would negatively affect Georgian-Abkhaz and Georgian-Ossetian relations. Among displaced persons, this figure rises to 63%.
Prospects for restoring Georgian-Abkhaz and Georgian-Ossetian relations
International experience shows that conflict resolution primarily requires rebuilding relationships and trust between the parties. In interviews with JAMnews, conflict experts have consistently emphasized that restoring trust should come first—only then can discussions about territorial reintegration take place.
83% of respondents believe that Georgians, Abkhazians, and Ossetians can peacefully coexist within a single state.
A similar majority (83–84%) agrees that dialogue between Georgians and Abkhazians, as well as between Georgians and Ossetians, is necessary and should begin immediately.
When asked what prevents this dialogue from starting, 69% pointed to Russian policy as the main obstacle.
Respondents were also asked about the impact of time on conflict resolution.
When presented with the statement, “Over time, the prospects for reconciliation between Georgians and Abkhazians, as well as Georgians and Ossetians, are decreasing,” more than half agreed (14% strongly agree, 37% agree), while 17% disagreed and 6% strongly disagreed.
38% of respondents believe that, over time, displaced persons from Abkhazia and the Tskhinvali region are losing the desire to return to their homes permanently.
Restoring territorial integrity, territorial governance scenarios, and conflict resolution remain key topics in public opinion surveys conducted in Georgia.
Ahead of the 2024 parliamentary elections, the ruling Georgian Dream party declared that restoring Georgia’s territorial integrity was its top priority. The party told voters that it needed a constitutional majority, arguing that “events around Georgia are unfolding rapidly, and at any moment, conditions may arise for the peaceful restoration of territorial integrity.” This message was repeatedly emphasized by Bidzina Ivanishvili, the honorary chairman of Georgian Dreamand the country’s de facto ruler, during meetings with the public.
The study participants were also asked about possible paths and scenarios for restoring territorial integrity. (It should be emphasized that this study has nothing to do with the promises of “Georgian Dream.” It was conducted before preparations for Georgia’s parliamentary elections began.)
When asked how they envision Georgia regaining control over the occupied regions, a third of respondents said they believe the best way to achieve this is through negotiations with Abkhazians and Ossetians. Only one percent considered military action an effective solution.
The survey results show that 75% of respondents would agree to Abkhazia and Tskhinvali being part of Georgia without autonomy. Meanwhile, 47% said they would not oppose granting these regions autonomy.
At the same time, more than half of those surveyed stated that the creation of a confederation consisting of Abkhazia, the Tskhinvali region on one side, and Georgia on the other would be unacceptable.
A total of 85% of respondents said it was unacceptable for Abkhazia and Tskhinvali to be independent states.
An overwhelming majority—91%—stated that the incorporation of Abkhazia and the Tskhinvali region into Russia was unacceptable.
According to most respondents, dialogue with Abkhazians and Ossetians about their future status could only begin if displaced persons return with full security guarantees (53%) and if Russian troops completely withdraw from the territory (43%).
Recognition of past mistakes and starting new relations
The majority of respondents (33% “agree,” 40% “rather agree than disagree”) stated that both sides are victims in these conflicts. Residents of Abkhazia and Tskhinvali are just as much victims as Georgians.
A total of 82% said that to improve relations, both sides must acknowledge the mistakes made in the past.
Meanwhile, 80% believe that relations should start with a clean slate.
Another 80% of respondents stated that involving internally displaced persons in peacebuilding processes would positively impact Georgian-Abkhaz and Georgian-Ossetian relations.
The majority of respondents (24%) believe that resolving the conflicts will take more than ten years, while 10% think they will never be resolved. However, when asked how long the process would take if Russia did not obstruct it, 28% of respondents said it would take 1-5 years.
Socio-cultural alienation
The study also seeks to determine whether any forms of connection exist between Georgians and Abkhazians, as well as Georgians and Ossetians—whether they have the opportunity to communicate in person, by phone, or online.
Findings suggest that the process of alienation has advanced significantly. More than 80% of respondents stated that they have no contact with people living in the conflict regions.
For instance, 82% of those surveyed said they do not know anyone currently residing in Abkhazia (excluding residents of the Gali district). A total of 89% had never met a person living in Abkhazia, while 92–93% reported having no contact with them whatsoever—not by phone, nor online.
Connections with Tskhinvali have also been largely severed. A total of 87% said they do not know anyone living in Tskhinvali (excluding residents of Akhalgori). Meanwhile, 94% stated they had never personally met someone from Tskhinvali, and 95% had no contact with them at all—neither online nor by phone.
