"Pashinyan's political future depends on relations with Azerbaijan": Opinion from Baku
Zardusht Alizade discusses Armenia-Azerbaijan relations
In recent months, the threat of war in our region and the dynamics of various geopolitical processes have fluctuated. During the BRICS summit, a meeting took place between Azerbaijani President Ilham Aliyev and Armenian Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan. In the course of recent contacts, foreign ministers were instructed to continue bilateral negotiations. At the same time, France’s provocative attempts against Azerbaijan have failed.
- Georgian diplomats, universities, and schools launch mass strikes amid ongoing protests
- Russia says door open for Armenia’s return to CSTO
- Sinking Russia and Azerbaijanis struggling to stay afloat
Political scientist Zardusht Alizade spoke with Azpost.info about these issues.
On latest developments in Azerbaijan-Armenia peace talks
“The parties have stated that negotiations will resume in December. It is also known that there are disagreements on three issues.
The first is amending Armenia’s constitution to remove references to the Declaration of Independence previously adopted by Armenia. The second is the removal of European observers from the border zone. The third issue concerns the resumption of activity along the border zone. Agreements can potentially be reached on each of these issues.
Armenia is now trying to postpone discussions related to the constitution until the parliamentary elections in 2026. At that stage, references to the Declaration of Independence regarding the unification of ‘Nagorno-Karabakh’ with Armenia, based on decisions by the Constitutional Court or some intermediary court, could be removed.
The European Union monitoring mission must be removed from the South Caucasus. At the very least, we can request that they return to their respective countries. It has also been noted that this issue could be resolved once all matters in the delimitation and demarcation process have been agreed upon.”
The implementation of delimitation depends on the will of the parties. I believe there are no political obstacles to this. At that time, the border between Armenia and Azerbaijan was clearly defined. Currently, the process of determining these borders has begun, and maps are available in certain structures. This sensitive issue could be resolved either in December this year or next year.”
On tensions between Azerbaijan and France
“In the past, Russia had a different approach to these issues. Now it has realized that taking a position against Azerbaijan in the Caucasus contradicts its own state interests.
Today, our northern neighbor is trying to establish good relations with Azerbaijan. The provocative role Russia used to play is now being taken over by France. France believes that exerting pressure on Azerbaijan requires adopting a biased stance, forcing Azerbaijan to take certain actions. This is a very misguided position. Moreover, such an approach, as seen in other countries, like the Netherlands, will also lead to financial losses for France.
… Azerbaijan is not the initiator of the crisis with France. We are a small country, and we know our limits. France has aircraft carriers, it is a producer of nuclear energy, it sells nuclear energy to other countries, it has advanced technologies, a large population, and a long history. It is a member of the European Union, one of the leading countries in the world, with a large army, and so on.
We are much smaller in comparison. We never interfere in France’s internal affairs. It is France that has come from Western Europe to the Caucasus and behaves arrogantly. Naturally, the Azerbaijani state does not accept this. They interfere in our affairs, so we raise the issue of New Caledonia, thousands of kilometers away. If France sits in a glass house and throws stones at others, it must realize that someone passing by may throw a stone at its glass house, and it will shatter.”
“Since gaining independence, Azerbaijan has sought to establish good relations with France in all areas. However, the French authorities fail to understand this. It seems that biased traditions toward the Muslim and Turkic world persist there.
Azerbaijan’s independence is recognized globally, and while it may not possess aircraft carriers or nuclear energy, it has a voice on the world political stage. What does the French parliament’s statement on recognizing the independence of ‘Artsakh’ mean? It can be considered a step equivalent to declaring war. With this statement, France denies Azerbaijan’s territorial integrity.
When such actions are taken against Azerbaijan, our diplomats begin to raise issues about New Caledonia and Corsica on international platforms. Similarly, when the Netherlands discusses the independence of ‘Artsakh,’ we bring up their overseas colonial territories. Azerbaijan has a response for those countries that disregard our interests and treat us with contempt.”
On resolving Armenia-Azerbaijan conflict without third countries
“If Azerbaijan and Armenia can resolve and regulate issues between themselves without the involvement of any third country, there will be no need for any supranational entity or organization.
These two neighboring states and peoples have lived together in the past. Let’s acknowledge that their perspectives are very close to one another.”
“Armenia has become almost a province of Russia. Now it is trying to reclaim its political independence. They are attempting to free themselves from Russian influence, but having grown so accustomed to living under external influence, they have now turned into a tool for France. This is a very harmful and misguided tradition.
The Armenian authorities must prioritize the interests of their state and people. Above all, they should establish good relations with their immediate neighbors. The country’s security does not depend on states located 3,000, 5,000, or 10,000 kilometers away. It depends on its closest neighbors—Turkey, Georgia, Azerbaijan, and Iran.”
On Pashinyan’s claim that peace agreement could be signed by year’s end
“Pashinyan’s statement [that a peace agreement could be signed by the end of the year] is not the result of the support he received from France. This view was expressed in the interests of the entire Armenian people. The people of Armenia have started to realize that a policy of hostility and aggression toward their closest neighbor, Azerbaijan, is not the right path. They are demanding that Pashinyan restore normal neighborly relations with Azerbaijan and Turkey.
As for Pashinyan’s political future, it largely depends on relations with Azerbaijan. You know that Nikol Pashinyan, who was once elected prime minister with the support of 75-80% of voters, now enjoys the support of only 16-17% of the population. Pashinyan won the parliamentary elections held in 2021, and the next elections are scheduled for 2026.”
“When Pashinyan was first elected, public dissatisfaction with Robert Kocharyan and Serzh Sargsyan was extremely high. Now, Pashinyan’s government has faced numerous defeats and losses, despite some successes. He needs a new success story. What could this success story look like under today’s conditions? Karabakh has been lost, the alliance with Russia has been lost… A new success story could involve peace for the Armenian people, who are tired of war.
This means a peace agreement with Azerbaijan, normalization of relations with Turkey, opening of borders, the establishment of embassies, initiation of trade relations, and restoration of connectivity. As a guarantee of security, Pashinyan needs to show the Armenian people that ‘we no longer have eternal, age-old enemies in the Turks; we have neighbors.’ This could ensure Pashinyan a 100% victory in the next elections.”
