Russia is not interested in a resolution of the conflict. Comment from Baku
Expert on Russian policy in the region
To fully resolve the Karabakh conflict, Azerbaijan needs first to resolve five main issues, political scientist Elkhan Shahinoglu believes. In three years Azerbaijan will insist on the withdrawal of Russian peacekeepers from Karabakh, but Russia is not interested in this. “Through the mouth of the head of state television, official Baku said something that it cannot talk about openly,” the expert maintained.
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EShahinoglu, head of the Azerbaijani independent analytical center Atlas, commented on the current situation in the region and ways out of it.
Five questions to solve the Karabakh problem
“I will say right away that for the resolution of the Karabakh conflict, five main issues need to be addressed:
- Disarmament of the separatists in the part of Karabakh where Russian peacekeepers are stationed.
- The liberation of the rest of Karabakh where an unrecognized regime still operates, calling itself the “Nagorno-Karabakh Republic”.
- Azerbaijani laws must operate in Khankendi (Stepanakert).
- Azerbaijan must itself control the road, built by itself, which connects Khankendi with Armenia.
- Withdrawal of Russian troops from Karabakh.
The withdrawal of the Armenian armed forces from Karabakh is noted in the tripartite statement dated November 10, 2020. But it must be taken into account that local residents, the Armenian population of Karabakh, are also armed. And they, too, should be disarmed. But the peacekeepers will not do this, and as we have repeatedly witnessed, the Russian troops themselves are interested in arming the Karabakh Armenians,” said Shahinoglu.
“Meetings mediated by Russia will not lead to any result”
According to the expert, the main obstacle to peace between Azerbaijan and Armenia is Russia. The Kremlin does not want to leave the region, he believes.
“All meetings at the highest level mediated by Russia will not lead to any result. Like the last one in Sochi. The futility of this summit was known even before it began.
Russia wants to extend the mission of its peacekeeping forces in Karabakh for another 5-10 years and freeze this process, creating a full-fledged military base there.
All this is contrary to the national and state interests of Azerbaijan,” Shahinoglu added.
“It will happen sooner or later”
Speaking of the reasons for the current stalemate in the part of Karabakh where Russian peacekeepers are temporarily stationed, Shahinoglu cites pressure from Russia towards the end of the second Karabakh war:
“It was the pressure of Russia towards the end of the second Karabakh war that led to the situation that we have now. After the liberation of Shushi, the Azerbaijani army was on the outskirts of Khankendi.
Yes, we could later be condemned for ethnic cleansing in Karabakh, but to be honest, in those days there was no longer a population in Khankendi, and there could not have been any “massacre”.
After the liberation of all of Karabakh, of course, official Baku would appeal to the local Armenian population, and those who wished to live according to the laws of Azerbaijan would return to their homes.
This did not happen at that time, unfortunately. But this will happen sooner or later. Azerbaijan must restore its sovereignty over Khankendi and the rest of the territory of Karabakh.
But the first step that Azerbaijan should take at this moment is the establishment of a border and customs checkpoint at the entrance to the road connecting Armenia with Khankendi. Because weapons are imported through this road, foreigners go to Khankendi without hindrance, without obtaining an Azerbaijani visa. Only after taking control of this road can we talk about solving other issues.
Expert on Russian policy in the region
“We have to wait at least three years”
“To restore Azerbaijan’s sovereignty over Khankendi and other settlements that are now under the control of peacekeepers, we must wait at least three years. Baku cannot afford clashes with Russian troops in Karabakh because this will create even greater risks. And so relations with Moscow are not the best today. No one needs extra stress.
But anti-terrorist operations are quite possible, which have already taken place several times in the territory controlled by peacekeepers.
As for the means of governing in Khankendi in the future, the strategy of self-government through municipalities is likely, but under the influence of the laws of the Republic of Azerbaijan.
I repeat that this will be possible only in three years and everything is moving towards this,” Shahinoglu said.
On the speech of the head of state television
Shahinoglu also raised the subject of the harsh speech of the head of the Azerbaijani state television AzTV, Rovshan Mammadov:
“As for the speech of the chairman of state television in his program with threats against Russian peacekeepers, this is clearly the position of official Baku. Through the lips of the head of television, the Azerbaijani leadership expressed its attitude to the issue. We, as independent experts, have been talking about this topic for a long time, but AzTV even surpassed us with its rhetoric and threatening tone.
I think that this is the right policy, and the parties involved in the resolution process should know the position of Baku in an undisguised form.
The Kremlin has long used the same tactic, occasionally showing its true colors through state television channels. I think it should be accepted as normal.”
“Russia is not interested in a resolution of the conflict”
To the question: “Why is Russia not interested in a resolution of the conflict?” Shahinoglu replied:
“Everything is simple here. Georgia has long been lost to Moscow. Armenia also took the pro-Western line. Azerbaijan has made its choice in favor of an alliance with Turkey, which is a member of NATO. Russia’s only support in the region remains the unrecognized regime of Khankendi.
And if Russian troops withdraw from Karabakh, they may lose the entire South Caucasus. But here it is obvious that Azerbaijan does not want to extend the period of stay of peacekeepers on its territory.
It is obvious that such a situation can lead to new armed conflicts, for which we must be prepared.”
Expert on Russian policy in the region
