"Negotiations between NK and Baku without a mediator are unrealistic." Opinion from Yerevan
Samvel Babayan on direct negotiations with Baku
Political scientist Tigran Grigoryan considers the proposal of the former Minister of Defense of the unrecognized NKR Samvel Babayan to negotiate with Azerbaijan without intermediaries “dangerous and unrealistic.”
A day ago, Babayan stated that he was in favor of direct negotiations with Baku. He announced that, unlike the government and the opposition, he was ready to take responsibility and prepare a document about what these negotiations would be about.
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Samvel Babayan: “We have been negotiating for 30 years and achieved nothing”
Samvel Babayan, a former commander of the defense army and secretary of the Security Council, now leads the United Motherland party. In an interview with Radio Azatutyun (Radio Liberty), he expressed the following thoughts:
- “I don’t think Azerbaijan is against any negotiations. Recently, negotiations were to be held on the proposal of the United States, the Artsakh side refused. But these negotiations are taking place one way or another.
- If we do not follow this path and there is no mutual trust… We have been negotiating for 30 years and have not achieved anything, I assure you that we will negotiate for another 30 years and will not achieve anything either. No matter how much Azerbaijan strives to achieve quick results, to withdraw Russia from here, it will not achieve this main goal if we do not have mutual trust.
- First of all, we need to prepare a document on which points we will negotiate. It is necessary to inspire confidence in each other, only after that you can move on to other issues.
- The political forces of Artsakh should prepare a document and offer it to Azerbaijan. After studying this document, Azerbaijan should offer its own version, where there will be nothing about the status, future, the Karabakh issue, etc. I use the phrase “mutual trust” for a reason. First, steps are needed to build trust in each other, and then we will begin a new phase, the second. And the issue of status and all the rest will already be discussed.
- Let’s give them the opportunity to respond in writing, and present to the mediators, the superpowers who are interested in the region, that we are ready for these steps, while Azerbaijan is not going to do anything, is not taking any steps. We do nothing and say: they demand this. Did they present something to us in writing? I did not see”.
A comment
Political scientist Tigran Grigoryan believes that Azerbaijan is interested in direct negotiations, as this will allow Baku to present the negotiations as “an internal process with an integration agenda.”
“I don’t know how appropriate it is to talk about direct negotiations, especially on political issues. If we are talking about some technical, infrastructural issues, then they can still be discussed. But when it comes to some serious decisions, I don’t think that direct negotiations are in the interests of the Artsakh side,” he told JAMnews.
With the current balance of power, it is unrealistic to talk about negotiations without intermediaries:
“It’s hard to imagine how Artsakh can negotiate with Azerbaijan without intermediaries, so that it doesn’t turn into a process of gradual implementation of Azerbaijan’s demands.”
As for the discussion of non-political issues, Grigoryan recalled that in the past such negotiations were conducted through the mediation of the Russian side.
“A more reasonable position is that there should be an international format, international mediation. This position is also shared, I will not say the main mediators dealing with this issue, at least the American side.”
Grigoryan called the allegations that the Karabakh side refused to negotiate with the mediation of the Americans a delusion, “Stepanakert did not refuse these negotiations.” According to him, in recent months there have been no negotiations at all, even on humanitarian issues.
The political scientist does not consider Samvel Babayan’s proposal to create an atmosphere of mutual trust new. He says that in recent months he has voiced this idea more than once. Meanwhile, he considers it important whether Baku is ready to start a constructive dialogue with the Armenians of NK:
“Azerbaijan’s position is very clear and maximalist. Baku is not going to conduct substantive negotiations with Stepanakert and only puts forward ultimatums, emphasizing that it is not going to discuss anything other than the integration agenda with representatives of Nagorno-Karabakh.”
Grigoryan recalls that there is a struggle for power in Nagorno-Karabakh, and Babayan’s statements should be assessed in this context as well. At the same time, the political scientist suggests thinking about what process will begin if Samvel Babayan takes responsibility for the negotiation process:
“A few months ago, when Ruben Vardanyan was appointed State Minister of Artsakh, and he was not a negotiator, at some point Azerbaijan put forward a condition: Vardanyan must be fired and must leave Artsakh. I don’t know whether there will be such conditions in the event of Babayan’s actual coming to power or not, but this cannot be ruled out either.”
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Samvel Babayan on direct negotiations with Baku
