2025 Presidential elections in Abkhazia : ruling party candidate and opposition leader compete for Kremlin loyalty
2025 presidential elections in Abkhazia
In February 2025, early presidential elections will be held in Abkhazia, with five politicians intending to participate. These include the candidate from the current government, the opposition leader, and three “dark horses.” There is no clear favorite among them who could win the election in the first round.
The former president, Aslan Bzhania, who resigned early (or rather, was removed from office), will not participate in the upcoming elections. Although he had previously stated his intention to run, his entourage, realistically assessing the situation, deemed the idea doomed to failure. As a result, the ruling party’s candidate is Vice President Badra Gunba.
The main, and perhaps only, obvious advantage for Gunba is the open support from Moscow. For the first time in many years, the Kremlin has changed its approach to the Abkhazian elections. Usually, it didn’t matter much who would sit in the presidential chair, as any politician in Abkhazia was inherently willing to cooperate with Moscow. But this time, the Kremlin has placed its bet on one specific candidate.
This is clearly linked to the events of November in Abkhazia, when the opposition, after storming the government complex, forced Aslan Bzhania to resign, and under its pressure, the parliament did not ratify the Russian-Abkhaz investment agreement. This made the Kremlin seriously question the loyalty and pro-Russian stance of the Abkhaz opposition. But Badra Gunba is someone they “can count on.” At least, compared to opposition leader Adgur Ardzinba, who is also aiming for the presidency.
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However, Ardzinba himself tries to emphasize in every possible way that he is also fully pro-Russian.
“I and my team — we are all citizens of Russia. Our entire team consists of active individuals who have been actively involved in the Special Military Operation from the very beginning. We were among those who initiated the rally in support of Russia’s foreign policy at the stadium in Sukhum. Over 50 people from Abkhazia have already lost their lives in the Special Military Operation.
Vladimir Putin is perceived in Abkhazia as a supra-national leader. We are aligned with Russia’s geopolitical course and have no intention of leaving,” said Ardzinba, as quoted by Russia’s Independent Newspaper.
If Gunba and Ardzinba represent the political extremes, the other three presidential candidates can be considered centrists.
These are:
- Former trade representative of Abkhazia in Russia Oleg Bartsits;
- Former head of the Republic’s Accounts Chamber Robert Arshba;
- Leader of the People’s Party of Abkhazia Shamil Adzinba.
They are not the favorites in the presidential race, but they could still attract a significant percentage of votes, potentially taking support from both Gunba and Adgur Ardzinba. As a result, most experts agree that no candidate will gain more than 50% of the vote in the first round.
However, given the level of protest sentiment in Abkhazian society and the unpredictability of the situation overall, it is possible that one of these “outsiders” could eliminate one of the initial favorites in the first round.
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