"There is a civil war going on inside the Georgian Dream party." Political analyst commentary

The return of Bidzina Ivanishvili

Nodar Kharshiladze, founder of the Georgian Center for Strategic and International Studies, believes that the reason for Georgian Dream founder Bidzina Ivanishvili’s return to politics is a “civil war” going on inside the ruling Georgian Dream party. There is a clash of financial and other interests between several factions in the party, the political scientist said on the program “Resume”.

Georgian Dream founder Bidzina Ivanishvili has returned to politics for the third time. He was elected honorary chairman at the congress of the Georgian Dream party.

Ivanishvili said he is returning because Georgia is facing major geopolitical challenges.

Ivanishvili also pointed out that there is a danger of confrontation within the ruling team itself.

Nodar Kharshiladze: Georgian Dream has been in power for more than 11 years. It is a very strong and big party, with huge money, strong structure and resources. All parties, the longer they stay in power, the more problems arise inside.

Today the Georgian Dream has a “3+1” configuration. There is one, quite independent and autonomous, center of power. This is [Tbilisi Mayor] Kakha Kaladze with his city hall. He is the most popular figure of the Georgian Dream. Even if someone needs to get rid of him, it would be difficult because he has a legal mandate. It would be difficult to weaken him without eliminating him.

Figure number two is [Georgian Dream Chairman] Irakli Kobakhidze, who is the strongest expert in the Georgian Dream electoral system. Wake him up at night and he will tell you in which district of Lanchkhuti how many people will vote for whom. He has people in his team who are responsible for attracting votes. He has also been in direct communication with Ivanishvili for the last two years.

The third is Prime Minister [Irakli Garibashvili], who has become very influential. He is in charge of some ministries. He has his own people in the defense ministry and the financial bloc.

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If Kaladze is the most popular, Kobakhidze is the most unpopular. Garibashvili has standing only in the Georgian Dream, Kaladze has standing in the middle class.

“Plus One” is the “clan” that Bidzina Ivanishvili left behind: the Minister of Internal Affairs, the head of the Security Service, the Security Council of Georgia, members of Bidzina Ivanishvili’s personal security – Vakhtang Gomelauri, Anzor Chubinidze, who was Ivanishvili’s head of security, and although he was in the shadows, he is a very important person. And, of course, [head of the Georgian Security Service Grigol] Liluashvili, to whom the Georgian Security Council reports. That’s the way it is.

This is already an internal civil war. It started the same way in the National Movement [the opposition party created by Mikheil Saakashvili]. Before the previous elections, he realized that this confrontation would be costly. The question is whether he will keep all three or sacrifice one of them.

We know very well that Ivanishvili does not like direct responsibility. For him real power is hidden power. So he was very comfortable where he was. And what he told us is not quite right.

Today Georgian Dream is not a 100-mandate winner even with a weak opposition. People simply will not vote. The important factor is that the opposition does not pose such a threat that Ivanishvili’s return becomes necessary.

Perhaps Ivanishvili thought that unlike the previous elections, when he always had a “face”; now Georgian Dream has no face, and this face could be Ivanishvili. If you consider this as one of the arguments, it is a mistake. Ivanishvili long ago squandered his political capital.