Can Ukraine recapture Bakhmut? How will the outcome of this months-long battle affect the course of the war?
Who controls Bakhmut
The head of Wagner Yevgeny Prigozhin, the Russian leadership and President Putin claim that Bakhmut has been taken. But the Ukrainian military denies it. The situation inside the city is critical; the Ukrainian defenders of the city report powerful volleys of artillery fire and carpet bombing.
The battle for Bakhmut has been going on for almost a year and the city has become both a symbol of Ukrainian resistance and the determination of Russian leaders to achieve victory.
Russian messages
Prigozhin was the first to report the capture of the city on the morning of May 21, along with statements about the “liberation of Bakhmut” from the Russian Ministry of Defense and the Kremlin.
“Vladimir Putin congratulates the Wagner assault detachments and the soldiers of the Russian Armed Forces, who provided them with the necessary support and flank cover on the completion of the operation to liberate Artemovsk. All those who have distinguished themselves will be presented for state awards,” the Kremlin press service said.
Who controls Bakhmut
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Ukrainian messages
President Zelensky clarified while answering journalists’ questions at a G7 press conference in Hiroshima in Japan. His wording, including that Bakhmut “remains in our hearts”, gave many reasons to consider this an acknowledgment of the surrender of the city. But then Zelensky and his press office categorically stated that the battle continues, Ukrainian troops are still in the city, and it has not been captured by Russian troops.
Zelensky compared Hiroshima to Bakhmut: “What happened in Hiroshima reminds me of Bakhmut.”
The representative of the Eastern Group of Forces of the Armed Forces of Ukraine, Serhiy Cherevaty, in a commentary to Suspіlna, said the Ukrainian military is holding positions in the southwestern part of the city.
Cherevaty said the Ukrainian army is “trying to press on the flanks, haunt them and counterattack if possible,” adding: “Russia attaches too much symbolic meaning to Bakhmut. The city has been destroyed, it does not bring any military or even political benefit to them.”
Who controls Bakhmut
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Deputy Defense Minister Anna Malyar also wrote about the movement of Ukrainian troops on the flanks on her Telegram channel: “Our troops took the city into a semi-encirclement, which gives us the opportunity to destroy the enemy. Our defenders maintain control over the industrial and infrastructure facilities and the private sector of Bakhmut in the Samolet [Litak] area.”
“The battle for Bakhmut is not over yet,” the commander of the Ukrainian ground forces, General Alexander Syrskoy, said.
Who controls Bakhmut
The city stands in a lowland near a range of hills that form a natural defensive line for the Ukrainian forces. Before the war Bakhmut was an important transport hub, but after a series of defeats suffered by Ukrainian forces in the summer of 2022, the roads through Bakhmut lost their importance for defense.
Summer 2022
“After leaving Lisichansk and Severodonetsk in the summer of 2022, the Ukrainian authorities apparently decided that they should not lose a single city again,” Meduza writes.
For the first time, Russian forces approached Bakhmut in early August 2022. But until October, no real attempts were made to storm it. In autumn, detachments of Wagner mercenaries approached, and until December there were battles on the outskirts of the city.
December 2022
But by the end of the year, mercenaries from among the prisoners began to arrive en masse in this sector of the front, and Wagner made several successive breakthroughs.
Winter 2023
Soledar was taken on January 11. In February 2023, PMC mercenaries were able to bypass Bakhmut from the west and north.
There was a real threat of encirclement of the city.
The Ukrainian command was faced with the question of withdrawing the garrison from the city. But Kyiv did the opposite. Large reserves were transferred to Bakhmut, and Ukrainian forces managed to prevent the encirclement of the city.
However, it was not possible to restore the normal supply of this front line and so it was impossible to strengthen those defending the city.
Spring 2023
Ukrainian casualties in Bakhmut were so high that, according to leaked Pentagon documents, the U.S. advised Ukraine to leave the city — a move both Zelensky and the Ukrainian military leadership vehemently dismissed as even a possibility.
Huge losses and supply problems were incurred by Wagner. However, the capture of Bakhmut turned out to be the most important symbolic goal for Prigozhin himself.
May-2023
As a result, despite Prigozhin’s public complaints about the lack of ammunition, in May his artillery destroyed several blocks of high-rise buildings from where units of the Armed Forces of Ukraine were fighting. The Ukrainian military moved from there to garages and fields outside the city.
Who controls Bakhmut
Why are Ukrainians and Russians ready to do anything for Bakhmut?
Both the Ukrainian and Russian military have repeatedly stated that the main goal is not the city itself, but the ability to “grind down” and “exhaust” the enemy’s forces.
Military analysts and some Ukrainian officials have said their persistence in Bakhmut serves two strategic purposes related to the expected counteroffensive: weakening Russian forces and forcing Russian commanders to move troops from other sectors of the front, weakening defensive positions.
Can Ukrainian forces take Bakhmut?
Theoretically, yes.
In early May 2023 the Ukrainian Armed Forces began attacks along the entire front line near Bakhmut. By that time Wagner mercenaries had left these areas, and the Russian units that replaced them quickly retreated.
The roads to Bakhmut have been unblocked. And although the city’s defense garrison had been practically ousted from there by that time, the offensive of the Armed Forces of Ukraine removed the threat of a breakthrough of Russian forces to the important point of Chasovy Yar.
In addition, the Russian forces may now have problems in defense. If the Wagner detachments leave Bakhmut, as Prigozhin claims, a segment of the front of several tens of kilometers will need to be covered with new reserves of the Russian army. Moreover, experienced troops will be required; units formed from mobilized and “volunteers” have shown themselves unstable in the face of attacks by the Armed Forces of Ukraine in recent weeks.
However, it is possible that the presence of Wagner in the area will remain if its old conflict with the Russian Ministry of Defense is resolved.
Judging by the fact that the pace of the Ukrainian offensive has slowed down after the first successes, the forces involved in them are not enough to break through the Russian defenses.
Probably for the success of the operation to encircle Bakhmut, the Ukrainian command should transfer additional reserves here. But this will weaken the offensive potential of the Armed Forces of Ukraine in other, more important from a strategic point of view, directions.
If the Armed Forces of Ukraine succeed in freeing Bakhmut, the significance of this victory for Ukraine will be more symbolic than strategic, just as holding the city would be for Russia.
