'This is not Turkish or Hungarian model, but Belarusian-Russian or Azerbaijani farce' — opinion on Georgia’s municipal elections

Lawyer on Georgia’s municipal elections

Lawyer Saba Brachveli commented on the upcoming local elections in Georgia on social media, stating that this is not the Turkish or Hungarian model — where elections, while flawed, cannot be fully rigged — but rather a Belarusian-Russian or Azerbaijani farce. In his view, when “you too get cancelled,” thinking about local elections will be just as pointless as registering as a foreign agent in June.

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1. By 5 May, the parliamentary commission will complete its work. Based on its conclusions, the Constitutional Court will ban all genuinely opposition parties. The registry will refuse to register new parties — as it already does;
2. Meanwhile, the new ‘foreign agents’ law will destroy the civil sector. Even if Georgian Dream doesn’t manage to kill it off entirely, civil society groups won’t be allowed to observe the elections anyway — since the same body, the Anti-Corruption Bureau, oversees both the elections and the implementation of the foreign agent law;
3. At the same time, key critical TV stations will either be shut down due to funding restrictions or suffocated with fines under the amended broadcasting law;
4. With the field cleared, Georgian Dream will call early [municipal] elections, with only themselves and their satellites participating. They’ll secure a constitutional majority. What follows will be the repeal of Article 78 of Georgia’s Constitution — which defines the country’s Euro-Atlantic course — joining the ‘3+3’ platform (which includes Russia, Iran, Turkey, Azerbaijan and Armenia), and further acts of betrayal.”

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All of this can be carried out either before the local elections or alongside them. This plan doesn’t require the physical arrest of opposition leaders — though that scenario can’t be ruled out. If someone strikes a deal with Georgian Dream, they might delay introducing certain laws or banning some opposition parties, and perhaps even release some political prisoners. But the broader picture and the long-term plan will remain unchanged. Any steps they hold back on now will simply be implemented next year.

I cannot imagine how anyone can speak about local elections without acknowledging this obvious context.

The enthusiasm of those following the 2024 parliamentary election results in major cities is understandable — they believe Georgian Dream’s defeat in the [municipal elections] is not impossible. However:

1. In 2024, the elections saw one of the highest turnouts in history — people weren’t disheartened; on the contrary, they were highly motivated. In 2025, the opposite will happen;
2. The civil sector will no longer be able to carry out mobilisation or election observation missions. The media will no longer be able to broadcast electoral fraud live;
3. If the opposition is even allowed to participate in the elections, it will need joint candidates and strategic voting. That currently seems unlikely — which means Georgian Dream will take all the majoritarian seats. The same will happen in city councils, as under the amended law, they will mostly consist of candidates elected via the majoritarian system, without a runoff;
4. Previous elections attracted significant international attention — both political and observational. While that didn’t stop Georgian Dream from conducting elections under unfair rules, it did at least deter certain forms of fraud and allowed observer organisations to monitor the process. The 2025 local elections won’t receive the same level of attention;

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And all of this is before we even mention the elephant in the room — electoral fraud. We have neither internal nor external mechanisms to prevent it. Replacing Liluashvili, the head of the Security Service, with Okhanashvili, a political loyalist, signals a shift towards even more blatant illegality and repression. Don’t be misled by claims that this is simply because Liluashvili’s term was ending and he couldn’t be reappointed — that could’ve been fixed in two days by tweaking a single paragraph of the law. Wouldn’t that have been easier than creating an entirely new ministry?

In short, talking about municipal elections now — when we don’t even know whether the opposition will be allowed to participate — is a waste of time and resources that should be directed elsewhere.

Even if a miracle happens and another party wins in a city despite the fraud, and the Central Election Commission recognises the victory, and the courts don’t overturn it, the central government will eventually cut off funding (as it did in the Tsalenjikha municipality), and the opposition will once again be blamed for the resulting deadlock.

Please look at the full electoral authoritarianism already in place in Georgia. This is not the Turkish or Hungarian model, where elections — while unfair — can’t be completely rigged. This is a Belarusian-Russian or Azerbaijani farce. When you and your key supporters and international partners are stripped of electoral rights, talking about municipal elections is as pointless as talking about registering as a foreign agent in June. The fate of this country will be decided by autumn. Please, get yourself a pair of lenses for political short-sightedness.

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